Iroq urushi 2007 yildagi qo'shinlarning ko'tarilishi - Iraq War troop surge of 2007

Ford Motor Company-ni qayta qurish rejasi uchun qarang Oldinga yo'l.
Qo'shinlar kuchini rivojlantirish

Kontekstida Iroq urushi, to'lqinlanish Amerika Qo'shma Shtatlari Prezidentiga ishora qiladi Jorj V.Bush Xavfsizlikni ta'minlash maqsadida 2007 yilda Amerika qo'shinlari sonining ko'payishi Bag'dod va Al Anbar viloyati.[1]

Dalgalanma ostida ishlab chiqilgan ishchi nomi "Oldinga yangi yo'l"va 2007 yil yanvar oyida Bush televizion nutqi paytida e'lon qildi.[2][3] Bush Iroqqa 20 mingdan ortiq askarni (qo'shimcha beshta brigada) yuborishga buyruq berdi va ularning aksariyatini yubordi Bag'dod.[2] U shuningdek, aksariyat turlarni kengaytirdi Armiya mamlakatdagi qo'shinlar va ularning ba'zilari Dengiz piyodalari allaqachon Anbarda.[2] Prezident umumiy maqsadni "o'zini o'zi boshqarishi, o'zini himoya qilishi va o'zini qo'llab-quvvatlay oladigan va Terrorizmga qarshi kurashda ittifoqdosh bo'lgan yagona, demokratik federal Iroqni" tashkil etish deb ta'rifladi.[3] Strategiyaning asosiy elementi AQSh harbiylari uchun "Iroqliklarga mahallalarni tozalash va xavfsizligini ta'minlash, ularga mahalliy aholini himoya qilishda yordam berish va ortda qolgan Iroq kuchlarining xavfsizlikni ta'minlashga qodir bo'lishiga yordam berish uchun" e'tiborini o'zgartirish edi.[2] Prezident shundan dalolat beradiki, bu keskinlik jamoalar o'rtasida yarashish uchun qulay vaqt va sharoit yaratadi.[3]

Kuchli ichki muxolifatga qarshi va Respublikachilar mag'lubiyatidan so'ng boshlangan 2006 yil oraliq saylovlar, keskin ko'tarilish siyosiy jihatdan juda qiyin deb hisoblandi. Oq uy xodimlaridan biri siyosiy mantiqiy asosni qisqacha tushuntirib berdi: "Agar siz ayiq bo'lmoqchi bo'lsangiz, grizzli bo'ling".[4] Orqaga qarab, Hillari Klinton, Barak Obama va boshqa keskin tanqidchilar buni muvaffaqiyatli deb ta'kidlashdi.[5][6]

Terminologiya

"Oldinga yangi yo'l" iboralari,[7][8] "Oldinga yangi yo'l" va "Iroqda yangi yo'l"[9] Oq uy matbuot kotibi tomonidan keng qo'llanilgan Toni Snoud[10] Prezidentning 2007 yil 10 yanvarda siyosatning o'zgarishi to'g'risida e'lon qilgan nutqidan oldin yangiliklar va ommaviy axborot vositalari. Shuningdek, AQSh matbuoti bu o'sishni "keskin o'sish" yoki "Iroq qo'shinlarining ko'payishi" deb ataydi. Ushbu nutqdan keyin ba'zi demokratlar "atamasidan foydalanishni boshladilareskalatsiya "to'lqin" o'rniga "[11] partiyadagi boshqalar bu atamalarni bir-birining o'rnida ishlatishsa-da.[12]

Fon

2007 yil dekabrda Bag'dodda avtomashinani portlatish.

Talab

2006 yilgi saylov

So'rovnomalar shundan so'ng ko'rsatdi 2006 yilgi umumiy saylov, "Amerikaliklarning katta qismi kutmoqda Demokratlar Amerikaning Iroqdagi harbiy ishtirokini kamaytirish yoki tugatish, agar ular Kongress ustidan nazoratni qo'lga kiritgan bo'lsa ”.[13] Saylovni urushga qarshi referendum deb qarashining bu nuqtai nazarini Demokratik lider qo'llab-quvvatladi Nensi Pelosi saylovoldi kampaniyasining so'nggi kunlarida "Bu saylov Iroq haqida. Agar chindan ham odamlar kutganidek bo'lib chiqsa, Amerika xalqi gaplashar edi va ular prezidentning harakatlaridan voz kechgan bo'lar edi. yoniq. "[14] Yangiliklar ommaviy axborot vositalari AQSh Kongressining ikkala palatasidagi demokratlarning g'alabasini "Prezident Jorj V.Bush va uning respublikachilarini Vashingtondagi axloqiy mojarolar va Iroqdagi muvaffaqiyatsiz urush uchun jazolash" deb baholashdi.[15]

