Global isish bo'yicha tortishuvlar - Global warming controversy
2 chiqindilarni IPCC ning beshtasiga nisbatan "SRES "emissiya stsenariylari. Diplar global retsessiyalar bilan bog'liq. Tasvir manbai: Skeptik fan.
The global isish bo'yicha tortishuvlar yoki yo'qligi haqidagi jamoatchilik muhokamasiga tegishli Global isish sodir bo'lmoqda, hozirgi zamonda qancha narsa yuz berdi, nima sabab bo'ldi, nima effektlar bo'ladi, buni to'xtatish uchun har qanday choralar ko'rilishi mumkin yoki kerak bo'ladimi va agar shunday bo'lsa, bu qanday harakat bo'lishi kerak. In ilmiy adabiyotlar bor global sirt harorati oshganligi to'g'risida qat'iy konsensus so'nggi o'n yilliklarda va ushbu tendentsiya inson tomonidan kelib chiqadigan emissiya tufayli yuzaga keladi issiqxona gazlari.[1][2][3][4][5][6] Milliy yoki xalqaro miqyosdagi ilmiy biron bir tashkilot yo'q ushbu nuqtai nazardan rozi emas,[7] a'zolari bo'lgan bir nechta tashkilotlar bo'lsa ham qazib olish sohalari tutmoq majburiy bo'lmagan pozitsiyalar,[8] va ba'zilari jamoatchilikni iqlim o'zgarishi sodir bo'lmayotganiga ishontirishga harakat qildilar yoki agar iqlim o'zgarib borsa, bu inson ta'siriga bog'liq emas,[9] ilmiy konsensusda shubha tug'dirishga urinish.[10]
Qarama-qarshiliklar hozirgi kunga kelib ilmiy jihatdan emas, balki siyosiy: global isish yuz berayotgani va inson faoliyati sabab bo'lganligi to'g'risida ilmiy kelishuv mavjud.[11] Iqlim isishining asosiy ilmiy dalillari bo'yicha tortishuvlar ko'proq tarqalgan ommaviy axborot vositalari ilmiy adabiyotlarga qaraganda, bu kabi masalalar hal qilingan deb qaraladi va bunday tortishuvlar ko'proq tarqalgan Qo'shma Shtatlar dan global miqyosda.[12][13]
Global isish borligi va sababi bilan bog'liq siyosiy va ommaviy munozaralarda o'sish sabablari mavjud instrumental harorat yozuvi, isish tendentsiyasi odatdagi iqlim o'zgarishidan oshib ketadimi yoki yo'qmi bunga inson faoliyati katta hissa qo'shdi. Olimlar ushbu savollarni hozirgi isish tendentsiyasi mavjud va davom etmoqda, buning sababi inson faoliyati va kamida 2000 yil ichida mislsiz holat degan fikrni ijobiy hal qilishdi.[14] Ilmiy bahs-munozaralarni aks ettiradigan jamoat bahslari iqlim tizimining har qanday darajadagi issiqxona gazlariga qanchalik mos kelishi mumkinligi haqidagi taxminlarni o'z ichiga oladi (iqlim sezgirligi ), iqlim mahalliy va mintaqaviy miqyosda qanday o'zgaradi va nima global isishning oqibatlari bo'ladi.
Global isish keng tarqalgan siyosiy munozaralarning dolzarb masalasi bo'lib qolmoqda, ko'pincha partiyalarning siyosiy yo'nalishlari bo'yicha bo'linadi, ayniqsa Qo'shma Shtatlarda.[15] Ilmiy hamjamiyat ichida hal qilinadigan ko'plab masalalar, masalan, global isish uchun insonning javobgarligi, ularni kamaytirish, rad etish yoki inkor etishga qaratilgan siyosiy yoki iqtisodiy asosli urinishlar mavzusi bo'lib qolmoqda - akademiklar va olimlar tomonidan tasniflangan mafkuraviy hodisa. iqlim o'zgarishini rad etish. Asosiy ilmiy pozitsiyalarga zid bo'lgan iqlimshunoslik bilan bog'liq bo'lganlarni moliyalashtirish manbalari shubha ostiga qo'yildi. Eng yaxshilar haqida bahslar mavjud fanga siyosiy javoblar, ularning iqtisodiy samaradorligi va dolzarbligi. Iqlimshunos olimlar, xususan, Qo'shma Shtatlar xabar berishdi hukumat va neft sanoatining bosimi ga tsenzurani yoki ishlarini bostirish va jamoat aloqalarida mavzuni muhokama qilmaslik to'g'risidagi ko'rsatmalar bilan ilmiy ma'lumotlarni yashirish. Global isish, uning ta'siri va uni kamaytirish choralari bilan bog'liq sud ishlari Amerika sudlariga etib bordi. The qazilma yoqilg'ilar lobbi global isish bo'yicha ilmiy konsensusni buzish yoki obro'sizlantirish bo'yicha harakatlarni ochiq yoki yashirin ravishda qo'llab-quvvatlovchi sifatida aniqlandi.[16]
Tarix
Jamoatchilik fikri
In Qo'shma Shtatlar, ommaviy axborot vositalari to shu kungacha global isishga ozgina bag'ishlangan qurg'oqchilik 1988 yil va Jeyms E. Xansen uchun guvohlik Senat Bu aniq "g'ayritabiiy issiq havo bizning millatimizni qiynayotganini" global isish bilan bog'lagan.[17]
1988 yil oxirida ingliz matbuoti o'z nutqidan so'ng o'z xabarlarini o'zgartirdi Margaret Tetcher uchun Qirollik jamiyati inson tomonidan kelib chiqadigan iqlim o'zgarishiga qarshi choralarni himoya qilish.[18] Akademik tahlilchi Anabela Karvaloning so'zlariga ko'ra, Tetcher iqlim o'zgarishi xavfini targ'ib qilish uchun "o'zlashtirishi" atom energiyasi, ko'mir sanoatini demontaj qilish sharoitida quyidagilar 1984–1985-yil konchilar ish tashlashi jamoat nutqining o'zgarishiga sabab bo'lgan. Shu bilan birga atrof-muhitni muhofaza qilish tashkilotlari va siyosiy muxolifat "hukumatnikiga qarama-qarshi bo'lgan echimlarni" talab qildilar.[19] 2013 yil may oyida Uels shahzodasi Charlz iqlim o'zgarishini rad etuvchilarni ham, korporativ lobbistlarni ham Erni o'layotgan bemorga o'xshatib tanqid qildi. "Ilmiy gipoteza mutlaqo yo'q qilinish uchun sinovdan o'tkaziladi, ammo tibbiyot kutib turolmaydi. Agar shifokor bolani isitmasi bilan ko'rsa, u [cheksiz] sinovlarni kutib o'tirmaydi. U bor narsaga amal qilishi kerak."[20]
Ko'pgina Evropa davlatlari kamaytirish uchun choralar ko'rdilar issiqxona gazi 1990 yilgacha emissiya. G'arbiy Germaniya dan keyin chora ko'rishni boshladi Yashil partiya 1980-yillarda parlamentdan o'rin egallagan. Barcha mamlakatlar Yevropa Ittifoqi 1997 yilni ratifikatsiya qildi Kioto protokoli. Tomonidan muhim faoliyat NNTlar ham bo'lib o'tdi.[21] The Amerika Qo'shma Shtatlarining Energiya ma'muriyati Qo'shma Shtatlarda "2012 yildagi pasayish shuni anglatadiki, chiqindi gazlar miqdori 1994 yildan beri eng past darajada va 2007 yildagi eng yuqori ko'rsatkichdan 12 foizdan past".[22]
Issiqxona gazlarida ko'payish nazariyasi haroratning ko'tarilishiga olib keladi, shved kimyogari Svante Arrhenius birinchi marta 1896 yilda taklif qilgan, ammo 1990-yillarga qadar iqlim o'zgarishi siyosiy masala sifatida paydo bo'lmagan. Ushbu alohida masala har qanday e'tiborni jalb qilish uchun ko'p yillar kerak bo'ldi.[23]
Evropada odamlarning iqlimga ta'siri tushunchasi Qo'shma Shtatlar va boshqa mamlakatlarga qaraganda tezroq qabul qilindi.[24][25] 2009 yilda o'tkazilgan so'rov natijalariga ko'ra, evropaliklar iqlim o'zgarishini "qashshoqlik, oziq-ovqat va ichimlik suvining etishmasligi" va "global iqtisodiy tanazzul" o'rtasidagi ikkinchi jiddiy muammo sifatida baholashdi. Evropaliklarning 87% iqlim o'zgarishini o'ta jiddiy yoki jiddiy muammo deb hisoblagan, o'n foiz esa buni jiddiy muammo deb hisoblamagan.[26]
2007 yilda BBC rejalashtirilgan televizion maxsus dastur bekor qilinganligini e'lon qildi Sayyoralarga yordam berish, bu global isish muammosini ta'kidlab, elektr energiyasini ommaviy ravishda o'chirishni o'z ichiga oladi.[27] BBC muharriri Newsnight dolzarb voqealar shousi shunday dedi: "Sayyorani qutqarish mutlaqo Bi-bi-sining vazifasi emas. Menimcha, buni o'ylaydiganlar juda ko'p, ammo buni to'xtatish kerak".[28] Muallif Mark Lynas "Bu muammoga aylanishining yagona sababi shundaki, o'ta o'ng iqlimning" skeptiklari "ning harakatga qarshi lobbi uyushtiradigan kichik, ammo shov-shuvli guruhi bor, shuning uchun Bi-bi-si o'zini qo'rqoq kabi tutmoqda va yanada barqarorroq pozitsiyadan voz kechmoqda. "[29]
2010 yilgi kitob mualliflari Shubha savdogarlari, professional inkorchilar odamlarning uglerod chiqindilari ta'sirini kamaytirish uchun har qanday mazmunli ijtimoiy yoki siyosiy taraqqiyotni to'xtatish uchun jamoatchilik fikriga shubha urug'ini sepishga uringani haqidagi da'vo uchun hujjatlarni taqdim eting. Amerika aholisining faqat yarmi global isishga inson faoliyati sabab bo'ladi, deb ishonishini bu rad etuvchilarning g'alabasi deb hisoblash mumkin.[13] Mualliflarning asosiy dalillaridan biri shundan iboratki, deyarli umumiy konsensusga qarshi chiqayotgan taniqli olimlarning aksariyati avtomobillar va neft kabi sanoat tomonidan moliyalashtiriladi, ular hukumat tomonidan tartibga solish bo'yicha harakatlari tufayli pul yo'qotadi issiqxona gazlari.[30]
Ijtimoiy isish haqidagi jamoatchilik fikri bo'yicha so'rov natijalari to'plami quyida keltirilgan.[31][32][33]
| Bayonot | % rozi | Yil |
|---|---|---|
| (BIZ) Global isish juda muhim[32] | 49 | 2006 |
| (Xalqaro) Iqlim o'zgarishi jiddiy muammo.[34] | 90 | 2006 |
| (Xalqaro) Inson faoliyati iqlim o'zgarishining muhim sababidir.[33] | 79 | 2007 |
| (BIZ) Yaqinda boshlanadigan katta qadamlarni tashlash kerak.[33] | 59 | 2007 |
| (BIZ) Odamlar faoliyati tufayli Yer isiydi[35] | 49 | 2009 |
2007 yilda jamoat idroklari to'g'risida hisobot Birlashgan Qirollik Ipsos MORI tomonidan[36] bu haqida xabar berdi
- Iqlim, sababidan qat'i nazar, o'zgarib borayotganini keng tan olishmoqda - 88% bu haqiqat deb hisoblaydi.
- Biroq jamoatchilik ilmiy jamoatchilik bilan aloqada emas, chunki 41% iqlim o'zgarishiga ham inson faoliyati, ham tabiiy jarayonlar sabab bo'ladi deb hisoblaydi. 46% inson faoliyati asosiy sabab deb hisoblaydi.
- Faqat oz sonli ozchilik antropogen iqlim o'zgarishini rad etadi, deyarli yarmi (44%) juda xavotirda. Biroq, to'liq ishontirilmagan va tahdid darajasiga shubha bilan qaraydigan katta qism mavjud.
- Qo'shimcha ma'lumot olish uchun jamoatchilik orasida hali ham kuchli ishtaha bor va ularning 63 foizi ushbu masala va ular uchun nimani anglatishi to'g'risida qat'iy fikrga kelishlari uchun bunga ehtiyoj borligini aytishadi.
