2018 yilgi Italiyada bo'lib o'tadigan umumiy saylovlar bo'yicha fikr-mulohazalar - Opinion polling for the 2018 Italian general election

Ushbu maqola yig'iladi uchun so'rovlar 2018 yil Italiyada umumiy saylov, 4 mart kuni bo'lib o'tdi.

Sana oralig'i oldingi umumiy saylovlar, 2013 yil 24-25 fevral kunlari, yangi saylovlardan ikki hafta oldin, 16 fevral 2018 yil.[1] Italiya ostida par Condicio (teng sharoitlar) qonuni, saylov kampaniyasining so'nggi ikki haftasida ommaviy so'rovlarni nashr etish taqiqlanadi.[2][3] So'rov natijalari e'lon qilingan kundan farqli o'laroq, dala ishlari olib borilgan sanada e'lon qilinadi. Ammo, agar bunday sana noma'lum bo'lsa, uning o'rniga nashr etilgan sana beriladi.

Partiya ovozi

Ma'lumotlar Forza Italia (FI) 2013 yil 16-noyabrgacha avvalgisiga murojaat qiladi, Ozodlik xalqi (PdL), uning erishi paytida ikkiga bo'lingan Yangi markaz-o'ng (NCD). Beri 2014 yil Evropa parlamentiga saylov so'rovlarning aksariyati hisoblangan Markazning birlashmasi (UdC) NCD bilan birgalikda, hatto 2016 yil dekabridan keyin ham, ikki tomon yo'llarini ajratib bo'lgach. 2014 yil dekabridan beri natijalar Lega Nord (LN) uning singil partiyasini o'z ichiga olgan Biz Salvini bilan (NcS). 2015 yil noyabr oyidan beri Chap ekologiya erkinligi (SEL) kabi so'rov o'tkazila boshlandi Italiya chap (SI), bundan oldin unga 2017 yil fevral oyida birlashtirildi. Xuddi shu oyda Demokratik partiya (PD) va Italiya chap tomoni tashkil etdi Demokratik va progressiv harakat (MDP), boshqa chapchilar esa qisqa muddatli hayotni boshladilar Progressiv lager (CP). 2017 yil mart oyida NCD o'zgartirildi Ommabop alternativ (AP). 2017 yil dekabrda MDP, SI va kichik guruhlar nomlangan qo'shma ro'yxatni boshladi Bepul va teng (LeU).

Saylov oldidan yana bir nechta saylov ro'yxatlari tuzildi, xususan Ko'proq Evropa (+ Eu), Birgalikda (Men), Xalqqa kuch (PaP), Biz Italiya bilan (NcI) va Ommabop fuqarolar ro'yxati (CP). Bundan tashqari, ikkita kengroq ittifoq tuzildi: markaz-chap koalitsiyasi va markaz-o'ng koalitsiyasi.

Ba'zi so'rovnomalarda quyidagilar bo'lishi mumkin Kommunistik Refoundation Party PaP o'rniga PaP a'zosi (PRC).

Grafik xulosa

So'rovnomaning o'rtacha 6 ballik yo'nalishi 2013 yil 25 fevraldan hozirgi kungacha, har bir satr siyosiy partiyaga to'g'ri keladi.
  PD
  M5S
  PdL /FI
  SC
  NCD /AP
  LN
  SEL / SI / LeU
  FDI
  UDC
  MDP
  CP
  + Eu
  Men
  CP
  NcI
  PaP
  CPI