Demokratik pozitsiya

Uning partiyasi g'alaba qozonganidan keyin Vakillar palatasi Spikeri etib saylangan Nensi Pelosi (kim bir oydan keyin uni "to'lqinlanish taklifi" ga nisbatan nafratlanishini aniq ko'rsatib beradi)[16]) "Urushni oxirigacha etkazish - spiker sifatida mening eng ustuvor vazifam" deb nomlangan maqola yozdi. Maqolada Iroq urushi qatnashchilariga tashrif buyurganidan keyin Bethesda dengiz tibbiyot markazi, "Men u erda urushni oxiriga etkazish uchun har qachongidan ham ko'proq sodiq qoldim. Kecha hamkasblarimga so'nggi uch yarim yil davomida mamlakatimiz oldida turgan eng katta axloqiy masala Iroqdagi urush ekanligini aytdim. ... Uy qachon 2007 yil 4-yanvarda qayta yig'ilish bo'lib, demokratlar hokimiyatni qo'lga olishadi va men sizning va mamlakat oldidagi mas'uliyatimizni bilgan holda tayoqchani olaman.Yangi Demokratik Kongress eng yuqori axloqiy mezonlarga javob beradi ... [biz] rahbarlik qilishga va boshqarishga tayyor. Biz Amerika xalqining ishonchini hurmat qilamiz; ko'nglimiz qolmaydi. "[17]

Respublika mavqei

Keyingi 2006 yil AQShda oraliq saylovlar qaerda Respublikachilar Palata va Senat ustidan nazoratni yo'qotdi, a Heritage Foundation konferentsiya respublikachilar tomonidan olib borildi qamchi Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) 2006 yil 9-noyabrda "Yangi yo'l: konservativ kun tartibiga e'tibor qaratish" nomi ostida saylov natijalaridagi "to'siqlarni" tahlil qildi. Künt respublikachilarning "odatdagidek biznesning da'vogarlari o'rniga himoyachilariga aylanishganidan" xafa bo'ldi.[18]

Blunt o'z nutqini partiyasining mag'lubiyati haqida tez-tez aytilgan izohlar ro'yxatini ochib berdi, natijada natijalar qisman "Iroqdagi urushga qarshi referendum" bo'lgan. U yo'qotishni biron bir sabab bilan izohlagan degan tushunchani rad etib, "Turli nomzodlar turli sabablarga ko'ra yutqazdi" deb aytdi. U voqealarning yorqin tomonini ko'rdi: "Yaxshi xabar shuki, bu kamchiliklar, prezidentni tasdiqlash raqamlari pastligi va Iroqqa nisbatan noaniqlik bo'lsa ham, bizning nomzodlarimiz, hatto barcha sodir bo'layotgan voqealarga qaramay, ularning g'oyalari o'zlarining so'nggi kunlarida amalga oshdi. Kampaniyalar. Butun mamlakatda 78000 ovozning o'zgarishi natijani o'zgartirgan bo'lar edi. Bizning g'oyalarimiz mag'lubiyatga uchramadi; aslida biz yutdik. " U mag'lubiyat "hech bir partiyaning hokimiyat uchun doimiy da'vosi yo'qligini isbotlaydi ..." demak, u Konstitutsiyaviy tizimni olqishladi ... Bu degani, biz kabi har qanday hayotiy siyosiy harakat hech qachon to'xtab qolmaslik yoki xotirjam bo'lishga qodir emas. Biz o'z g'oyalarimizni doimo yangilab turishimiz kerak. , bizning ko'rsatkichlarimizni baholang va kerak bo'lganda tuzatishlar kiriting.Bu uchala narsani ham amalga oshirish uchun eng zo'r bir avlod uchun Reygan konservatorlar buni amalga oshirish qobiliyatini doimiy ravishda namoyish etib kelmoqdalar. Bu bizning islom totalitarizmi tahdidlariga javob berishimiz va terroristik dushmanlarimiz bilan kurashishimizdan ko'ra aniqroq bo'lgan. "Dedi u." Islom totalitarizmining tahdidlari ba'zida turli xil taktikalarni talab qilsa-da, biz ushbu muammolarga bir xil qaror bilan yaqinlashmoqdamiz. kommunizmni yengishimizga imkon berdi. Ishonchim komilki, bu kurashda biz ham g'alaba qozonamiz, chunki Amerika xalqi g'alaba qozonish kerakligini tushunadi. Biz Islom totalitarizmiga qarshi kurashni davom ettirishimiz va Iroq va Afg'onistondagi urushda g'alaba qozonish irodasini davom ettirishimiz kerak. ... [Urush va ichki masalalar to'g'risida] Bizning rejamiz o'tgan bir necha yilgi xatolardan qochish kerak. ... Ishonchim komilki, biz oldinga muvaffaqiyatli qadam tashlaymiz ”.[19]