- Jamiyat iqlim o'zgarishini boshqa odamlarga, joylarga va vaqtlarga nisbatan tashqi ko'rinishda davom ettiradi. Bu kelajakda avlodlar uchun katta oqibatlarga olib keladigan global miqyosdagi muhim muammo sifatida tobora ko'proq qabul qilinmoqda - 45% bu bugungi kunda dunyo oldida turgan eng jiddiy tahdid va 53% bu kelajak avlodlarga sezilarli ta'sir qiladi deb hisoblamoqda. Biroq, ushbu masala milliy va mahalliy darajada unchalik katta ahamiyatga ega emas, haqiqatan ham atigi 9% iqlim o'zgarishi shaxsan ularga sezilarli ta'sir ko'rsatishiga ishonadi.
The Kanadalik fan teleradiokompaniyasi va atrof-muhit faol Devid Suzuki tomonidan tashkil etilgan fokus guruhlar haqida hisobotlar Devid Suzuki jamg'armasi 2006 yilda jamoatchilik global isish ortidagi fanni yomon tushunishini ko'rsatdi.[37] Bu turli xil vositalar, shu jumladan filmlar orqali ommaviylikka qaramay Noqulay haqiqat va 11-soat.[38][39]
Kambag'al tushunchaning misoli global isish va global isish o'rtasidagi ommaviy chalkashliklardir ozon qatlami yoki boshqa ekologik muammolar.[40][41]
2006 yilda o'tkazilgan 15 mamlakat o'rtasida o'tkazilgan so'rovnoma Pew Global "global iqlim isishi bilan bog'liq katta bo'shliq mavjudligini aniqladi - taxminan uchdan ikki qismi Yapon (66%) va hindular (65%) o'zlari shaxsan global isishdan juda xavotirda ekanliklarini aytishadi. Ispaniya (51%) va Frantsiya (46%) aholisining qariyb yarmi ham bu masalani eshitganlarga asoslanib, global isishdan katta tashvish bildirmoqda. Ammo ikkalasida ham global isish haqida ogohlantiruvchi dalillar yo'q Qo'shma Shtatlar yoki Xitoy - issiqxona gazlarini ishlab chiqaruvchi ikkita yirik kompaniya. Ushbu masalani eshitgan amerikaliklarning atigi 19 foizi va xitoyliklarning 20 foizi global isishdan juda xavotirda ekanliklarini aytishdi - so'rovda qatnashgan 15 mamlakatda eng past foiz. Bundan tashqari, amerikaliklarning deyarli yarmi (47%) va biroz kamroq xitoyliklar (37%) muammoga nisbatan ozgina tashvish bildirmoqda. "[42]
Pew Global Attitude kompaniyasi tomonidan 2007 yilda o'tkazilgan 47 mamlakat o'rtasida o'tkazilgan so'rov natijalariga ko'ra, "37 mamlakatdan 25 tasining aksariyati global isish" juda jiddiy "muammo" deb aytdi.[43]
Olimlarning fikri va keng jamoatchilik fikri o'rtasida farqlar mavjud.[44][45] AQShda 2009 yil o'tkazilgan so'rovnoma Pyu tadqiqot markazi topilgan "hozirgacha olimlarning 84% i odamlarning qazilma yoqilg'ilarni yoqish kabi harakatlari tufayli er isiyapti, deyishadi, faqatgina 49% jamoatchilik fikriga qo'shiladi".[35] 2010 yilda Buyuk Britaniyada BBC uchun o'tkazilgan so'rovnomada "Iqlim skeptikligi kuchaymoqda" ko'rsatildi.[46] Robert Uotson buni "juda hafsalasi pir bo'lgan" deb topdi va "Biz jamoatchilikka iqlim o'zgarishi jiddiy ekanligini tushunishlari kerak, shuning uchun ular o'z odatlarini o'zgartirib, kam uglerodli iqtisodiyotga o'tishimizga yordam berishadi" dedi.[46]2012 yilda o'tkazilgan Kanadada o'tkazilgan so'rov natijalariga ko'ra, 32 foiz kanadaliklar iqlim o'zgarishi inson faoliyati tufayli yuz berayotganiga ishonishgan, 54 foizi buni inson faoliyati va qisman tabiiy iqlim o'zgarishi bilan bog'liq deb hisoblashgan. 9% iqlim o'zgarishi tabiiy iqlim o'zgarishi tufayli yuz beradi, deb ataganlar va atigi 2% iqlim o'zgarishiga umuman ishonmayman, degan fikrda.[47]
Shu bilan bog'liq tortishuvlar
Global isish bo'yicha konsensus nuqtai nazarini tanqid qiluvchilarning aksariyati, masalan, ekologik xatarlar bilan bog'liq bo'lgan boshqa masalalar bo'yicha ilmiy konsensus bilan to'liq yoki qisman rozi emas edilar. ozon qatlami, DDT va passiv chekish.[48][49] Kris Muni, muallifi Ilm-fan bo'yicha respublika urushi, shubhali olimlar, sharhlovchilar va fikrlash markazlarining bir-biri bilan bir-biriga o'xshash bo'lmagan tortishuvlarda paydo bo'lishi ilmiy tahlilni siyosiy mafkura bilan almashtirishga uyushtirilgan urinish natijasida kelib chiqadi, deb ta'kidladi. Munining ta'kidlashicha, siyosiy, ammo ilmiy jihatdan ziddiyatli bo'lmagan masalalarda shubhalarni ilgari surish Jorj V.Bush ma'muriyati davrida tobora keng tarqalib bormoqda va bu uning siyosiy maqsadlariga erishish uchun ilmiy izlanishlarni muntazam ravishda buzib ko'rsatgan va / yoki bostirgan. Bu 2004 yilda atrof-muhit bo'yicha huquqshunosning kitobiga ham tegishli Robert F. Kennedi, kichik sarlavhali Tabiatga qarshi jinoyatlar: Jorj Bush va korporativ Pals qanday qilib mamlakatni talon-taroj qilmoqda va bizning demokratiyamizni o'g'irlamoqda? (ISBN 978-0060746872). Ushbu mavzu bo'yicha yana bir kitob Aqlga hujum sobiq tomonidan Amerika Qo'shma Shtatlarining vitse-prezidenti Al Gor. Issiqlik yonmoqda tomonidan Ross Gelbspan Kongressning iqlim o'zgarishini rad etishda ozon qatlami va asbestni yo'q qilishning ilmiy asoslariga qarshi hujumlarga qanday aloqasi borligi va boshqa mavzular haqida.[50]
Iqlim isishi bo'yicha ilmiy konsensusning ayrim tanqidchilari ushbu masalalarni bir-biri bilan bog'lash kerak emasligi va ularga murojaat qilish asossiz degan fikrni ilgari surdilar. ad hominem hujum.[51] Siyosatshunos Rojer Pielke, kichik, Muniga javoban, ilm-fan muqarrar ravishda siyosat bilan chambarchas bog'liqligini ta'kidladi.[52]
2015 yilda, ko'ra The New York Times va boshqalar, neft kompaniyalari buni bilar edi neft va gazni yoqish sabab bo'lishi mumkin Global isish 1970-yillardan beri, ammo baribir, inkor qiluvchilarni yillar davomida moliyalashtirishgan.[53][54]
Ilmiy konsensus
So'nggi o'n yilliklarda iqlim isishi va inson faoliyati global iqlim o'zgarishiga olib keladi degan xulosalar har bir tomonidan tasdiqlangan milliy ilmiy akademiya iqlim o'zgarishi bo'yicha bayonot e'lon qildi, shu jumladan barcha ilmiy akademiyalar yirik sanoatlashgan mamlakatlar.[63]
Yaqinda sodir bo'lgan iqlim o'zgarishi xususiyati global isishning antropogen bilan qanday bog'liqligini muhokama qiladi issiqxona gazlari (Issiqxonalar).
Ilmiy konsensus
Ilmiy konsensus odatda anjumanlarda muloqot qilish, nashr etish ilmiy adabiyotlar, replikatsiya (boshqalar tomonidan takrorlanadigan natijalar) va taqriz. Global isish holatida ko'plab hukumat hisobotlari, ko'plab mamlakatlarning ommaviy axborot vositalari va atrof-muhitni muhofaza qilish tashkilotlari deyarli bir ovozdan mavjudligini ta'kidladilar ilmiy kelishuv inson tomonidan kelib chiqadigan global isish haqiqat va jiddiy tashvish tug'diradi.[65][66][67] Ga ko'ra Amerika Qo'shma Shtatlari Milliy tadqiqot kengashi,
[T] bu erda ob-havoning o'zgarib borayotganligi va bu o'zgarishlarning aksariyati inson faoliyati tufayli sodir bo'lganligi haqidagi ko'plab tadqiqot yo'nalishlariga asoslangan kuchli, ishonchli dalillar to'plami. Ko'p narsalarni o'rganishimiz kerak bo'lsa-da, asosiy hodisa, ilmiy savollar va gipotezalar yaxshilab o'rganib chiqildi va jiddiy ilmiy munozaralar va muqobil tushuntirishlarni sinchkovlik bilan baholash oldida qat'iy turdi. * * * Ba'zi ilmiy xulosalar yoki nazariyalar shu qadar chuqur o'rganib chiqilgan va sinovdan o'tgan va shu qadar ko'p mustaqil kuzatuvlar va natijalar tomonidan qo'llab-quvvatlanganki, keyinchalik ularning noto'g'ri deb topish ehtimoli juda oz. Bunday xulosalar va nazariyalar keyinchalik aniq faktlar sifatida qaraladi. Bu Yer tizimining isishi va bu isishning katta qismi inson faoliyati tufayli bo'lishi mumkin degan xulosalar uchundir.[68]
Asosiy ilmiy baholashning muxoliflari orasida ba'zilarning fikriga ko'ra, odamlar iqlimga ta'sir qilishi to'g'risida kelishuv mavjud bo'lsa-da, ularning miqdoriy kattaligi to'g'risida umumiy kelishuv mavjud emas antropogen global isish (AGW) tabiiy zo'rliklarga nisbatan va uning foyda-zarar nisbati.[69] Boshqa muxolifatchilar qandaydir noma'lum "konsensus argumenti" ishlatilayotganini ta'kidlaydilar va keyin buni ilm-fan konsensusga emas, balki dalillarga asoslangan deb ta'kidlab, buni rad etadilar.[70] Ba'zilar, ular aytganlari nuqtai nazaridan faqat bitta nuqtai nazarga e'tiborni qaratish xavfini ta'kidlaydilar tinch bo'lmagan fan, yoki ilm-fan so'rovlar yoki konsensusga emas, balki faktlarga asoslanganligini ta'kidlaydilar.[71][72]
Dennis T. Avery, da oziq-ovqat siyosati bo'yicha tahlilchi Hudson instituti, "Tadqiqotga qarshi bo'lgan 500 olim olim tomonidan inson tomonidan ishlab chiqarilgan global isish qo'rquvi" nomli maqola yozdi.[73] 2007 yilda nashr etilgan, tomonidan Heartland instituti. Ro'yxat darhol nomlangan ko'plab tadqiqotlarning xulosalarini noto'g'ri anglashi va buzib ko'rsatishi uchun shubha ostiga olindi va eskirgan, nomukammal tadqiqotlarni keltirib o'tdi. Ro'yxatga kiritilgan ko'plab olimlar ularning ismlarini o'chirishni talab qilishdi.[74][75] Kamida 45 olim "hammualliflar" qatoriga kiritilgani haqida hech qanday tasavvurga ega bo'lmagan va hujjat xulosalariga rozi bo'lmagan.[76] Heartland instituti ushbu talablarni rad etdi va "olimlar qonuniy yoki axloqiy jihatdan o'zlarining nomlarini o'zlari rozi bo'lmagan tadqiqotchilar tomonidan tuzilgan bibliografiyadan olib tashlashni talab qilishga haqli emasligini" ta'kidladilar.[76]
2010 yildagi qog'oz Milliy fanlar akademiyasi materiallari "1372 iqlim tadqiqotchilari va ularning nashr etilishi va keltirilgan ma'lumotlarini tahlil qilish (i) iqlim tadqiqotchilarining ushbu sohada faol ravishda nashr etgan 97-98% iqlim o'zgarishi bo'yicha hukumatlararo panel tomonidan bayon etilgan ACC [iqlimning antropogen o'zgarishi] qoidalarini qo'llab-quvvatlashini, va (ii) nisbiy iqlim tajribasi va ACCga ishonmagan tadqiqotchilarning ilmiy obro'si ishonchli tadqiqotchilarnikidan ancha past ".[57][77] Judit Karri "bu mutlaqo ishonib bo'lmaydigan tahlil", deb aytdi Naomi Oreskes Gazetada "ishlaydigan (iqlim) tadqiqotchilarining aksariyati [iqlim o'zgarishi to'g'risida) bir fikrda ekanligi ko'rsatilgan ... Bunga rozi bo'lmaganlar, afsuski - va buni elitistlarsiz aytish qiyin - asosan ikkalasi ham aslida iqlim tadqiqotchilari yoki unchalik samarali tadqiqotchilar emas. "[77][78] Tadqiqot mualliflaridan biri Jim Prall "uchinchi toifaga iliqroq bo'lish foydali bo'lardi" deb tan oldi.[77]