2018

SanaOvoz berish firmasiNamuna
hajmi
Markazdan chapgaMarkaz o'ngdaM5SLeUPaPCPIBoshqalarQo'rg'oshin
PD+ EuMenCPFILNFDINcI
4 Mar 2018Umumiy saylov18.82.60.60.514.017.44.31.332.73.41.10.92.413.9
12-16 fevralTermometro Politico4,50021.32.80.90.915.914.85.01.826.35.31.71.81.55.0
14-15 fevralDemopolis2,00022.52.52.016.514.25.02.328.06.01.05.5
14 fevralEvromedia80022.12.30.80.517.314.24.82.326.85.80.62.14.7
13-14 fevralPiepoli50524.53.01.00.516.013.05.03.027.06.00.50.52.5
12-14 fevralNamoyishlar1,01421.93.516.313.24.827.86.16.45.9
12-14 fevralIxè1,00021.53.50.60.718.010.84.71.828.16.02.02.36.6
12-14 fevralIndeks80022.82.21.01.216.413.84.92.427.65.91.84.8
12-14 fevralSWG2,00023.52.90.81.015.213.44.42.228.35.90.91.54.8
5-14 fevralDemetra6,00623.72.60.50.615.014.74.40.629.45.31.30.61.35.7
13 fevralIPR22.02.81.02.016.514.54.53.028.54.51.00.56.5
13 fevralPiepoli25.02.51.00.516.013.05.02.527.06.00.51.02.0
12-13 fevralTecnè1,00121.82.618.312.85.02.928.35.33.06.5
12 fevralEvromedia80022.42.00.70.517.514.14.82.227.06.10.81.94.6
8-12 fevralBidimedia1,30024.41.91.01.416.314.53.92.525.34.61.21.11.90.9
9-11 fevralEMG1,61422.82.11.61.016.113.94.62.827.35.20.80.61.24.5
8-11 fevralLorien1,00023.61.20.81.517.912.34.61.227.65.02.71.50.24.0
8 fevralSWG1,00023.32.80.81.315.713.14.82.028.06.50.71.04.7
8 fevralIndeks80023.51.91.51.115.714.15.02.627.36.01.33.8
7-8 fevralDemopolis1,00022.816.314.04.728.35.88.15.5
6-8 fevralEMG1,68322.42.01.61.015.014.64.62.828.15.72.25.7
3-8 fevralTermometro Politico3,50021.92.10.70.515.314.85.52.026.85.31.51.91.74.9
6-7 fevralTecnè1,00322.11.618.313.24.92.928.05.73.35.9
5-7 fevralIxè1,00022.13.00.80.717.311.14.82.028.36.51.32.16.2
5 fevralPiepoli50025.03.01.00.516.014.05.02.527.06.50.20.32.0
2-4 fevralEMG1,74223.01.91.61.015.814.34.62.827.25.42.04.2
1-4 fevralLorien1,00024.01.20.21.617.112.34.41.628.15.72.41.10.34.1
30 yanvar - 2 fevralBidimedia1,23524.21.61.21.616.213.34.22.226.25.01.10.92.32.0
22 yanvar - 2 fevralTermometro Politico4,00022.01.91.20.615.514.05.31.526.85.61.61.82.34.8
1 fevralEvromedia80023.81.61.10.817.813.84.52.327.25.70.70.33.4
1 fevralIndeks80023.81.61.81.115.813.75.02.526.96.31.73.1
1 fevralPiepoli80025.52.50.50.515.013.04.52.527.56.50.52.0
30 yanvar - 1 fevralEMG1,70223.81.61.81.016.013.64.82.826.95.32.03.1
29 yanvar - 1 fevralIxè1,00022.02.60.40.817.011.54.32.028.77.31.22.26.7
29-31 yanvarSWG1,50023.72.01.01.115.912.95.12.328.46.00.51.14.7
29-yanvarTecnè89822.21.618.312.85.12.827.86.23.25.6
28-29 yanvarDemopolis1,50023.016.014.04.529.56.06.5
26-28 yanvarEMG1,77824.01.61.71.015.913.85.02.826.55.72.02.5
25-yanvarEvromedia80024.31.50.61.118.413.64.52.126.46.00.51.02.1
25-yanvarIndeks80024.01.31.61.015.813.75.22.127.06.51.83.0
25-yanvarPiepoli50625.52.50.50.515.013.54.52.527.57.01.02.0
22-25 yanvarIxè1,00021.82.00.70.916.711.94.42.229.27.03.27.4
23-24 yanvarIpsos1,00022.74.016.913.74.61.129.36.11.66.6
22–24 yanvarSWG1,50024.01.50.91.316.013.05.52.227.86.40.40.63.8
22-23 yanvarTecnè1,50122.31.718.312.55.32.827.46.33.45.1
22-yanvarLorien1,00025.31.10.21.415.912.24.01.429.25.91.53.9
22-yanvarIPR22.02.01.02.016.012.06.03.028.06.02.06.0
19-22 yanvarTecnè80122.31.818.212.65.42.827.06.23.74.7
19-21 yanvarEMG1,80323.71.41.61.016.013.95.12.727.06.11.13.3
17-19 yanvarIxè1,00022.31.90.61.217.411.34.52.527.87.43.15.5
16-17 yanvarIndeks80024.01.41.51.015.613.65.31.527.56.51.13.5
15-17 yanvarSWG1,50023.61.20.81.316.013.25.72.027.36.80.71.43.7
15-yanvarPiepoli81025.01.51.01.015.014.05.02.527.07.01.02.0
15-yanvarEvromedia80024.21.80.41.218.013.54.42.426.36.00.61.22.1
12-14 yanvarEMG1,88923.81.41.51.115.713.85.52.626.86.01.43.0
10-11 yanvarDemopolis1,50023.53.515.613.85.01.929.26.51.05.7
10-11 yanvarIpsos99823.11.21.41.816.513.84.70.928.76.40.70.85.6
9-11 yanvarEMG1,61123.51.31.51.115.313.55.52.427.95.82.24.4
8-10 yanvarIxè2,00023.11.71.717.211.84.92.427.87.02.44.7
8-10 yanvarIndeks80024.01.51.70.815.013.75.41.628.06.22.14.0
8-10 yanvarSWG1,50023.11.30.91.416.713.15.71.626.76.80.72.03.6
9-yanvarIPR22.02.50.52.516.013.06.32.728.05.01.56.0
6-9 yanvarBidimedia1,14324.11.31.01.416.112.94.52.527.05.90.90.61.82.9
8-yanvarTecnè1,00020.74.318.012.65.32.628.16.71.77.4
6-8 yanvarDemopolis1,00024.02.515.314.05.01.929.07.01.35.0
5-7 yanvarEMG1,60324.11.41.51.014.813.65.52.228.25.62.14.1