Strategiyani ishlab chiqish

Senturion prognozlari

2005 yil yanvar oyida Milliy mudofaa universiteti Iroqdagi saylovlarda qaysi guruhlar saylovlarni qo'llab-quvvatlashini, kimlar ularga qarshi turishini va qaysi biri betaraf qolishini aniqlash uchun o'zining "Senturion" prognozli tahlil dasturini qo'lladi. Senturionning prognozlari asosan voqealar rivoji tomonidan tasdiqlangan. Boshqa narsalar qatori, Senturion "Iroqdagi koalitsiya harbiy kuchining kuchayishi, Iroqdagi ulush egalarining saylovlarga bo'lgan munosabatini yanada xavfsizroq his qilishlari bilan yaxshilaydi" deb bashorat qilgan. Simulyatsiyalar shuni ko'rsatdiki, qo'shinlarning kuchini 50 foizga oshirish maqbul bo'lgan, ammo 25 foizga ko'payishi “neytral iroqliklar” ni qo'llab-quvvatlash uchun etarli bo'lar edi. Shuningdek, Iroqning tasavvurlari tufayli AQSh yoki koalitsiya kuchlari o'rniga Birlashgan Millatlar Tashkilotining tinchlikparvar kuchlaridan foydalanish, kichikroq sonli qo'shinlar bilan bir xil natijalarga erishishi mumkinligi aniqlandi. Ushbu tahlillar "o'tkazilgan va voqealar oldidan hukumatning yuqori darajadagi qaror qabul qiluvchilariga ma'lumot berilgan."[20]

Iroqni o'rganish guruhi hisoboti

Asosiy maqola: Iroqni o'rganish guruhi hisoboti

2006 yil 6 dekabrda Iroqni o'rganish guruhi Iroqda ijobiy taraqqiyotga erishish uchun tashqi va ichki yondashuvlarni tavsiya qiladigan o'zlarining hisobotlarini taqdim etdilar. Boshqa yondashuvlar qatorida, hisobotda "Qo'shma Shtatlar Iroq armiyasining bo'linmalariga ko'milgan va ularni qo'llab-quvvatlovchi AQSh harbiy xizmatchilari sonini, shu jumladan jangovar qo'shinlarni sonini sezilarli darajada ko'paytirishi kerak" degan maslahat berildi.[21] Shu bilan birga, ushbu til hisobotning 79 ta tavsiyalarining birortasida maxsus kiritilmagan. ISG hisobotida o'qitish uchun 10 mingdan 20 mingtagacha qo'shilish mumkinligi haqida so'z yuritilgan, ammo faqat 2008 yil boshigacha. Hamrais rais Jeyms Beyker "Iroqdagi voqealar biz tavsiya qilgan narsalardan o'tib ketishi mumkinligi sababli ... [a'zolari] qarorlar milliy rahbarlarimiz tomonidan shoshilinch ravishda qabul qilinishi kerak deb hisoblashadi".[22] Hisobotni olgandan so'ng Bush guruhga "biz har bir taklifga jiddiy yondoshamiz va o'z vaqtida ish tutamiz" dedi.[22]

Kunning ikkinchi yarmida Oq uy vakili Toni Snoud aytdi CNN "s Larri King Bush tavsiyalarni taqqoslaganda " Iroqni o'rganish guruhi tomonidan kutilayotgan tadqiqotlar bilan Birlashgan shtab boshliqlari va Milliy xavfsizlik kengashi."[22] Ko'rib chiqish tugagandan so'ng, Snoud Prezident yil oxirigacha Iroqda "yangi rivojlanish yo'lini e'lon qilishi" mumkinligiga ishongan.[22]

Davlat departamenti

2006 yil 11 dekabrda Bush Katta bilan uchrashdi Davlat departamenti maslahatchilar (jumladan, davlat kotibi) Kondoliza Rays ) "Bushning yangi strategiya bilan chiqish vazifasi doirasida AQShning Iroqdagi siyosatini qanday shakllantirish to'g'risida".[23] U 2006 yilgi Rojdestvo arafasida ushbu strategiyani xalqqa etkazish niyatini yana bir bor ta'kidladi va "Bizda Davlat departamenti va Mudofaa vazirligining sa'y-harakatlari va ularning tavsiyalari bir-biri bilan chambarchas bog'liq ekanligiga ishonch hosil qilishimiz kerak. Men Amerika xalqi bilan gaplashaman, ular men hukumatning barcha jabhalarini tinglaganimni va oldinga boradigan maqsadimiz - Iroqda muvaffaqiyatga erishish yo'limiz ekanligini bilishadi. "[23]