2013 yilda o'tkazilgan tadqiqot, ekspertlar jurnalida nashr etilgan Atrof-muhitni o'rganish bo'yicha xatlar 1991 yildan 2011 yilgacha ekspertlar tomonidan ko'rib chiqilgan ilmiy adabiyotlarda chop etilgan 11.944 tezislarni tahlil qildi. ISI Internet of Science iqtiboslar indeksi "global iqlim o'zgarishi" yoki "global isish" matn satrlari uchun vosita. Mualliflar avtoreferatlarning 3974 tasi antropogen global isish to'g'risida o'z pozitsiyasini bildirganligini va ularning 97% odamlar global isishga olib kelayotgan degan kelishuvni ma'qullaganligini aniqladilar. Mualliflarning ta'kidlashicha, 11.944 tezislardan 3896 tasi konsensusni ma'qullagan, 7930 bunga munosabat bildirmagan, 78 tasi konsensusni rad etgan va 40 tasi bu borada noaniqlik bildirgan.[61]
2014 yilda 52 ta etakchi skeptiklarning ilmiy konsensusni qo'llab-quvvatlovchi va ommaviy axborot vositalaridan inkor etuvchilarni "skeptiklar" deb atashni to'xtatishni so'rab, Skeptik So'rovlar Qo'mitasi tomonidan yozilgan xati e'lon qilindi. Maktubda iqlim va inkor haqidagi skeptik fikrga oydinlik kiritildi: "Ilmiy skeptiklar sifatida biz haqiqatni inkor qiladigan, ammo ilmiy izlanishlar bilan shug'ullanmaydigan yoki ularning chuqur qarashlari noto'g'ri ekanligiga dalillarni ko'rib chiqmaydiganlar tomonidan iqlim faniga putur etkazish bo'yicha siyosiy harakatlarni yaxshi bilamiz. Ushbu shaxslarning xatti-harakatlarini ta'riflash uchun eng to'g'ri so'z "rad etish" dir. O'zlarini iqlim o'zgarishiga skeptik deb ataganlarning hammasi ham inkor etuvchi emaslar, ammo deyarli barcha inkorchilar o'zlarini yolg'onchi qilib skeptik deb atashgan. Ushbu noto'g'ri so'zni ishlatib, jurnalistlar o'zlariga munosib ishonch berishdi. ilm-fan va ilmiy izlanishlarni rad etganlar. "[79]
IPCC vakolati
Iqlim o'zgarishining "standart" ko'rinishi IPCC hisobotlari bilan aniqlandi, uni boshqa ko'plab hujjatlar qo'llab-quvvatlaydi ilmiy akademiyalar va ilmiy tashkilotlar. 2001 yilda dunyodagi o'n oltita milliy akademiyalar iqlim o'zgarishi bo'yicha qo'shma bayonot berishdi va IPCCni qo'llab-quvvatladilar.[63]
Raqiblar odatda IPCC jarayonlariga hujum qildilar, odamlar[80] yoki sintez va ijro etuvchi xulosalar; to'liq hisobotlar kamroq e'tiborni jalb qiladi. Ba'zi tortishuvlar va tanqidlar IPCC tomonidan hisobotlarni topshirish yoki uning panellarida xizmat qilish uchun taklif qilingan mutaxassislardan kelib chiqqan.
Kristofer Landsi, bo'ron tadqiqotchisi, "Mening tajribam tegishli bo'lgan IPCC qismi" haqida: "Men shaxsan vijdonan vijdonan o'z hissamni qo'sha olmayman, chunki men ikkala oldindan rejalashtirilgan kun tartibidan kelib chiqqan holda va ilmiy jihatdan asossiz deb o'ylayman. , "[81] tomonidan matbuot anjumanida bildirilgan sharhlar tufayli Kevin Trenbert shundan Landsea rozi bo'lmadi. Trenberth "Landsea-ning sharhlari to'g'ri emas" dedi;[82] IPCC "individual olimlar, agar ular IPCC nomidan hech narsa demasalar, o'z huquqlarida xohlaganlarini qilishlari mumkin" deb javob berishdi va Landsea-ni AR4-ni ko'rib chiqish bosqichiga qo'shishni taklif qilishdi.[83] Rojer Pielke, kichik "Landsea ham, Trenberth ham o'zini oqlashi mumkin va his qilishi kerak ... IPCC siyosat ishlab chiqaruvchilar uchun so'nggi xulosasida tropik tsiklonlar va iqlim o'zgarishi haqidagi ilmiy tushunchalar holatini aniq bayon qildi."[82]
2005 yilda Lordlar palatasi Iqtisodiyot qo'mitasi "Bizda IPCC jarayonining ob'ektivligi haqida ba'zi xavotirlar bor, ularning ba'zi emissiya stsenariylari va xulosaviy hujjatlari, ehtimol siyosiy mulohazalar ta'sirida" deb yozgan. Bu emissiyaning yuqori stsenariylariga shubha bilan qaradi va IPCC qo'mita "global isishning ba'zi ijobiy tomonlari" deb atagan "o'yinni o'ynatdi".[84] Lordlar Palatasi Iqtisodiyot qo'mitasining asosiy bayonotlari Buyuk Britaniya hukumati tomonidan berilgan javobda rad etildi[85] va tomonidan Stern Review.[iqtibos kerak ]
Insonlarning iqlim o'zgarishiga aniq ta'sir doirasi bo'yicha ilmiy konsensusni o'rnatish qiyinligi haqida gapirib, Jon Kristi, hissa qo'shgan muallif shunday yozgan:
Hissa qo'shayotgan mualliflardan asosan boshida bir oz matn qo'shishi va dastlabki ikkita loyihani ko'rib chiqishi talab qilinadi. Qarorlarni tahrirlash ustidan nazoratimiz yo'q. Hatto 2000 dan ortiq sharhlovchilarga kamroq ta'sir ko'rsatiladi. Shunday qilib, 800 ta muallif yoki 2000 ta sharhlovchining biron bir narsada kelishuvga erishganligini aytish, bu haqiqat bo'lmagan vaziyatni tavsiflaydi.[86]
2008 yil 10-dekabr kuni AQSh Senati Atrof-muhit va jamoat ishlari qo'mitasi Senatning eng qizg'in global isish skeptikasi rahbarligidagi ozchilik a'zolari Jim Inxof. Hisobotni tayyorlash vaqti Polshaning Poznan shahrida bo'lib o'tgan BMTning global isish bo'yicha konferentsiyasiga to'g'ri keldi. Unda IPCCning ilmiy noroziligi sarhisob qilingan.[87] Hisobotda sanab o'tilgan shaxslarning soni, ular haqiqatan ham olim bo'ladimi yoki ularga tegishli pozitsiyalarni qo'llab-quvvatlayaptimi, degan ko'plab bayonotlar tortishuvlarga sabab bo'ldi.[88][89][90]
Ba'zi bir tanqidchilar IPCC global isishni haddan tashqari oshirib yuborishini ta'kidlashsa, boshqalari aksincha tanqid qilishdi. Devid Biello Ilmiy Amerika, hukumat vakillari o'rtasida konsensusni ta'minlash zarurligi sababli IPCC hisobotlarida global isish ehtimoli darajasi va oqibatlari to'g'risida konservativ taxminlar berilgan.[91] Ilm-fan muharriri Bruks Xanson 2010 yilgi tahririyatda: "IPCC hisobotlari iqlim o'zgarishi tezligini kam baholagan holda, jamiyatlarning issiqxona gazlari chiqindilarini cheklash qobiliyatini oshirib yuborgan".[92] Iqlimshunos Jeyms E. Xansen IPCC ning konservativligi xavfni jiddiy ravishda kamaytiradi, deb ta'kidlaydi dengiz sathidan ko'tarilish metrlar tartibida - Florida shtatining janubiy uchdan bir qismi kabi ko'plab pasttekisliklarni suv bosishi uchun etarli.[93] Rojer A. Pielke Sr shuningdek, "Odamlar global iqlimni sezilarli darajada o'zgartirmoqda, ammo karbonat angidridning radiatsion ta'siridan tashqari turli xil yo'llar bilan. IPCC baholari ushbu iqlim majburlashlarining ahamiyatini tan olishda juda konservativ bo'lib kelgan. ular mintaqaviy va global iqlimni o'zgartiradilar. "[94]
Xenderson-sotuvchilar 2007 yildagi seminarda IPCC mualliflarining sharhlarini to'plab, bir qator tashvishlarni bayon qildi. Uning so'zlariga ko'ra, "IPCC to'rtinchi baholash hisoboti nashr etilishi bilan iqlim o'zgarishi bo'yicha tadqiqotlar yangi va boshqa rejimga o'tdi. Endi inson faoliyati iqlimni o'zgartiradimi yoki yo'qmi degan savol tug'ilmaydi; buning o'rniga tadqiqotlar quyidagi dolzarb savollarga javob berishi kerak:" qanchalik tez? ';' qanday ta'sirga ega? 'va' qanday javoblar kerak? '"[95]
Issiqxona gazlari
Yaqinda sodir bo'lgan iqlim o'zgarishi xususiyati so'nggi dalillarni muhokama qiladi Global isish. Shunga qaramay, global isishga qarshi dalillardan birining aytishicha, darajaning ko'tarilishi karbonat angidrid (CO
2) va boshqalar issiqxona gazlari (IG) global isish bilan o'zaro bog'liq emas.[96][97]
- Vostok tadqiqotlari muz yadrosi "deglyatsiyalarning boshida, CO
2 Antarktika haroratiga nisbatan o'sish bosqichda yoki ~ 1000 yildan kam bo'lgan, ammo muzliklar boshlanganda haroratdan aniq orqada qolgan ».[98] Yaqinda isinish natijasida karbonat angidrid miqdori 5 oyga kechikish bilan kuzatiladi.[99] Vaqtning kechikishi hozirgi ko'tarilish deb ta'kidlash uchun ishlatilgan CO
2 a natija sabab emas. Umuman olganda, sanoat davridan oldin o'zgarishlar asosan astronomik majburlash bilan belgilanadi,[100] hozirgi isishning asosiy qismi antropogen relizlar bilan belgilanadi CO
2, o'tmishda kuzatilmagan juda yaqin vaqt munosabati (shu tariqa argumentni inson ahamiyatiga qaytarish) CO
2 emissiya). Atmosferadagi uglerod izotoplarini tahlil qilish CO
2 yaqinda kuzatilganligini ko'rsatadi CO
2 O'sish okeanlardan, vulqonlardan yoki biosferadan kelib chiqishi mumkin emas va shuning uchun ham xuddi shu o'tgan kechikishlar hosil bo'lgan jarayonlar hozirda faol bo'lganida talab qilinadigan harorat ko'tarilishiga javob bo'lmaydi.[101] - Uglerod dioksidi Yer atmosferasining har millioniga 390 qismni (ppm) to'g'ri keladi va 1830-yillarda 284 ppm dan 2009 yilda 387 ppm ga oshdi.[102][103] Karbonat angidrid tabiiy issiqxona ta'sirining 9 dan 26% gacha hissasini qo'shadi.[104]
- In Ordovik davri ning Paleozoy davri (taxminan 450 million yil oldin), Yer atmosferaga ega edi CO
2 kontsentratsiyasi 4400 ppm (yoki atmosferaning 0,44%) deb baholangan, shu bilan birga ba'zi muzliklarga ishora qilmoqda. Modellashtirish ishlari shuni ko'rsatdiki, 300-500 metrdan yuqori balandlikdagi mahalliy hududlarda yuqori atmosferada ham yil bo'yi qor qoplami bo'lishi mumkin CO
2 konsentratsiyalar.[105] 2006 yildagi tadqiqot shuni ko'rsatadiki, ko'tarilgan CO
2 darajalar va muzliklar sinxron emas, aksincha ob-havo ning ko'tarilishi va eroziyasi bilan bog'liq Appalachi tog'lari atmosferadagi issiqxona gazlari kontsentratsiyasini ancha pasaytirdi va kuzatilgan muzliklarga yo'l qo'ydi.[106]
Yuqorida ta'kidlab o'tilganidek, iqlim modellari O'tgan asrdagi harorat ko'rsatkichlarini simulyatsiya qilishga qodir, chunki ular issiqxona gazini majburlashni hisobga olgan holda, IPCC xulosalariga mos keladi: "Issiqxona gazini majburlash, asosan inson faoliyati natijasida, asosan so'nggi 50 yil ichida global isish kuzatilgan "[107]
Kelajakdagi atmosferadagi issiqxona gazlari uchun "standart" stsenariylar to'plami IPCC hisoblanadi SRES stsenariylar. Stsenariylarning maqsadi emissiya kelajagi qanday aniq yo'nalishda bo'lishini bashorat qilish emas, balki u mumkin bo'lgan aholi, iqtisodiy va ijtimoiy tendentsiyalar ostida qanday bo'lishi mumkinligini anglatadi.[108] Iqlim modellari iqlim o'zgarishi uchun turli xil natijalarni ko'rsatish uchun kirish sifatida har qanday stsenariylardan foydalangan holda ishlatilishi mumkin. Rasmiy ravishda hech kim ssenariyga ustunlik bermaydi, ammo amalda "A1b" stsenariysi taxminan atmosferada yiliga 1% o'sishga to'g'ri keladi CO
2 ko'pincha modellashtirish ishlari uchun ishlatiladi.[iqtibos kerak ]
Fotoalbom yoqilg'ini iste'mol qilishning turli xil stsenariylari haqida munozaralar mavjud. Global isish shubhali Fred Singer "ba'zi bir yaxshi mutaxassislar atmosferaga ishonishadi" deb ta'kidladilar CO
2 kontsentratsiya ikki baravar ko'paymaydi, chunki iqtisodiyot uglerodga kamroq bog'liq bo'lib qoladi.[109]
(NASA kompyuter simulyatsiyasi ).