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

Koalitsiya ovozi

2018

SanaOvoz berish firmasiMarkazdan chapgaMarkaz o'ngdaM5SLeUBoshqalarQo'rg'oshin
4 Mar 2018Umumiy saylov22.837.032.73.43.14.3
12-16 fevralTermometro Politico26.337.526.35.34.611.2
14-15 fevralDemopolis27.038.028.06.01.010.0
14 fevralEvromedia26.138.626.85.82.711.8
13-14 fevralPiepoli29.337.027.06.00.27.7
12-14 fevralIndeks27.237.527.65.91.89.9
12-14 fevralSWG28.635.228.35.92.06.6
5-14 fevralDemetra27.434.729.45.33.25.3
13 fevralIPR28.238.528.54.50.310.0
13 fevralPiepoli29.337.027.06.00.77.7
12 fevralEvromedia26.038.627.06.12.311.6
8-12 fevralBidimedia29.237.225.34.63.78.0
9-11 fevralEMG27.937.427.35.22.29.5
8-11 fevralLorien27.136.027.65.04.38.4
8 fevralSWG28.535.628.06.51.47.1
8 fevralIndeks28.037.427.36.01.39.4
7-8 fevralDemopolis27.537.228.35.81.28.9
6-8 fevralEMG27.437.028.15.71.88.9
3-8 fevralTermometro Politico25.637.626.85.34.710.8
6-7 fevralTecnè25.739.328.05.71.311.9
5-7 fevralIxè26.635.928.36.52.77.6
5 fevralPiepoli29.836.527.06.50.26.7
2-4 fevralEMG27.937.527.25.42.09.6
1-4 fevralLorien27.035.628.15.73.67.5
30 yanvar - 2 fevralBidimedia29.135.926.25.03.86.8
22 yanvar - 2 fevralTermometro Politico26.136.326.85.65.29.5
30 yanvar - 1 fevralEMG28.637.226.95.32.08.6
29 yanvar - 1 fevralIxè25.835.328.77.32.96.6
1 fevralEvromedia27.738.427.25.71.010.7
1 fevralPiepoli29.535.527.56.50.56.0
1 fevralIndeks28.337.326.96.31.29.0
29-31 yanvarSWG28.136.228.46.01.57.8
29-yanvarTecnè25.939.027.86.21.111.2
26-28 yanvarEMG28.737.526.55.71.68.8
25-yanvarEvromedia27.839.126.46.01.011.3
25-yanvarIndeks27.937.327.06.51.89.4
25-yanvarPiepoli29.035.527.57.01.06.5
23-24 yanvarIpsos26.736.329.36.11.67.0
22-25 yanvarIxè25.435.429.27.03.06.2
22-24 yanvarSWG28.136.727.86.41.08.6
22-23 yanvarTecnè26.139.027.46.31.211.6
22-yanvarLorien28.034.029.25.91.04.8
22-yanvarPiepoli29.035.527.57.01.06.5
22-yanvarIPR27.037.028.06.02.09.0
19-22 yanvarTecnè26.339.227.06.21.312.3
19-21 yanvarEMG28.137.727.06.11.19.6
17-19 yanvarIxè26.035.727.87.43.17.9
16-17 yanvarIndeks27.937.027.56.51.19.1
15-17 yanvarSWG27.337.227.36.81.49.9
15-yanvarPiepoli28.536.527.07.01.08.0
15-yanvarEvromedia27.939.026.36.00.811.1
12-14 yanvarEMG28.237.626.86.01.49.4
10-11 yanvarDemopolis27.036.329.26.57.1
10-11 yanvarIpsos27.535.928.76.41.57.2
9–11-yanvarEMG27.837.627.95.81.89.7
8-10 yanvarIxè26.536.327.87.02.48.5
9-yanvarIPR27.538.028.05.01.510.0
8-10 yanvarIndeks28.036.727.96.51.18.7
8-10 yanvarSWG27.137.626.76.81.810.5
8-yanvarTecnè25.039.228.16.71.011.1
6-9 yanvarBidimedia28.436.027.05.92.77.6
6-8 yanvarDemopolis26.536.229.07.01.37.2
5-7 yanvarEMG28.436.128.25.61.77.7
6-yanvarYouTrend27.934.627.36.83.46.7