Mutaxassislar

Keyinchalik 2006 yil 11 dekabrda Bush "tarixchilar va sobiq generallarni o'z ichiga olgan bir guruh iroqlik mutaxassislar bilan uchrashdi Oval ofis."[23] The Vashington Post ekspertlar guruhi orasida iste'fodagi to'rt yulduzli generallar borligini xabar qildi Barri Makkaffri, Ueyn A. Dauning va Jon Kin; akademiklar bilan birga Stiven Biddl va Eliot Koen, kim Iroqni o'rganish guruhining tavsiyalarini o'chirib tashladi.[24] The Xabar "guruh Iroqqa qo'shimcha qo'shin yuborish yoki bermaslik masalasidagi asosiy masalada ixtilof qilgan, iste'fodagi general Jon M. Kin xavfsizlikni yaxshilash uchun bir necha ming qo'shimcha askar ishlatilishi mumkinligi haqida bahs yuritgan Bag'dod va boshqalar ushbu taklifga shubha bildirmoqda. "[24] Shuningdek, guruh Bushga o'zining milliy xavfsizlik guruhidagi xodimlarini almashtirishni taklif qildi. Panelning bir a'zosi "Barchamiz muvaffaqiyatsizlikka uchraganmiz, sizga yangi jamoa kerak" deb aytgan.[24] Prezident panelga minnatdorchilik bildirdi va jurnalistlarga "Men ushbu sohadagi odamlardan bergan maslahatimni qadrlayman. Va bu maslahat Iroqda yangi yo'lni ochishning muhim tarkibiy qismidir" dedi.[24]

The Markaziy razvedka boshqarmasi Isyonga qarshi kurash bo'yicha eng yuqori darajadagi ekspertlar AQSh kuchlarining borligi barqarorlikni ta'minlovchi omil deb topdilar. Bret X. Makgurk "biz mavjud bo'lganimizda, biz mahalliy nizolarni nazoratdan chiqmasdan oldin hal qilishga yordam bera olamiz, politsiyachilar Iroq kuchlarining noqonuniy xatti-harakatlarini amalga oshiradilar va pirovardida iroqliklarga o'zlarining o'zaro munosabatlarini rivojlantirishga yordam beramiz".[25]

Qo'shma boshliqlar

Bush 2007 yil may oyida Pentagonda AQShning yuqori martabali harbiy rahbarlari bilan uchrashuvdan so'ng jurnalistlarga Iroqdagi urush to'g'risida bayonot berdi.

2006 yil 13 dekabrda Bush va vitse-prezident Dik Cheyni a'zolari bilan uchrashdi Birlashgan shtab boshliqlari "bir soatdan ko'proq" davomida, Iroq uchun turli xil harbiy variantlarni muhokama qilish. "Hech qanday dramatik takliflar" ilgari surilmagan bo'lsa-da, "harbiylar tomonidan nimalar qilinishi mumkin va mumkin emasligiga amaliy baho berish" taklif qilindi.[26]

Ular "Iroqqa ko'p sonli qo'shin qo'shishni ma'qullamadilar", ammo "Iroq armiyasini kuchaytirishni ma'lum darajadagi barqarorlikka erishish uchun hal qiluvchi omil" deb bildilar. Ular "AQShni iqtisodiy qayta qurish va siyosiy kelishuvga qaratilgan ko'proq sa'y-harakatlari" uchun bosim o'tkazdilar. Ular "ish bilan ta'minlanish dasturlari, qayta qurish va siyosiy yarashish ... [o'sib kelayotgan militsiyalardan yosh yigitlarni tortib olishning kaliti" kerakligini) ta'kidladilar. Ularning so'zlariga ko'ra, "Iroq uchun mutlaqo harbiy echim yo'q" va "siyosiy va iqtisodiy jabhalarda katta yutuqlarsiz AQShning aralashuvi shunchaki vaqtni sotib olmoqda". Shuningdek, ular "har qanday yangi strategiya mintaqaviy kontekstga, xususan, siyosiy yoki harbiy qarorlarning ta'siriga sezgir bo'lishga" chaqirgan. Ular shialarning ko'pchiligiga haddan tashqari ko'mak berish mintaqadagi sunniy xalqlarni sunniy isyonchilarni qo'llab-quvvatlashni kuchayishiga va Iroqdagi eng yirik shia militsiyasi - Mahdiy armiyasiga qarshi tazyiq Eronning ko'proq aralashuviga sabab bo'lishi mumkinligidan qo'rqishadi.[26]