Biroq, Stern hisoboti,[114]ko'plab boshqa ma'ruzalar singari, o'tgan o'rtasidagi o'zaro bog'liqlikni qayd etadi CO
2 emissiya va iqtisodiy o'sish va keyinchalik "odatdagidek biznes" stsenariysi yordamida ekstrapolyatsiya qilinadi va YaIM o'sishini bashorat qiladi CO
2 darajalari, degan xulosaga kelish:
Faqatgina qazib olinadigan yoqilg'i etishmovchiligining ko'payishi o'z vaqtida chiqindilarni ko'payishini to'xtata olmaydi. Qazib olish uchun foydali bo'lgan uglevodorodlarning zaxiralari dunyoni darajaga ko'tarish uchun etarli emas CO
2 iqlim o'zgarishi uchun juda xavfli oqibatlarga olib keladigan 750 ppm dan yuqori.
2006 yilgi qog'ozga ko'ra Lourens Livermor milliy laboratoriyasi, "agar odamlar 2300 yilgacha butun sayyoradagi mavjud qazilma yoqilg'ilaridan foydalansalar, Yer 8 daraja Selsiy (14,4 daraja Farangeyt) ga qiziydi".[115]
2015 yil 12-noyabrda, NASA olimlari inson tomonidan ishlab chiqarilganligini xabar qildi karbonat angidrid (CO2) yuz minglab yillarda kuzatilmagan darajadan yuqoriligicha davom etmoqda: hozirda karbonat angidrid gazining yarimga yaqin qismi ajralib chiqadi qazib olinadigan yoqilg'ini yoqish ichida qoladi atmosfera va o'simlik va okeanlar tomonidan so'rilmaydi.[110][111][112][113]
Quyoshning o'zgarishi
Global isishni asosiy ilmiy baholashga qarshi bo'lgan olimlar global isish sabablari to'g'risida turli fikrlarni bildirmoqdalar. Ba'zilarning aytishicha, global isishning asosiy sababi odamlar ekanligi hali aniqlanmagan; boshqalar global isishni tabiiy o'zgarishga bog'lashadi; okean oqimlari; ortdi quyosh faolligi yoki kosmik nurlar. Konsensus pozitsiyasi shundaki, quyosh radiatsiyasi 0,12 Vt / m ga ko'paygan bo'lishi mumkin2 1,6 Vt / m ga nisbatan 1750 yildan beri2 aniq antropogen majburlash uchun.[116] TAR, "Ikki asosiy tabiiy omilni (quyosh o'zgarishi va vulkanik aerozollar) radiatsiyaviy majburlashdagi birgalikdagi o'zgarish so'nggi ikki yil davomida va ehtimol so'nggi to'rt o'n yilliklar davomida salbiy hisoblanadi" deb aytdi.[117] AR4 yaqinda quyoshni majburlashning roli to'g'risida to'g'ridan-to'g'ri tasdiqlamaydi, ammo oldingi bayonot AR4 ning 4-rasmiga mos keladi.[iqtibos kerak ]
Bir nechta tadqiqotlar shuni ko'rsatadiki, Quyosh faolligining hozirgi darajasi tarixiy jihatdan quyosh nuqta faolligi va boshqa omillar bilan belgilanadi. Quyoshning faolligi iqlimga Quyoshning chiqishi o'zgarishi yoki spekulyativ tarzda, bilvosita ta'sirida ta'sir qilishi mumkin. bulut shakllanishi. Solanki va uning hamkasblari so'nggi 60-70 yillardagi quyosh faolligi 8000 yildagi eng yuqori darajada bo'lishi mumkin deb taxmin qilmoqdalar, ammo ular "quyosh o'zgaruvchanligi so'nggi o'ttiz yil ichida kuchli isishning asosiy sababi bo'lishi mumkin emas" deb aytdilar. , va "[1970] yildan beri eng ko'p 30% kuchli isish quyosh manbalaridan kelib chiqishi mumkin" degan xulosaga kelishdi.[118] Muscheler va boshq. So'nggi bir necha ming yil ichida boshqa shunga o'xshash yuqori darajadagi faoliyat bir necha bor sodir bo'lganligini taxmin qilib, tadqiqot bilan rozi emas.[119]Ularning xulosasiga ko'ra, "Quyoshdagi faollikni qayta qurish bizga yaqinda sodir bo'layotgan global isishning faqat ozgina qismini Quyosh o'zgaruvchisi bilan izohlash mumkinligini aytadi".[120]
Qarama-qarshiliklarning yana bir nuqtasi haroratning o'zaro bog'liqligi quyosh o'zgarishi.[121]
Mayk Lokvud va Klaus Fruhlich taxminan 1850 yildan buyon global o'rtacha sirt harorati yozuvida kuzatilgan isish Quyoshning o'zgarishi natijasidir, degan fikrni rad etdi.[122] Lokvud va Fruhlich, "1985 yildan keyin kuzatilgan global o'rtacha haroratning kuzatilgan tez ko'tarilishini quyoshning o'zgaruvchanligi deb atash mumkin emas, mexanizmlarning qaysi biri ishlatilsa va quyosh o'zgarishi qanchalik kuchaytirilmasin".[122]
Aerosollarni majburlash
1940-yillardan 1960-yillarga qadar isishdagi tanaffus odatda bog'liqdir sulfat aerozollarining sovutish ta'siri.[123][124] Yaqinda ushbu majburlash (nisbatan) kamaydi, bu esa iliqlikni kuchaytirishi mumkin, ammo ta'sir mintaqaviy jihatdan farq qiladi. Qarang global xiralashish. Buning yana bir misoli - Rukstulning qog'ozida, u Evropada aerozol konsentratsiyasining 60 foizga pasayishini quyoshning porlashiga olib keladi:[125]
[...] to'g'ridan-to'g'ri aerozol effekti iqlim majburlashiga bilvosita aerozol va boshqa bulut ta'siriga qaraganda taxminan besh baravar katta ta'sir ko'rsatdi. Umumiy aerozol va bulut ta'sirida yuzaga keladigan iqlim majburiyati ~ 1 Vt m−2 o'n yil−1 va, ehtimol, yaqinda Evropada tez isib ketishiga katta hissa qo'shgan.