2017

O'rindiqlarning proektsiyalari

Deputatlar palatasi

  • 630 o'rindiq mavjud. Ko'pchilik uchun 316 o'rin kerak.
  • Ba'zi bir so'rovlarda faqat Italiyadagi 618 saylov okrugi ajratilgan, chet elda esa 12 ta saylov okrugi qoldirilgan.
SanaOvoz berish firmasiMarkazdan chapgaMarkaz o'ngdaM5SLeUBoshqalarQo'rg'oshinKo'pchilik
4 Mar 2018Umumiy saylov12226522714238–51
2018 yil 15-fevralIndeks15129514725144–21
14 fevral 2018 yilEvromedia1562731342628117–43
2018 yil 13-14 fevralPiepoli16628114526115–35
12-14 fevralIxè123–141264–297132–182244–6982–165–52 dan –19 gacha
2018 yil 8-fevralIndeks15629414325138–22
2018 yil 7-fevralIxè143296161264135–20
2018 yil 2-fevralYouTrend **15328415625128–32
2018 yil 29 yanvar - 1 fevralIxè134290172304118–26
25-yanvar, 2018-yilPiepoli16226815929106–48
25-yanvar, 2018-yilYouTrend **14728815528133–28
22-25 yanvar 2018Ixè130290177294113–26
19-21 yanvar 2018EMG136–176259–299139–17922–26120–17
17-19 yanvar 2018Ixè137299161294138–17
2018 yil 18-yanvarIpsos1542661702796–50
2018 yil 10–11-yanvarIpsos15226916927100–47
6-yanvar, 2018-yilYouTrend1872651402678–51
1-yanvar, 2018 yilYouTrend158280157287122–36
2017 yil 29-31 dekabrWinpoll1342761793097–40
22 dekabr 2017 yilIxè138292167294125–24
21 dekabr 2017 yilYouTrend1872651402678–51
19 dekabr 2017 yilIpos15128115827123–35
30 Noyabr 2017YouTrend16926715324498–49
23 noyabr 2017 yilIxè162270165258105–46
8 Noyabr 2017Ipos16425217323479–64
27 oktyabr 2017 yilIpos16224817825470–68
25 oktyabr 2017 yilYouTrend18222118922432–95
2017 yil 24-25 oktyabrDemopolis1802461682466–70
20 oktyabr 2017 yilIndeks18126117216Yo'q80–55
18 oktyabr 2017 yilKattaneo213209170264–103
12 oktyabr 2017 yilIpos17423817823460–78
12 oktyabr 2017 yilYouTrend18222118922432–95

Respublika Senati

  • 315 o'rin mavjud, shuningdek umr bo'yi 6 senator. Ko'pchilik uchun 161 o'rin kerak.
  • Ba'zi so'rovlarda faqat Italiyadagi 309 ta saylov okrugi ajratilgan, chet elda 6 ta saylov okrugi qoldirilgan.
SanaOvoz berish firmasiMarkazdan chapgaMarkaz o'ngdaM5SLeUBoshqalarQo'rg'oshinKo'pchilik
4 Mar 2018Umumiy saylov601371124225–24
2018 yil 13-14 fevralPiepoli92134721142–27
2018 yil 7-fevralIxè681538012273–8
1 Fev 2018YouTrend77140801260–21
2018 yil 29 yanvar - 1 fevralIxè651508414266–11
25-yanvar, 2018-yilYouTrend79140771361–21
22-25 yanvar 2018Ixè611528713265–9
17-19 yanvar 2018Ixè651538213271–8
6-yanvar, 2018-yilYouTrend801377814657–24
1-yanvar, 2018 yilYouTrend821337915651–28
2017 yil 29-31 dekabrWinpoll71138871351–23
22 dekabr 2017 yilIxè681518311258–10
23 noyabr 2017 yilIxè81135858640–26

Adabiyotlar

  1. ^ "Ichki ishlar vazirligi" (italyan tilida). Elezioni.interno.it. Olingan 26 fevral 2013.
  2. ^ https://www.agcom.it/diffusione-dei-sondaggi
  3. ^ http://www.huffingtonpost.it/luigi-crespi/il-blocco-dei-sondaggi-e-il-trionfo-dellipocrisia_a_23365999