Chiarelli rejasi

Umumiy Jorj Uilyam Keysi Jr. AQShning Iroqdagi eng yuqori qo'mondoni "Amerika harbiy missiyasini u erda qayta belgilash rejasini ko'rib chiqmoqda: AQSh qo'shinlari Iroq shaharlaridan chiqarilib, AQShning bir nechta bazalarida birlashtirilib, kunlik jangovar vazifa bajarilishi kerak edi" Iroq armiyasiga topshirilsin. " Aytishlaricha, u "yana Iroq armiyasini kuchaytirishga yordam berish uchun kengaytirilgan o'quv missiyasi tarkibida qo'shimcha qo'shin so'rash yoki bermaslik to'g'risida o'ylayapti". Ushbu variantlarni AQShning amaldagi qo'mondoni general-leytenant tayyorlagan. Piter V. Chiarelli. Chiarelli rejasiga binoan "harbiylar 15 ta jangovar brigadasining taxminan yarmini qo'zg'olonchilar va mazhablararo zo'ravonliklarga qarshi kurashdan va 2007 yil bahoridanoq Iroq xavfsizlik kuchlarini tayyorlashga yo'naltirishi kerak edi ... Hozirda AQShning 4000 ga yaqin harbiy xizmatchilari 11- Iroq qo'shinlari tarkibiga kiritilgan harbiy mashg'ulotlar guruhlari.Yangi reja har bir jamoaga 30 tadan askar qo'shib, ularga Iroq armiyasi kompaniyalari darajasigacha nazorat va murabbiylik qilish imkoniyatini beradi ... ... AQSh jangovar kuchlarining qolgan etti-sakkiz brigadasi. uchta asosiy vazifaga e'tiboringizni qarating: Al-Qoida bilan zarba berish, Iroq chegaralari bo'ylab xavfsizlikni kuchaytirish va AQSh kuchlarining Iroqda harakatlanish erkinligini ta'minlash uchun katta magistral yo'llarni va boshqa yo'llarni himoya qilish ... Reja AQSh qo'shinlarining katta miqdordagi qisqarishiga yo'l qo'ymaydi. Keyingi bir yil ichida Iroq - bu qo'shinlarning ko'payishiga ham chaqirmaydi ". Harbiy matbuot kotibi general-mayor Uilyam Kolduellning aytishicha, "Iroqning shimoliy va g'arbiy qismida AQSh qo'mondonlari o'zlarini Iroq armiyasining quyi darajadagi bo'linmalariga maslahatchilar sifatida joylashtirish uchun jangovar topshiriqlardan olib chiqib ketishmoqda".[26]

Boshliqlar "AQSh qurolli kuchlarining dunyodagi boshqa inqirozlarni bartaraf etish qobiliyatining eroziyasidan xavotir bildirishdi, chunki Iroqdagi og'ir majburiyat va qo'shinlar va texnikadagi stress". Ular Bushga "yangi favqulodda vaziyat yuzaga kelganda tayyor bo'lish xavfi sezilarli darajada oshganini" aytdi.[26]

Keyin jurnalistlar bilan suhbatda Bush "Bizning harbiylarimiz bu ishni yolg'iz o'zi bajara olmaydi. Bizning harbiylarimizga samarali siyosiy strategiya kerak" dedi. Shuningdek, u Iroqni xavfsizligini ta'minlash bo'yicha doimiy majburiyatini ta'kidlab, "Agar biz asabimizni yo'qotib qo'ysak, Iroq hukumatining muvaffaqiyat qozonishiga yordam berishga qat'iy qaror qilmasak, biz Iroqni bizga zarar etkazadigan dushmanga topshiramiz" dedi. O'zining yangi yo'lini qachon e'lon qilishi kerakligi to'g'risida bosim o'tkazilganda, u qarorga "shoshilmasligini" aytdi va hali ham o'z imkoniyatlarini ko'rib chiqmoqda.[26]

14-dekabr kuni sharhlar

2006 yil 14 dekabrda jurnalistlar Bushning bu boradagi fikrlari to'g'risida ko'proq ma'lumot olish uchun bosishganda, "Men sizga muvaffaqiyat qozonishingizga yordam beradigan strategiyani ishlab chiqish uchun juda ko'p maslahatlarni tinglayapman. Men o'z rejalarimni amalga oshiraman. uzoq muhokamadan so'ng, barqaror muhokama qilinganidan keyin. Men shoshilinch qaror qabul qilishga shoshilmayman. " U ba'zi bir "qiziqarli" fikrlarni eshitganligini aytdi. Shuningdek, u mag'lubiyatga olib keladigan ba'zi g'oyalarni eshitganligini aytdi ... [va] men bu fikrlarni rad etaman. Ish tugashidan oldin ketish kabi g'oyalar. Ushbu (Iroq) hukumatiga kerakli va og'ir qadamlarni tashlashda yordam bermaslik kabi fikrlar. o'z ishini bajara olish ". U kelayotgan mudofaa kotibini xohlashini aytdi Robert Geyts "vaziyatni baholashga ulgurish" va o'z takliflari bilan chiqish. O'sha kuni Iroq Prezidenti Jalol Talabani Bushning "u yangi Iroq strategiyasida" sizning manfaatlaringizga zid "bo'lgan qarorlarni qabul qilmasligini" va'da qilganligini yozma ravishda e'lon qildi ... [va uning va'dasi] Bosh vazir bilan ishlash Nuri al-Malikiy Bog'dod xavfsizlik rejasini amalga oshirishga qaratilgan sa'y-harakatlari to'g'risida ". CNN telekanalining xabar berishicha," ma'muriyat rasmiylari Bush u olgan ba'zi ma'lumotlardan "qoniqmayapti" va Iroqdagi turli xil variantlar bo'yicha "odamlardan undan ko'proq ma'lumot olishlarini so'rayapti" deb aytdi. "[27]