Harorat yozuvlarini tahlil qilish
Yuzaki haroratni instrumental qayd etish
Bu aniqligi to'g'risida jamoatchilik qarama-qarshiliklarini ko'tarishga urinishlar bo'lgan instrumental harorat yozuvi asosida shahar issiqlik oroli effekt, er usti stantsiyalari tarmog'ining sifati va harorat yozuviga asossiz o'zgarishlar kiritilganligi haqidagi tasdiqlar.[126][127][128]
Haroratning global yozuvlarini hisoblash uchun ishlatiladigan ob-havo stantsiyalari sayyora bo'ylab bir tekis taqsimlanmagan va vaqt o'tishi bilan ularning tarqalishi o'zgargan. 1850-yillarda ob-havo stantsiyalari soni oz bo'lgan va 1951-1990 yillargacha ularning soni hozirgi 3000+ ga yetmagan.[129]
2001 yildagi IPCC uchinchi baholash hisoboti (TAR) shahar issiqlik orolining muhim ekanligini tan oldi mahalliy ta'sir, ammo shahar issiqlik orolining ta'sirini ko'rsatadigan tarixiy ma'lumotlarning keltirilgan tahlillari global harorat tendentsiyasi 1990 yilgacha 0,05 ° C (0,09 ° F) darajadan oshmaydi.[130]Peterson (2003) shahar va qishloq joylarida kuzatilgan isish o'rtasida farq yo'qligini aniqladi.[131]
Parker (2006) tinch va shamolli tunlar o'rtasida isinishda farq yo'qligini aniqladi. Since the urban heat island effect is strongest for calm nights and is weak or absent on windy nights, this was taken as evidence that global temperature trends are not significantly contaminated by urban effects.[132] Pielke and Matsui published a paper disagreeing with Parker's conclusions.[133]
2005 yilda, Rojer A. Pielke va Stiven Makintayr criticized the US instrumental temperature record and adjustments to it, and Pielke and others criticized the poor quality siting of a number of weather stations in the United States.[134][135] 2007 yilda, Entoni Uotts began a volunteer effort to photographically document the siting quality of these stations.[136] The Geofizik tadqiqotlar jurnali – Atmospheres subsequently published a study by Menne et al. which examined the record of stations picked out by Watts' Surfacestations.org and found that, if anything, the poorly sited stations showed a slight cool bias rather than the warm bias which Watts had anticipated.[137][138]
The Berkli Yer yuzasi harorati group carried out an independent assessment of land temperature records, which examined issues raised by skeptics, such as the urban heat island effect, poor station quality, and the risk of data selection bias. The preliminary results, made public in October 2011, found that these factors had not biased the results obtained by NOAA, the Xadli markazi bilan birga Iqlim tadqiqotlari bo'limi (HadCRUT ) and NASA's GISS in earlier studies. The group also confirmed that over the past 50 years the land surface warmed by 0.911 °C, and their results closely matched those obtained from these earlier studies. The four papers they had produced had been submitted for peer review.[139][140][141][142]
Tropospheric temperature
General circulation models and basic physical considerations predict that in the tropics the temperature of the troposfera should increase more rapidly than the temperature of the surface. A 2006 report to the AQShning iqlim o'zgarishi bo'yicha ilmiy dasturi noted that models and observations agreed on this amplification for monthly and interannual time scales but not for decadal time scales in most observed data sets. Improved measurement and analysis techniques have reconciled this discrepancy: corrected buoy and sun'iy yo'ldosh surface temperatures are slightly cooler and corrected satellite and radiosond measurements of the tropical troposphere are slightly warmer.[143] Sun'iy yo'ldoshning haroratini o'lchash show that tropospheric temperatures are increasing with "rates similar to those of the surface temperature", leading the IPCC to conclude that this discrepancy is reconciled.[144]
Antarctica cooling
There has been a public dispute regarding the apparent contradiction in the observed behavior of Antarktida, as opposed to the global rise in temperatures measured elsewhere in the world. This became part of the public debate in the global warming controversy, particularly between advocacy groups of both sides in the public arena, as well as the popular media.[145][146][147][148][149][150][151][152]
In contrast to the popular press, there is no evidence of a corresponding controversy in the scientific community. Observations unambiguously show the Antarktika yarim oroli to be warming. The trends elsewhere show both warming and cooling but are smaller and dependent on season and the timespan over which the trend is computed.[153] A study released in 2009, combined historical weather station data with satellite measurements to deduce past temperatures over large regions of the continent, and these temperatures indicate an overall warming trend. One of the paper's authors stated "We now see warming is taking place on all seven of the earth's continents in accord with what models predict as a response to greenhouse gases."[154] According to 2011 paper by Ding, et al., "The Pacific sector of Antarctica, including both the Antarctic Peninsula and continental West Antarctica, has experienced substantial warming in the past 30 years."[155][156]
This controversy began with the misinterpretation of the results of a 2002 paper by Doran et al.,[157][158] which found "Although previous reports suggest slight recent continental warming, our spatial analysis of Antarctic meteorological data demonstrates a net cooling on the Antarctic continent between 1966 and 2000, particularly during summer and autumn."[157] Later the controversy was popularized by Maykl Krixton 's 2004 fiction novel Qo'rquv holati,[159] who advocated skepticism in global warming.[160][161] This novel has a dokudrama plot based upon the idea that there is a deliberately alarmist conspiracy behind global warming activism. One of the characters argues "data show that one relatively small area called the Antarctic Peninsula is melting and buzoqlash huge icebergs... but the continent as a whole is getting colder, and the ice is getting thicker." As a basis for this plot twist, Crichton cited the peer reviewed scientific article by Doran, et al.[157] Piter Doran, the lead author of the paper cited by Crichton, stated "... our results have been misused as 'evidence' against global warming by Crichton in his novel 'State of Fear'... 'Our study did find that 58 percent of Antarctica cooled from 1966 to 2000. But during that period, the rest of the continent was warming. And climate models created since our paper was published have suggested a link between the lack of significant warming in Antarctica and the ozone hole over that continent."[162]
Iqlimga sezgirlik
As defined by the IPCC, iqlim sezgirligi is the "equilibrium temperature rise that would occur for a doubling of CO
2 concentration above pre-industrial levels".[163] In its 2007 Fourth Assessment Report, IPCC said that climate sensitivity is "likely to be in the range 2 to 4.5 °C with a best estimate of about 3 °C".[164] In the fifth annual report, the lower end was lowered back to 1.5C, with the upper limit remaining at 4.5C. This is the range that was originally published in the 1990 report, which was in turn based on the 1979 'Charney report'.[iqtibos kerak ]
Using a combination of surface temperature history and ocean heat content, Stephen E. Schwartz has proposed an estimate of iqlim sezgirligi of 1.9 ± 1.0 K for doubled CO
2.,[165] revised upwards from 1.1 ± 0.5 K.[166] Grant Foster, Jeyms Annan, Gavin Shmidt va Maykl E. Mann[167][168] argue that there are errors in both versions of Schwartz's analysis. Petr Chylek and co-authors have also proposed low climate sensitivity to doubled CO
2, estimated to be 1.6 K ± 0.4 K.[169]
In January 2013 widespread publicity was given to work led by Terje Berntsen of the Oslo universiteti, Julia Hargreaves of the Research Institute for Global Change in Yokohama, and Nic Lewis, an independent climate scientist, which reportedly found lower climate sensitivities than IPCC estimates and the suggestion that there is a 90% probability that doubling CO
2 emissions will increase temperatures by lower values than those estimated by the climate models used by the IPCC was featured in news outlets including Iqtisodchi.[170][171] This premature announcement came from a preliminary news release about a study which had not yet been peer reviewed.[172] The Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo (CICERO) issued a statement that they were involved with the relevant research project, and the news story was based on a report submitted to the research council which included both published and unpublished material. The highly publicised figures came from work still undergoing peer review, and CICERO would wait until they had been published in a journal before disseminating the results.[173]
Infrared iris hypothesis
2001 yilda, Richard Lindzen proposed a system of compensating meteorological processes involving clouds that tend to stabilize climate change; he tagged this the "Iris gipotezasi, or "Infrared Iris".[174] This work has been discussed in a number of papers[175]
Roy Spenser va boshq. suggested "a net reduction in radiative input into the ocean-atmosphere system" in tropical intraseasonal oscillations "may potentially support" the idea of an "Iris" effect, although they point out that their work is concerned with much shorter time scales.[176]
Other analyses have found that the iris effect is a ijobiy feedback rather than the negative feedback proposed by Lindzen.[177]
Temperature projections
Jeyms Xansen 's 1984 climate model projections versus observed temperatures are updated each year by Dr Mikako Sato of Columbia University.[179] The RealClimate website provides an annual update comparing both Hansen's 1988 model projections and the IPCC to'rtinchi baholash hisoboti (AR4) climate model projections with observed temperatures recorded by GISS va HadCRUT. The measured temperatures show continuing global warming.[178]
Conventional projections of future temperature rises depend on estimates of future anthropogenic GHG emissions (see SRES ), those positive and negative climate change feedbacks that have so far been incorporated into the models, and the iqlim sezgirligi. Models referenced by the Iqlim o'zgarishi bo'yicha hukumatlararo hay'at (IPCC) predict that global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) between 1990 and 2100. Others have proposed that temperature increases may be higher than IPCC estimates. One theory is that the climate may reach a "tipping point " where positive feedback effects lead to runaway global warming; such feedbacks include decreased reflection of solar radiation as sea ice melts, exposing darker seawater, and the potential release of large volumes of methane from thawing permafrost.[180] In 1959, Dr. Bert Bolin, in a speech to the National Academy of Sciences, predicted that by the year 2000, there would be a 25% increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere compared to the levels in 1859. The actual increase by 2000 was about 29%.[181]
Devid Orrell yoki Xenk Tennekes[182] say that climate change cannot be accurately predicted. Orrell says that the range of future increase in temperature suggested by the IPCC rather represents a social consensus in the climate community, but adds "we are having a dangerous effect on the climate".[183]
A 2007 study by Devid Duglass and coworkers, concluded that the 22 most commonly used global iqlim modellari used by the IPCC were unable to accurately predict accelerated warming in the troposfera although they did match actual surface warming, concluding "projections of future climate based on these models should be viewed with much caution". This result went against a similar study of 19 models which found that discrepancies between model predictions and actual temperature were likely due to measurement errors.[184]
A NASA report published in January 2013, Hansen and Sato noted "the 5-year mean global temperature has been flat for a decade, which we interpret as a combination of natural variability and a slowdown in the growth rate of the net climate forcing."[170][185] Ed Hawkins, of the O'qish universiteti,[186] stated that the "surface temperatures since 2005 are already at the low end of the range of projections derived from 20 climate models. If they remain flat, they will fall outside the models' range within a few years."[170][187] Using the long-term temperature trends for the earth scientists and statisticians conclude that it continues to warm through time.[188]
Forecasts confidence
The IPCC states it has increased confidence in forecasts coming from General Circulation Models or GCMs. Chapter 8 of AR4 reads:
There is considerable confidence that climate models provide credible quantitative estimates of future climate change, particularly at continental scales and above. This confidence comes from the foundation of the models in accepted physical principles and from their ability to reproduce observed features of current climate and past climate changes. Confidence in model estimates is higher for some climate variables (e.g., temperature) than for others (e.g., precipitation). Over several decades of development, models have consistently provided a robust and unambiguous picture of significant climate warming in response to increasing greenhouse gases.[189]
Certain scientists, skeptics and otherwise, believe this confidence in the models' ability to predict future climate is not earned.[190][191][192][193]
Arktik dengiz muzining pasayishi
Following the (then) record low of the arctic sea ice extend in 2007,[194] Mark Serreze, the director of US National Snow and Ice Data Center, stated "If you asked me a couple of years ago when the Arctic could lose all of its ice then I would have said 2100, or 2070 maybe. But now I think that 2030 is a reasonable estimate."[195]In 2012, during another record low, Piter Vadxams ning Kembrij universiteti predicted a possible final collapse of Arctic sea ice in summer months around 2016.[196]
Antarctic and Arctic sea ice extent are available on a daily basis from the National Snow & Ice Data Center.[197]
Ma'lumotlarni arxivlash va almashish
Scientific journals and funding agencies generally require authors of peer-reviewed research to provide information on archives of data and share sufficient data and methods necessary for a scientific expert on the topic to reproduce the work.[iqtibos kerak ]
In political controversy over the 1998 and 1999 historic temperature reconstructions widely publicised as the "xokkey tayoqchalari grafikalari ", Mann, Bredli va Xyuz as authors of the studies were sent letters on 23 June 2005 from Rep. Djo Barton, raisi House Committee on Energy and Commerce va Ed Uitfild, Raisi Nazorat va tergov bo'yicha kichik qo'mita, demanding full records on the research.[198][199][200]The letters told the scientist to provide not just data and methods, but also personal information about their finances and careers, information about grants provided to the institutions they had worked for, and the exact computer codes used to generate their results.[201]
Sherwood Boehlert, raisi Uy fanlari qo'mitasi, told his fellow Republican Joe Barton it was a "misguided and illegitimate investigation" seemingly intended to "intimidate scientists rather than to learn from them, and to substitute congressional political review for scientific review". The AQSh Milliy Fanlar Akademiyasi (NAS) president Ralph Cicerone wrote to Barton proposing that the NAS should appoint an independent panel to investigate. Barton dismissed this offer.[202][203]
On 15 July, Mann wrote giving his detailed response to Barton and Whitfield. He emphasised that the full data and necessary methods information was already publicly available in full accordance with Milliy Ilmiy Jamg'arma (NSF) requirements, so that other scientists had been able to reproduce their work. NSF policy was that computer codes are considered the intellectual property of researchers and are not subject to disclosure, but notwithstanding these property rights, the program used to generate the original MBH98 temperature reconstructions had been made available at the Mann et al. jamoat FTP sayt.[204]
Many scientists protested Barton's demands.[202][205] Alan I. Leshner wrote to him on behalf of the Amerika ilm-fanni rivojlantirish bo'yicha assotsiatsiyasi stating that the letters gave "the impression of a search for some basis on which to discredit these particular scientists and findings, rather than a search for understanding", He stated that Mann, Bradley and Hughes had given out their full data and descriptions of methods.[206][207]A Vashington Post editorial on 23 July which described the investigation as harassment quoted Bradley as saying it was "intrusive, far-reaching and intimidating", and Alan I. Leshner of the AAAS describing it as unprecedented in the 22 years he had been a government scientist; he thought it could "have a chilling effect on the willingness of people to work in areas that are politically relevant".[201] Congressman Boehlert said the investigation was as "at best foolhardy" with the tone of the letters showing the committee's inexperience in relation to science.[206]
Barton was given support by global warming sceptic Miron Ebell ning Raqobatbardosh korxonalar instituti, who said "We've always wanted to get the science on trial ... we would like to figure out a way to get this into a court of law," and "this could work".[206] Uning ichida Keraksiz fan ustun yoniq Fox News, Stiven Milloy said Barton's inquiry was reasonable.[208] 2005 yil sentyabr oyida Devid Legates alleged in a newspaper op-ed that the issue showed climate scientists not abiding by data access requirements and suggested that legislators might ultimately take action to enforce them.[209]
Boehlert commissioned the U.S. National Academy of Sciences to appoint an independent panel which investigated the issues and produced the Shimoliy hisobot which confirmed the validity of the science. At the same time, Barton arranged with statistician Edvard Wegman to back up the attacks on the "hockey stick" reconstructions. The Wegman Report repeated allegations about disclosure of data and methods, but Wegman failed to provide the code and data used by his team, despite repeated requests, and his report was subsequently found to contain plagiarised content. The "hockey stick" reconstructions and issues of data archiving and sharing subsequently became central features of the Iqlim tadqiqotlari bo'limi elektron pochta ziddiyati.