Dastlab 2006 yil oxiriga rejalashtirilgan bo'lsa-da, "yangi yo'l" haqidagi e'lon Prezidentga ma'lumot to'plash uchun "ko'proq vaqt" berish uchun kechiktirildi. Matbuot kotibi Toni Snouning aytishicha, ma'muriyat prezidentdan Rojdestvo oldidan nutq so'zlashiga umid qilmoqda, garchi uning so'zlariga ko'ra, bu muddat mixlangan emas.[iqtibos kerak ]

Amerika Enterprise Institute

Bu American Enterprise Institute dalgalanmalarini o'rganish havolasi 14 dekabr kuni e'lon qilingan bo'lib, uning muallifi tomonidan "Iroqni o'rganish bo'yicha haqiqiy guruh hisoboti" deb nomlangan.[28] Loyiha 14 dekabr kuni tomonidan taqdim etildi Frederik Kagan, AEI, umumiy Jek Kin va Kennet Pollak. AEI o'zining so'nggi hisobotini 2007 yil 5-yanvar kuni "Iroq: burilish nuqtasi (Iroqdan senatorlarning hisobotlari bilan) nomi ostida nashr etdi. Jon Makkeyn va Jozef Liberman )".[29] Tadbir tavsifida quyidagilar bayon etilgan:

Tadqiqot Bog'dodning muhim hududlarini himoya qilish va himoya qilish uchun AQSh kuchlarining katta va barqaror o'sishini talab qiladi. Janob Kagan hisobotni harbiy va mintaqaviy mutaxassislar, jumladan, general Kin, Afg'oniston koalitsiyasining sobiq qo'mondoni general-leytenant bilan maslahatlashgan holda boshqargan. Devid Barno va boshqa ofitserlar muvaffaqiyatli operatsiyalar bilan shug'ullanishgan 3-zirhli otliq polki yilda Tal Afar. Hisobotning vaqtinchalik versiyasi 2006 yil 14-dekabrda e'lon qilindi. Ushbu tadbirda janob Kagan va general Kin AQShning Iroqda qanday g'alaba qozonishi va nima uchun g'alaba yagona maqbul natijani ko'rsatadigan yakuniy hisobotini taqdim etishadi.

Endryu Ross San-Fransisko xronikasi[30][31] Bushning strategiyasini ham shu bilan bog'laydi Amerika Enterprise Institute "Prezident Bushning harbiy qo'riqchini almashtirish va" keskinlik "variantini ilgari surish bilan bir qatorda, qayta qurish, ish o'rinlari yaratish va" mo''tadil Iroq siyosiy partiyalari uchun markazni qurish vositasi sifatida ko'proq mablag 'sarflanadi " "Bosh vazir Nuri al-Malikiyni qo'llab-quvvatlash uchun siyosiy koalitsiya", deydi "Wall Street Journal". Ushbu yanada yaxlit yondashuv - "Yangilanish yo'li" deb nomlangan xabar - ko'p jihatdan ushbu maqolani aks ettiradi. Amerika Enterprise Institute, muallif Frederik Kagan, "to'lqinlanish opsiyasi" ning asosiy harakatlantiruvchisi sifatida tanilgan. "

Taqdimot

Nutqdan oldin kutish

Bush ba'zi manbalarga ko'ra 20 ming askarga teng bo'lishi mumkin bo'lgan kuchlarning "keskin o'sishini" e'lon qilishi kutilgan edi. Reuters xabariga ko'ra, "Bush Iroqdagi siyosatini, shu jumladan iqtisodiy va siyosiy tarkibiy qismlarini to'liq qayta ko'rib chiqishini e'lon qilar ekan, qo'shinlar sonini ko'paytirish ehtimoli ko'proq e'tiborni tortdi. Bu masala bo'yicha bo'linishga qaramay, Bush so'nggi kunlarda bunga ishora qilmoqda. Iroqliklarga u erdagi xavfsizlik bilan bog'liq vaziyatni nazorat qilishda yordam berishni xohlaganini aytib, qo'shin kuchini ko'paytirishni afzal ko'rish. "Bir narsa aniq, men missiyaning aniq va aniq ekanligiga ishonch hosil qilishni xohlayman", dedi Bush. Payshanba kuni qo'shinlarning ko'payishi to'g'risida so'ralganda. "[32] Darhaqiqat, Bushning taklif qilingan sonini ko'paytirish 21000 AQSh qo'shinini tashkil etdi, ulardan 4000 nafari dengiz piyoda qo'shinlariga qaratiladi Al Anbar viloyati boshqalari esa Iroqning xavfsizligini ta'minlash uchun Iroq bo'linmalariga joylashtirilishi kerak edi.