Political questions
In the U.S. global warming is often a partisan political issue.[210] Respublikachilar tend to oppose action against a threat that they regard as unproven, while Demokratlar tend to support actions that they believe will reduce global warming and its effects through the control of greenhouse gas emissions.[211] Klimatolog Kevin E. Trenbert aytilgan:
The SPM [Summary for policymakers] was approved line by line by governments[...] The argument here is that the scientists determine what can be said, but the governments determine how it can best be said. Negotiations occur over wording to ensure accuracy, balance, clarity of message, and relevance to understanding and policy. The IPCC process is dependent on the good will of the participants in producing a balanced assessment. However, in Shanghai, it appeared that there were attempts to blunt, and perhaps obfuscate, the messages in the report, most notably by Saudi Arabia. This led to very protracted debates over wording on even bland and what should be uncontroversial text... The most contentious paragraph in the IPCC (2001) SPM was the concluding one on attribution. After much debate, the following was carefully crafted: "In the light of new evidence, and taking into account the remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase in greenhouse-gas concentrations."[212]
As more evidence has become available over the existence of global warming debate has moved to further controversial issues,[213] shu jumladan:
- The social and environmental impacts
- The appropriate response to climate change
- Whether decisions require less uncertainty
The single largest issue is the importance of a few degrees rise in temperature:
Most people say, "A few degrees? So what? If I change my thermostat a few degrees, I'll live fine." ... [The] point is that one or two degrees is about the experience that we have had in the last 10,000 years, the era of human civilization. There haven't been—globally averaged, we're talking—fluctuations of more than a degree or so. So we're actually getting into uncharted territory from the point of view of the relatively benign climate of the last 10,000 years, if we warm up more than a degree or two. (Stiven X. Shnayder[214])
The other point that leads to major controversy—because it could have significant economic impacts—is whether action (usually, restrictions on the use of Yoqilg'i moyi to reduce carbon-dioxide emissions) should be taken now, or in the near future; and whether those restrictions would have any meaningful effect on global temperature.[iqtibos kerak ]
Because of the economic ramifications of such restrictions, there are those, including the Kato instituti, a ozodlik fikr markazi, who argue that the negative economic effects of emission controls outweigh the environmental benefits.[215] They state that even if global warming is caused solely by the burning of fossil fuels, restricting their use would have more damaging effects on the world economy than the increases in global temperature.[216]
The linkage between coal, electricity, and economic growth in the United States is as clear as it can be. And it is required for the way we live, the way we work, for our economic success, and for our future. Coal-fired electricity generation. It is necessary.(Fred Palmer, President of Western Fuels Association[216])
Conversely, others argue that early action to reduce emissions would help avoid much greater economic costs later, and would reduce the risk of catastrophic, irreversible change.[217] In his December 2006 book, Jahannam va baland suv, Jozef J. Romm
discusses the urgency to act and the sad fact that America is refusing to do so...
On a local or regional level, some specific effects of global warming might be considered beneficial.[218]
Xalqaro aloqalar bo'yicha kengash katta o'rtoq Walter Russell Mead argues that the 2009 Kopengagen sammiti failed because environmentalists have changed from "Bambi to Godzilla". According to Mead, environmentalist used to represent the skeptical few who made valid arguments against big government programs which tried to impose simple but massive solutions on complex situations. Environmentalists' more recent advocacy for big economic and social intervention against global warming, according to Mead, has made them, "the voice of the establishment, of the tenured, of the technocrats" and thus has lost them the support of a public which is increasingly skeptical of global warming.[219]
Various campaigns such as 350.org va ko'p Greenpeace projects have been started in an effort to push the world's leaders towards changing laws and policies that would effectively reduce the world's carbon emissions and use of non-renewable energy resources.[iqtibos kerak ]
Kioto protokoli
The Kyoto Protocol is the most prominent international agreement on climate change, and is also highly controversial. Some argue that it goes too far[220] or not nearly far enough[221] in restricting emissions of greenhouse gases. Another area of controversy is the fact that China and India, the world's two most populous countries, both ratified the protocol but are not required to reduce or even limit the growth of carbon emissions under the present agreement even though when listed by greenhouse gas emissions per capita, they have rankings of 121st largest per capita emitter at 3.9 Tonnes of CO
2e and 162nd largest per capita emitter at 1.8 Tonnes of CO
2e respectively, compared with for example the U.S. at position of the 14th largest per capita CO
2e emitter at 22.9 Tonnes of CO
2e. Nevertheless, China is the world's second largest producer of greenhouse gas emissions, and India 4th (see: countries by greenhouse emissions ). Various predictions see China overtaking the US in total greenhouse emissions between late 2007 and 2010,[222][223][224] and according to many other estimates, this already occurred in 2006.[225][226]
Additionally, high costs of decreasing emissions may cause significant production to move to countries that are not covered under the treaty, such as India and China, says Fred Singer.[227] As these countries are less energy efficient, this scenario is said[kim tomonidan? ]to cause additional carbon emissions.[iqtibos kerak ]
2010 yil may oyida the Hartwell Paper tomonidan nashr etilgan London iqtisodiyot maktabi bilan hamkorlikda Oksford universiteti.[228] This paper was written by 14 academics from various disciplines in the sciences and humanities, and also some policies thinkers, and they argued that the Kioto protokoli crashed in late 2009 and "has failed to produce any discernable real world reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases in fifteen years."[228] They argued that this failure opened an opportunity to set climate policy free from Kyoto and the paper advocates a controversial and piecemeal approach to karbonsizlanish of the global economy.[229][230] The Hartwell paper proposes, "the organising principle of our effort should be the raising up of human dignity via three overarching objectives: ensuring energy access for all; ensuring that we develop in a manner that does not undermine the essential functioning of the Earth system; ensuring that our societies are adequately equipped to withstand the risks and dangers that come from all the vagaries of climate, whatever their cause may be".[228][229][230]
The only major developed nation which has signed but not ratified the Kyoto protocol is the US (see signatories ). The countries with no official position on Kyoto are mainly African countries with underdeveloped scientific infrastructure or are oil producers[iqtibos kerak ].
Moliyalashtirish
The Global iqlim koalitsiyasi was an industry coalition that funded several scientists who expressed skepticism about global warming. In the year 2000, several members left the coalition when they became the target of a national divestiture campaign run by John Passacantando va Fil Radford at Ozone Action. Ga binoan The New York Times, when Ford Motor Company was the first company to leave the coalition, it was "the latest sign of divisions within heavy industry over how to respond to global warming".[231][232] After that, between December 1999 and early March 2000, the GCC was deserted by Daimler-Chrysler, Texaco, energy firm the Janubiy kompaniya and General Motors.[233] The Global iqlim koalitsiyasi closed in 2002, or in their own words, 'deactivated'.[234]
Documents obtained by Greenpeace AQSh ostida Axborot erkinligi to'g'risidagi qonun show that the Charlz G. Koch jamg'armasi gave climate change writer Villi Tez orada two grants totaling $175,000 in 2005/6 and again in 2010. Multiple grants to Soon from the Amerika neft instituti between 2001 and 2007, totalled $274,000, and from ExxonMobil totalled $335,000 between 2005 and 2010. Other coal and oil industry sources which funded him include the Mobil Foundation, the Texaco Foundation and the Elektr energetikasi ilmiy-tadqiqot instituti. Soon, acknowledging that he received this money, stated unequivocally that he has "never been motivated by financial reward in any of my scientific research".[16] In February 2015, Greenpeace disclosed papers documenting that Soon failed to disclose to academic journals funding including more than $1.2 million from fossil fuel industry related interests including ExxonMobil, the American Petroleum Institute, the Charlz G. Koch xayriya jamg'armasi and the Southern Company.[235][236][237] To investigate how widespread such hidden funding was, senators Barbara bokschi, Edward Markey va Sheldon Whitehouse wrote to a number of companies. Koch general counsel refused the request and said it would infringe the company's first amendment rights.[238]
The Greenpeace research project ExxonSecrets, and Jorj Monbiot yozish The Guardian, as well as various academics,[239][240] have linked several skeptical scientists—Fred Singer, Fred Seitz va Patrik Mayklz —to organizations funded by ExxonMobil va Filipp Morris for the purpose of promoting global warming skepticism. These organizations include the Kato instituti va Heritage Foundation.[241] Similarly, groups employing global warming skeptics, such as the George C. Marshall Institute, have been criticized for their ties to fossil fuel companies.[242]
On 2 February 2007, The Guardian aytilgan[243][244] that Kenneth Green, a Visiting Scholar with AEI, had sent letters[245] to scientists in the UK and the U.S., offering US$10,000 plus travel expenses and other incidental payments in return for essays with the purpose of "highlight[ing] the strengths and weaknesses of the IPCC process", specifically regarding the IPCC to'rtinchi baholash hisoboti.[246]
A furor was raised when it was revealed that the Intermountain Rural Electric Association (an energy cooperative that draws a significant portion of its electricity from coal-burning power plants ) donated $100,000 to Patrick Michaels and his group, New Hope Environmental Services, and solicited additional private donations from its members.[247][248][ishonchli manba? ][249]
The Xavotirga tushgan olimlar ittifoqi produced a report titled 'Smoke, Mirrors & Hot Air',[250] that criticizes ExxonMobil for "anderrayting the most sophisticated and most successful disinformation campaign since the tobacco industry" and for "funnelling about $16 million between 1998 and 2005 to a network of ideological and advocacy organizations that manufacture uncertainty on the issue". In 2006, Exxon said that it was no longer going to fund these groups[251] though that statement has been challenged by Greenpeace.[252]
The Uglerod dioksidi va global o'zgarishni o'rganish markazi, a skeptic group, when confronted about the funding of a video they put together ($250,000 for "The Greening of Planet Earth " from an oil company) stated, "We applaud Western Fuels for their willingness to publicize a side of the story that we believe to be far more correct than what at one time was 'generally accepted'. But does this mean that they fund The Center? Maybe it means that we fund them!"[253]
Donald Kennedi, bosh muharriri Ilm-fan, has said that skeptics such as Michaels are lobbyists more than researchers, and "I don't think it's unethical any more than most lobbying is unethical," he said. He said donations to skeptics amounts to "trying to get a political message across".[254]
Global isish shubhali Reid Brayson said in June 2007, "There is a lot of money to be made in this... If you want to be an eminent scientist you have to have a lot of grad students and a lot of grants. You can't get grants unless you say, 'Oh global warming, yes, yes, carbon dioxide'."[255] Similar positions have been advanced by University of Alabama, Huntsville iqlimshunos Roy Spenser, Spencer's University of Alabama, Huntsville colleague and IPCC contributor John Christy, University of London biogeographer Filipp Stott,[256] Accuracy in Media,[257] va Ian Plimer.[258]
Richard Lindzen, Alfred P. Sloan Professor Meteorologiya da MIT, said, "[in] the winter of 1989 Reginald Newell, a professor of meteorology [at MIT], lost Milliy Ilmiy Jamg'arma funding for data analyses that were failing to show net warming over the past century." Lindzen also suggested that four other scientists "apparently" lost their funding or positions after questioning the scientific underpinnings of global warming.[259] Lindzen himself has been the recipient of money from energy interests such as OPEK va G'arbiy yoqilg'i uyushmasi, including "$2,500 a day for his consulting services",[260] as well as funding from US federal sources including the National Science Foundation, the Energetika bo'limi va NASA.[261]
Debate over most effective response to warming
In recent years some skeptics have changed their positions regarding global warming. Ronald Beyli, muallifi Global Warming and Other Eco-Myths (published by the Raqobatbardosh korxonalar instituti in 2002), stated in 2005, "Anyone still holding onto the idea that there is no global warming ought to hang it up."[262] By 2007, he wrote "Details like sea level rise will continue to be debated by researchers, but if the debate over whether or not humanity is contributing to global warming wasn't over before, it is now.... as the new IPCC Summary makes clear, climate change Pollyannaism is no longer looking very tenable."[263]
"There are alternatives to its [the climate-change crusade's] insistence that the only appropriate policy response is steep and immediate emissions reductions.... a greenhouse-gas-emissions cap ultimately would constrain energy production. A sensible climate policy would emphasize building resilience into our capacity to adapt to climate changes.... we should consider strategies of adaptation to a changing climate. A rise in the sea level need not be the end of the world, as the Dutch have taught us." says Steven F. Hayward of Amerika Enterprise Institute, a conservative think-tank.[264] Hayward also advocates the use of "orbiting mirrors to rebalance the amounts of solar radiation different parts of the earth receive"—the kosmik soyabon example of so-called geoinjiniring uchun quyosh nurlanishini boshqarish.[iqtibos kerak ]
In 2001, Richard Lindzen, asked whether it was necessary to try to reduce CO
2 emissions, said that responses needed to be prioritized. "You can't just say, 'No matter what the cost, and no matter how little the benefit, we'll do this'. If we truly believe in warming, then we've already decided we're going to adjust...The reason we adjust to things far better than Bangladesh is that we're richer. Wouldn't you think it makes sense to make sure we're as robust and wealthy as possible? And that the poor of the world are also as robust and wealthy as possible?"[265]
Others argue that if developing nations reach the wealth level of the United States this could greatly increase CO
2 emissions and consumption of fossil fuels. Large developing nations such as India and China are predicted to be major emitters of greenhouse gases in the next few decades as their economies grow.[266][267]
Konservativ Siyosatni tahlil qilish milliy markazi whose "Environmental Task Force" contains a number of climate change skeptics including Sherwood Idso and S. Fred Singer[268]says, "The growing consensus on climate change policies is that adaptation will protect present and future generations from climate-sensitive risks far more than efforts to restrict CO
2 emissiya. "[269]
The adaptation-only plan is also endorsed by oil companies like ExxonMobil, "ExxonMobil's plan appears to be to stay the course and try to adjust when changes occur. The company's plan is one that involves adaptation, as opposed to leadership,"[270]says this Ceres report.[271]
Gregg Easterbrook characterized himself as having "a long record of opposing alarmism". In 2006, he stated, "based on the data I'm now switching sides regarding global warming, from skeptic to convert."[272]
The Jorj V.Bush administration also voiced support for an adaptation-only policy in the US in 2002. "In a stark shift for the Bush administration, the United States has sent a climate report [U.S. Climate Action Report 2002] to the United Nations detailing specific and far-reaching effects it says global warming will inflict on the American environment. In the report, the administration also for the first time places most of the blame for recent global warming on human actions—mainly the burning of fossil fuels that send heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere." The report however "does not propose any major shift in the administration's policy on greenhouse gases. Instead it recommends adapting to inevitable changes instead of making rapid and drastic reductions in greenhouse gases to limit warming."[273] This position apparently precipitated a similar shift in emphasis at the COP 8 climate talks in New Delhi several months later,[274] "The shift satisfies the Bush administration, which has fought to avoid mandatory cuts in emissions for fear it would harm the economy. 'We're welcoming a focus on more of a balance on adaptation versus mitigation', said a senior American negotiator in New Delhi. 'You don't have enough money to do everything.'"[275][276] The White House emphasis on adaptation was not well received however:
Despite conceding that our consumption of fossil fuels is causing serious damage and despite implying that current policy is inadequate, the Report fails to take the next step and recommend serious alternatives. Rather, it suggests that we simply need to accommodate to the coming changes. For example, reminiscent of former Interior Secretary Hodel's proposal that the government address the hole in the ozone layer by encouraging Americans to make better use of sunglasses, suntan lotion and broad-brimmed hats, the Report suggests that we can deal with heat-related health impacts by increased use of air-conditioning ... Far from proposing solutions to the climate change problem, the Administration has been adopting energy policies that would actually increase greenhouse gas emissions. Notably, even as the Report identifies increased air conditioner use as one of the 'solutions' to climate change impacts, the Department of Energy has decided to roll back energy efficiency standards for air conditioners.