Prebuttallar

Jon Soltz Demokratik matbuot anjumanida so'zga chiqib.

Sal oldin 110-kongress 4-yanvar kuni yig'ilgan ba'zi demokratlar Mudofaa vaziri Robert Geytsni "prezident rejasini himoya qilishga urinmasangiz, tushuntirish uchun" Senatning Qurolli kuchlar qo'mitasi oldiga qo'ng'iroq qilishni rejalashtirganliklarini aytishdi.[33]

Ushbu chiqishdan oldin AQSh a'zosi, senator Jek Rid (D-RI) Qurolli xizmatlar qo'mitasi, NATOning sobiq Ittifoqi Oliy qo'mondoni general bilan matbuot anjumani o'tkazdi Uesli Klark va Jon Soltz, Senator Chak Shumer (D-NY), senator Patty Myurrey (D-WA) va birgalikda Bushni "generallari va Amerika xalqining maslahatlarini tinglashga va Iroqdagi yo'nalishni o'zgartirish uchun yangi rejani taklif qilishga" chaqirgan.[34]

Rejani e'lon qilish

Prezident Jorj V.Bush Oq uy kutubxonasidan 2007 yil 10 yanvarda Iroq bo'yicha yangi strategiyani e'lon qildi.

10 yanvar kuni milliy televideniye orqali qilgan chiqishida Bush "Amerika iroqliklarga mazhablararo zo'ravonliklarni to'xtatish va Bag'dod aholisiga xavfsizlik o'rnatish kampaniyasini olib borishda yordam berish uchun bizning strategiyamizni o'zgartiradi. Buning uchun Amerika kuchlari sonini oshirish kerak bo'ladi. Shuning uchun men" Iroqqa 20 mingdan ziyod qo'shimcha Amerika qo'shinlarini jalb qildi, ularning aksariyati - beshta brigada - Bag'dodga joylashtiriladi ".[2]

Shu kuni nutq so'zlagan ABC News telekanali to'qson askarni oldinga o'tishini e'lon qildi 82-havo-desant diviziyasi allaqachon Bag'dodga etib kelgan edi.

2007 yil Ittifoq davlati manzili

Asosiy maqola: 2007 yil Ittifoq holati

Oldindan Ittifoq davlati Bush bir nechta reklama nutqlarini o'tkazdi Belo televizor va Sinkler televideniesi, shoshilinch ravishda "imkoniyat berilishi kerak" deb taklif qildi va tanqidiy qonunchilarga alternativani taklif qilishni talab qildi.[35]

23-yanvar, seshanba kuni kechasi prezident Iroqdagi qo'shinlar sonining ko'payishi haqida shunday dedi va uning maqsadi Iroq hukumatining nazoratni qo'llab-quvvatlashini qo'llab-quvvatlashdan iborat edi:

Ushbu maqsad sari ilgarilash uchun Iroq hukumati o'z poytaxtidagi mazhablararo zo'ravonlikni to'xtatishi kerak. Ammo iroqliklar buni o'z-o'zidan qilishga hali tayyor emaslar. Shunday qilib, biz Iroqqa 20 mingdan ziyod qo'shimcha askar va dengiz piyoda askarlarini qo'shmoqdamiz. Mutlaq ko'pchilik Bag'dodga boradi, u erda Iroq kuchlarini tozalash va xavfsizligini ta'minlashga yordam beradi mahallalar va Iroq armiyasining qismlarida joylashgan maslahatchilar sifatida xizmat qiladi. Iroqliklar etakchi bo'lsa, bizning kuchlarimiz terrorchilarni, qo'zg'olonchilarni va rouming o'lim otryadlarini ta'qib qilib, shahar xavfsizligini ta'minlashga yordam beradi. Va Al-Qoida terrorchilari to'plangan va mahalliy kuchlar ularga qarshi kurashishga tayyorligini ko'rsatgan Anbar viloyatiga biz yana 4000 nafar Amerika Qo'shma Shtatlarining dengiz piyoda piyoda askarlarini yuboramiz, ularga terrorchilarni topish va ularni yo'q qilish bo'yicha buyruqlar beriladi. (Qarsaklar.) Biz al-Qoidani Afg'onistondagi xavfsiz joyidan quvib chiqarmadik, chunki ularga faqat erkin Iroqda yangi boshpana yaratishga ruxsat bering.