— Letter from 11 State Attorneys General to George W. Bush., [277]
Some find this shift and attitude disingenuous and indicative of an inherent bias against prevention (i.e. reducing emissions/consumption) and for the prolonging of profits to the oil industry at the expense of the environment. "Endi iqlim o'zgarishini bekor qilish moda emasligi sababli, professional inkorchilar bizni choralar ko'rishimizga to'sqinlik qiladigan yana bir vositani sinab ko'rishmoqda. Iqlim o'zgarishi ta'sirini kutib, keyin ularga moslashish arzonroq bo'ladi", deyishadi ular. yozuvchi va atrof-muhit faoli Jorj Monbiot[278]iqlim o'zgarishini hal qilishning taxmin qilinadigan iqtisodiy xavf-xatarlariga bag'ishlangan maqolada. Boshqalar faqat moslashish etarli bo'lmaydi deb ta'kidlaydilar.[279]Shuningdek qarang Kopengagen konsensusi.
Garchi bir xil darajada ta'kidlanmagan bo'lsa ham yumshatish, o'zgarishi aniq bo'lgan iqlimga moslashish 1992 yildayoq muhokamada zarur tarkibiy qism sifatida kiritilgan,[280]va hamma vaqt davomida bo'lgan.[281]Ammo bu emas edi chiqarish, skeptiklar tomonidan himoya qilingan, of profilaktik yumshatish harakatlari va u erda, uglerodni kamaytirish tarafdorlari, farqni yotadi.[282]
Ob-havoning o'zgarishini yumshatish bo'yicha yana bir munozarali strategiya Qopqoqlik va savdo iqtisodiyot bilan bevosita aloqasi tufayli.[283]
2016 yil noyabr oyida Parij kelishuvi kuchga kirdi.[284]
Olimlarga siyosiy bosim
Ko'pgina iqlimshunos olimlarning ta'kidlashicha, har qanday ilmiy natijalarni buzish yoki yashirish uchun juda katta bosim o'tkazilmoqda, ular global isish uchun inson faoliyati aybdor. 2007 yilda AQSh Vakillar Palatasi Nazorat qilish va Hukumatni isloh qilish qo'mitasiga xabar bergan iqlimshunoslar o'rtasida o'tkazilgan so'rovda "" Respondentlarning deyarli yarmi "iqlim o'zgarishi", "global isish" yoki boshqa shunga o'xshash atamalarni yo'q qilish uchun bosimni sezgan yoki shaxsan boshdan kechirgan. turli xil kommunikatsiyalar. " Ushbu olimlarga global isish haqidagi hisobotlarini Bush ma'muriyatining iqlim o'zgarishi haqidagi shubhalariga moslashtirish uchun bosim o'tkazildi. Ba'zi hollarda, bu Oq Uyning atrof-muhit sifati bo'yicha kengashining boshlig'i bo'lishdan oldin Amerika neft institutida ishlagan sobiq neft sanoati lobbisti Fil Kuni iltimosiga binoan sodir bo'lgan (u 2005 yilda ExxonMobil tomonidan yollanmasdan oldin iste'foga chiqqan) .[285] 2008 yil iyun oyida NASA Bosh inspektori idorasining hisobotida Oq uy tomonidan tayinlangan NASA xodimlari Bush ma'muriyatini 2004 yilgi prezident saylovlariga yaqin qarama-qarshiliklardan himoya qilish uchun global isish haqidagi tsenzurani va bostirilgan degan xulosaga kelishdi.[286]
Kabi AQSh rasmiylari Filipp Kuni, AQSh hukumati olimlarining ilmiy ma'ruzalarini bir necha bor tahrir qilgan,[287] kabi ko'plari Tomas Knutson, iqlim o'zgarishi va tegishli mavzularni muhokama qilishdan tiyilish buyurilgan.[288][289][290] Iqlim isishi va boshqa masalalar bo'yicha ilmiy ma'lumotlarni bostirishga urinishlar jurnalist tomonidan tasvirlangan Kris Muni uning kitobida Ilm-fan bo'yicha respublika urushi.
Iqlimshunos Jeyms E. Xansen, NASA direktori Goddard kosmik tadqiqotlar instituti, keng keltirilgan maqolada yozgan Nyu-York Tayms maqola[291]2006 yilda uning agentlikdagi rahbarlari "jamoatchilikka ochiq" ma'lumotni "senzura" qilishga urinishgan. NASA buni inkor etib, bu faqat olimlardan agentlikda olib borilgan ishlar doirasida o'tkazilgan intervyulardagi shaxsiy va rasmiy hukumat o'rtasidagi fikrlarni ajratib turishini talab qilishini aytdi. Da ishlaydigan bir qancha olimlar Milliy okean va atmosfera boshqarmasi shunga o'xshash shikoyatlar bilan murojaat qilgan;[292] hukumat amaldorlari yana bir bor hukumat olimlaridan ommaviy intervyular va forumlarda qatnashayotganda shaxsiy fikrlarini aniq aniqlashlarini talab qiladigan uzoq yillik siyosatni amalga oshirayotganliklarini aytishdi.[iqtibos kerak ]
The BBC uzoq vaqtdan beri davom etayotgan dolzarb mavzular Panorama 2006 yilda ushbu masalani o'rganib chiqdi va "global isish haqidagi ilmiy ma'ruzalar muntazam ravishda o'zgartirildi va bostirildi" deb aytdi.[293]
Konsensus nuqtai nazariga qo'shilgan olimlar, ba'zida qiziqish guruhlari va matbuot tomonidan global isish sensacionizmi sifatida ko'rilgan narsadan xavotir bildirishdi. Masalan, Mayk Xulme, Tyndall iqlim tadqiqotlari markazi direktori, "katastrofik", "xaotik" va "qaytarilmas" kabi pejorativ atamalardan foydalanish tobora ko'payib borayotgani, iqlim o'zgarishi haqidagi jamoatchilik nutqini o'zgartirganligini yozdi: "Ushbu nutq endi" kabi iboralar bilan ifodalanadi. iqlim o'zgarishi biz o'ylaganimizdan ham yomonroq ", biz" Yerning iqlimida qaytarib bo'lmaydigan tepalikka "yaqinlashayotganimiz va" qaytish nuqtasida "ekanligimiz. Iqlim o'zgarishlari bo'yicha kampaniyalar tomonidan o'zimning tobora ko'proq jazolanishimga duch keldim iqlim o'zgarishiga bag'ishlangan ma'ruzalar ularning ekologik drama va bo'rttirilgan ritorikaga bo'lgan chanqog'ini qondirmadi. "[294]
Associated Press-ning 2007 yil 30 yanvardagi bayonotiga ko'ra,
Ettita davlat idoralarida iqlimshunos olimlar global isish xavfini kamaytirishga qaratilgan siyosiy bosimlarga duchor bo'lganliklarini aytmoqdalar.
Guruhlar so'rovnomaga javob bergan 279 iqlimshunos olimlarning har beshinchisidan ikkitasi o'zlarining ba'zi ilmiy ishlarining ma'nosini o'zgartirgan holda tahrir qilinganidan shikoyat qilganligini ko'rsatadigan so'rov o'tkazdilar. 279 kishining deyarli yarmi yana bir savolga javoban, qachondir ularga "global isish" yoki "iqlim o'zgarishi" haqidagi ma'lumotni hisobotdan o'chirib tashlashni buyurishgan.[295]
So'rov qo'shma hisobot sifatida nashr etildi Xavotirga tushgan olimlar ittifoqi va Hukumatning javobgarligi loyihasi.[296]
Siyosatchilarning bosimidan tashqari, ob-havoning o'zgarishi bilan shug'ullanadigan ko'plab taniqli olimlar jamoat a'zolari tomonidan tobora qattiq ta'qib qilinayotganligi haqida xabar berishdi. Tazyiq bir necha shakllarda amalga oshirilgan. AQSh Federal qidiruv byurosi aytdi ABC News Bu iqlimshunos olimlarga yuborilgan tahdidli elektron pochta xabarlarini ko'rib chiqayotgan bo'lsa, oq tanli supremacist veb-saytida har bir rasm yonida "yahudiy" so'zi yozilgan bir nechta iqlimshunoslarning rasmlari joylashtirilgan. ABC News intervyu bergan iqlimshunos olimlardan biri o'lik hayvonni ostonasiga tashlab yuborgan va endi u ko'pincha soqchilar bilan sayohat qilishiga to'g'ri keladi.[297]
2010 yil aprel oyida Virjiniya Bosh prokurori Ken Cuccinelli etakchi iqlimshunos olim Maykl E. Mann davlat firibgarligi to'g'risidagi qonunlarni buzgan bo'lishi mumkin va qonunbuzarlik uchun biron bir dalil keltirmasdan, sudga murojaat qilgan Virjiniya shtatining Bosh prokurori iqlimni o'rganish bo'yicha tadqiqot deb fuqarolik talabi sifatida Virjiniya universiteti 1999 yildan 2005 yilgacha Mann universitetning dotsenti lavozimida olgan beshta ilmiy tadqiqot grantlari bilan bog'liq bo'lgan keng ko'lamli yozuvlarni taqdim eting. Ushbu sud jarayoni akademik jamoatchilikda siyosiy motivlarga ega va kelgusidagi tadqiqotlarga sovuq ta'sir ko'rsatishi mumkinligi sababli keng tanqid qilindi.[298][299] Universitet sudga iltimosnoma bilan murojaat qildi va sudya Cuccinellining talabini tergov uchun hech qanday asos ko'rsatilmaganligi sababli rad etdi.[300] Cuccinelli qayta ko'rib chiqilgan chaqiruv chaqiruvini e'lon qildi va 2012 yil mart oyida Virjiniya Oliy sudiga murojaat qilib, Cuccinelli ushbu talablarni qo'yish vakolatiga ega emasligi to'g'risida qaror chiqardi. Natijada akademik erkinlikning g'alabasi sifatida baholandi.[301][302]
Exxon Mobil, shuningdek, ilmiy tashkilotlarni xususiy moliyalashtirish orqali ilmiy dalillarni chalg'itishi bilan mashhur. 2002 yilda Exxon Mobil Mustaqil Institutga 10000 dollar, so'ngra 2003 yilda 10000 AQSh dollari miqdorida mablag 'ajratdi. 2003 yilda Mustaqil Institut Klinton ma'muriyati davrida yaqinda kuzatilayotgan global isish uchun dalillar haqida xabar bergan tadqiqotni e'lon qildi. dalillar va topilmalar "yomon ilm" ning mahsuli sifatida.[303]
Bu Exxon Mobil moliyaviy qo'llab-quvvatlagan yagona skeptiklar konsortsiumi emas. Jorj C. Marshal instituti 1998-2005 yillarda ExxonMobil tomonidan iqlim o'zgarishini tadqiq qilish uchun 630 ming dollar mablag 'olgan. Exxon Mobil shuningdek, 1998 yildan 2005 yilgacha Konstruktiv ertaga qo'mitasi akademik va ilmiy maslahatchilar kengashiga 472 ming dollar mablag' ajratgan. Dr. Fridrix Zayts, "global isish skeptisizmining otasi" sifatida tanilgan bo'lib, 1998 yildan 2005 yilgacha Jorj C.Marshal institutining "Emeritus" raisi va "Konstruktiv ertangi kun" qo'mitasining kengashi a'zosi sifatida ishlagan.[304]
Sud jarayoni
Iqlim isishi sababli bir nechta sud ishi qo'zg'atildi. Masalan, Massachusets va atrof-muhitni muhofaza qilish agentligi oldin Amerika Qo'shma Shtatlari Oliy sudi ruxsat berdi EPA ga Toza havo to'g'risidagi qonunga binoan issiqxona gazlarini tartibga solish. Xuddi shunday yondashuvni Kaliforniya Bosh prokurori ham qabul qildi Bill Lokyer sudga murojaat qilgan Kaliforniya va General Motors Corp. avtomobil ishlab chiqaruvchilarni karbonat angidrid gazining chiqarilishini kamaytirishga majbur qilish. Ushbu sud da'vosida sud qarori yo'qligi aniqlandi va sudga yuborildi.[305][306] Uchinchi holat, Comer v Murphy Oil AQSh, Inc., Missisipidagi sud jarayoni bo'yicha advokat Jerald Maples tomonidan global isish oqibatida qazib olinadigan yoqilg'i va kimyoviy kompaniyalarni tovon puli to'lashga majbur qilish uchun sudga bergan da'vo arizasi. Sifatida tasvirlangan bezovtalik bo'yicha sud jarayoni, tuman sudi tomonidan bekor qilindi.[307] Biroq, tuman sudining qarori bekor qilingan Amerika Qo'shma Shtatlarining Beshinchi davri bo'yicha apellyatsiya sudi, tuman sudiga 2009 yil 22 oktyabrda da'vogarlarning iqlim o'zgarishi bilan bog'liq bir nechta da'volarini tiklash to'g'risida ko'rsatma bergan.[308] The Syerra klubi AQSh hukumatini ko'tarolmagani uchun sudga berdi avtomobil yoqilg'isidan foydalanish samaradorligi standartlari va shu bilan karbonat angidrid chiqindilarini kamaytiradi.[309][310]
Kelsi Kaskad, Rose Juliana va boshqalar. al. Amerika Qo'shma Shtatlariga qarshi
"Bizning bolalarimizga ishonamiz" faol tashkiloti tomonidan o'tkazilgan sud da'vosida 8-19 yoshli bir guruh da'vogarlar U. S. Federal hukumatiga "hukumat o'nlab yillar davomida karbonat angidrid (CO2) ifloslanish iqlimning katastrofik o'zgarishini keltirib chiqardi va qazilma yoqilg'i chiqindilarini qisqartirish bo'yicha zarur choralarni ko'rmadi. "2016 yil 8 aprelda AQSh sudyasi sudya Tomas Kofin sudlanuvchining ishdan bo'shatish to'g'risidagi iltimosini rad etdi, da'vogarlar sudga murojaat qilishdi, chunki ularga nomutanosib ta'sir ko'rsatiladi. "Kongress va shtat qonunchilik organlari oldidagi munozaralarning murosasizligi va inson hayoti xarajatlariga qaramay qisqa muddatli iqtisodiy manfaatlarni baholash", deb ta'kidladi Tobut, "sudlarga konstitutsiyaviy parametrlarni baholash zarurligini taqozo qilmoqda. hukumat tomonidan qabul qilingan harakat yoki harakatsizlik ».[311]
Shuningdek qarang
- Global isish tanaffusi
- Qarashning qutblanishi
- Iqlim tadqiqotlari bo'limi hujjatlari
- Iqlim tadqiqotlari bo'limi elektron pochta ziddiyati
- IPCC to'rtinchi baholash hisobotini tanqid qilish
- Global isish bo'yicha fitna nazariyasi
- Ilmiy urushlar
- Global sovutish
- Skeptik fan
- Ekologik shubha
- O'ng qanotga qarshi kurash
- Ilmni siyosiylashtirish
Izohlar
- ^ Oreskes, Naomi (2004 yil dekabr). "Fil suyagi minorasidan tashqari: Iqlim o'zgarishi bo'yicha ilmiy konsensus". Ilm-fan. 306 (5702): 1686. doi:10.1126 / science.1103618. PMID 15576594.
Bunday bayonotlar shuni ko'rsatadiki, antropogen iqlim o'zgarishi haqiqati to'g'risida ilmiy jamoatchilikda jiddiy kelishmovchiliklar bo'lishi mumkin. Bunday emas. [...] Siyosatchilar, iqtisodchilar, jurnalistlar va boshqalar iqlimshunos olimlar orasida chalkashlik, kelishmovchilik yoki kelishmovchilik kabi taassurot qoldirishi mumkin, ammo bu taassurot noto'g'ri.
CS1 maint: ref = harv (havola) - ^ Amerikaning iqlim tanlovi: Iqlim o'zgarishi fanini rivojlantirish bo'yicha panel; Milliy tadqiqot kengashi (2010). Iqlim o'zgarishi fanini rivojlantirish. Vashington, Kolumbiya okrugi: Milliy akademiyalar matbuoti. ISBN 978-0-309-14588-6. Arxivlandi asl nusxasi 2014 yil 29 mayda. Olingan 19 fevral 2014.
(p1) ... iqlim o'zgarib borayotgani va bu o'zgarishlar ko'p jihatdan inson faoliyati tufayli sodir bo'lganligi to'g'risida ko'plab tadqiqot yo'nalishlariga asoslangan kuchli, ishonchli dalillar to'plami mavjud. Ko'p narsalarni o'rganishimiz kerak bo'lsa-da, asosiy hodisa, ilmiy savollar va gipotezalar yaxshilab o'rganib chiqildi va jiddiy ilmiy munozaralar va muqobil tushuntirishlarni sinchkovlik bilan baholash oldida qat'iy turdi. * * * (p21-22) Ba'zi ilmiy xulosalar yoki nazariyalar shu qadar chuqur o'rganib chiqilgan va sinovdan o'tgan va shu qadar ko'p mustaqil kuzatuvlar va natijalar tomonidan qo'llab-quvvatlanganki, keyinchalik ularning noto'g'ri deb topilishi ehtimoli juda oz. Bunday xulosalar va nazariyalar keyinchalik aniq faktlar sifatida qaraladi. Bu Yer tizimining isishi va bu isishning katta qismi inson faoliyati tufayli bo'lishi mumkin degan xulosalar uchundir.
CS1 maint: bir nechta ism: mualliflar ro'yxati (havola) - ^ "Iqlim o'zgarishini tushunish va unga javob berish" (PDF). Amerika Qo'shma Shtatlari Milliy Fanlar Akademiyasi. 2008. Arxivlangan asl nusxasi (PDF) 2013 yil 23 aprelda. Olingan 30 may 2010.
Aksariyat olimlarning fikriga ko'ra, so'nggi o'n yilliklarda isinish, avvalambor, atmosferada parnik gazlari miqdorini ko'paytirgan inson faoliyati tufayli yuzaga kelgan.
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AAPG insoniyat tomonidan global isishga ta'sirini inkor etishda ilmiy jamiyatlar orasida yakka o'zi turadi.
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1995 yilda IPCC xulosasiga ko'ra, insonning iqlimga ta'siri hozirda sezilib turibdi. Aniqlash va atributlash bo'yicha asosiy bobning etakchi muallifi ... Benjamin J. Santer ismli Lourens Livermor milliy laboratoriyasining olimi edi.
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Ko'p qiziqarli narsalar mavjud paleoklimat Quyoshning o'zgaruvchanligi sanoatgacha bo'lgan iqlimga ta'sir qilganligini ko'rsatadigan tadqiqotlar. Yigirmanchi asrning birinchi yarmida quyosh o'zgaruvchanligining aniqlanuvchi ta'siri bo'lganligi va quyosh nurlanishining majburiy o'zgarishlari ba'zi mexanizmlar tomonidan kuchaytirilganligini, hali ham noma'lum bo'lgan global iqlim modellaridan foydalangan holda ba'zi bir aniqlash-atribut tadqiqotlari mavjud. Biroq, ushbu topilmalar zamonaviy iqlim o'zgarishi haqidagi har qanday munozaralarga aloqador emas. Bizning natijalarimiz shuni ko'rsatadiki, 1985 yildan keyin kuzatilgan global o'rtacha haroratning tez ko'tarilishini quyoshning o'zgaruvchanligi deb atash mumkin emas, mexanizmlarning qaysi biri ishlatilsa va quyosh o'zgarishi qanchalik ko'paytirilmasin.
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Xulosa qilib aytganda, biz CONUSning o'rtacha harorat tendentsiyalari yomon joylashtirilganligi sababli ko'tarilganligi haqida hech qanday dalil topa olmayapmiz ... Stansiya ta'sirining harorat tendentsiyalarida aniq rol o'ynamasligi, ehtimol keyingi tekshiruvlarni talab qiladi.
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Adabiyotlar
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Qo'shimcha o'qish
- Xulme, Mayk (2009). Nega biz iqlim o'zgarishi haqida kelishmaymiz: tortishuvlarni, harakatsizlikni va imkoniyatlarni tushunish. Kembrij, Buyuk Britaniya: Kembrij universiteti matbuoti. ISBN 978-0-521-72732-7.
Tashqi havolalar
- ResearchChannel - Amerika jamoatchiligining global iqlim o'zgarishiga qarashlari. Jon A. Krosnik tomonidan o'qilgan ma'ruza videosi, ijtimoiy olim, Stenford universiteti. Tomonidan ishlab chiqarilgan Milliy Ilmiy Jamg'arma, 2007 yil 25 oktyabr
- Janubiy Afrikani ozod qilgan ruh endi sayyorani qutqarishi kerak tomonidan Desmond Tutu
- Amerika neft instituti (A.K.A. Energy Citizens). Ona Jons haqida maqola astroturfing tomonidan neft sanoati savdo guruhi Amerika neft instituti
- Skeptik fan: Global isish skeptisizmini o'rganish
- Iqlim o'zgarishini rad etishlar va boshqalar
- Bu global isish, ahmoq Bloomberg BusinessWeek, 2012 yil 2-noyabr
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