Javob

Nutqdan keyingi bahs-munozaralarning mazmuni "Bush ma'muriyati bilan uning taklif qilingan echimi bo'yicha keng tarqalgan kelishmovchilikni va AQSh birinchi navbatda urushga kirishishda to'g'ri qaror qabul qildi degan shubhalarning kuchayib borishini" aks ettirdi.[36] Ba'zi tortishuvlar, to'liq chiqib ketishga qarshi qo'shimcha qo'shinlarni jalb qilishning maqsadga muvofiqligi, Iroq urushining keskin ko'tarilishidan qat'i nazar, "g'alaba qozonishi" va hoshiya masalaning.[36]

Qo'llab-quvvatlovchilar

The New York Times Massachusets shtatining sobiq gubernatori haqida xabar berdi Mitt Romni va Nyu-Yorkning sobiq meri Rudolf Djuliani Bush qo'shinni ko'paytirmoqda.[37] Makkeyn xuddi shunday yo'l tutib, 12 yanvar kuni "Qo'shimcha koalitsiya kuchlarining mavjudligi Iroq hukumatiga bugun o'zi bajara olmaydigan ishlarni o'zi bajarishga imkon beradi: butun mamlakat bo'ylab o'z hukmronligini o'rnatadi" dedi.[37]

Raqiblar

Bushning 10 yanvardagi rejasini e'lon qilgan nutqidan so'ng darhol demokrat siyosatchilar, shu jumladan Ted Kennedi, Garri Rid va Dennis Kucinich,[38] Kongressni to'lqinlanishni rad etishga chaqirdi.[39] Senator Dik Durbin Iroqliklarni "militsiya va o'lim guruhlarini tarqatib yuborishga" chaqirgan Demokratik javob berdi. 18-yanvar kuni Sinxua yangiliklar agentligi "oq uyning umidvorlari" Sens. Hillari Klinton, D-N.Y., Barak Obama, D-Ill., Kris Dodd, D-Conn., Jo Bayden, D-Del va Sem Braunbek, R-Kansas, ularning barchasi 13-yanvar kuni Iroqdagi voqealar rivojidan noroziligini bildirdi[40]

17-yanvar kuni Moveon.org "to'lqinlanish strategiyasini" aniqlagan reklama e'lon qildiMakkeyn g'oyasi ".[37] The Nyu-York Tayms Prezidentlikka nomzod deb xabar berdi Jon Edvards "ma'muriyat taklifiga" Makkeyn doktrinasi "deb murojaat qilishni qabul qilgan".[37]

18 yanvar kuni Los Anjeles Tayms ozod qilingan Bloomberg So'rovda qatnashganlarning 60 foizi qo'shinlarning ko'payishiga qarshi, 51 foizi Kongressning Bushni ko'proq askarlar yuborishiga to'sqinlik qilmoqchi bo'lishini va 65 foiz prezidentning urush bilan shug'ullanishini ma'qullamaganligini bildirgan so'rovnoma. Shu bilan birga, Fox News so'rovnomasida 59 foizdan 36 foizgacha amerikaliklar Iroqqa ko'proq AQSh qo'shinlarini yuborishga qarshi ekanligi ma'lum qilindi.[41]

Kongress

AQSh Kongressi muxolifat
Amerikaning ishtirokiga
urushlar va aralashuvlar
Qo'shma Shtatlar
1812 Shimoliy Amerika
Uy federalistlarining manzili
1847 Meksika-Amerika urushi
Spot qarorlari
1917 Birinchi jahon urushi
Qurolli kema to'g'risidagi qonun loyihasini to'ldirish
1935–1939
Neytrallik to'g'risidagi aktlar
1935–1940
Ludlovga tuzatish
1970 Vetnam
McGovern-Hatfield-ga tuzatish
1970 Janubi-sharqiy Osiyo
Kuper-cherkovga o'zgartirishlar
1971 yil Vetnam
Tonkin ko'rfazi rezolyutsiyasini bekor qilish
1973 yil Janubi-Sharqiy Osiyo
Keys-cherkovga o'zgartirishlar kiritish
1973
Urush kuchlari qarori
1974
Xyuz-Rayanning tuzatishlari
1976 Angola
Klarkning tuzatilishi
1982 Nikaragua
Boland tuzatish
2007 Iroq
Uyning bir vaqtning o'zida qarori 63
2018–2019 Yaman
Yaman urush kuchlari qarori

16-yanvar kuni Respublika Chak Xeygl, Delaver shtatidagi demokrat Jo Bayden (Senatning tashqi aloqalar qo'mitasi va Michigan Demokrat Karl Levin (Qurolli xizmatlar qo'mitasi kafedra) birgalikda homiylik qilgan a majburiy bo'lmagan qaror "Iroqdagi harbiy ishtirokini chuqurlashtirish Amerika Qo'shma Shtatlarining milliy manfaatlariga mos kelmasligini" aytdi.[42]

Vakillar palatasi spikeri Nensi Pelosining aytishicha, uning palatasidagi demokratlar a majburiy bo'lmagan qaror "Prezident Bushning Iroqqa qo'shimcha kuchlar yuborish to'g'risidagi qarori" AQShning milliy manfaatlariga mos kelmasligini "e'lon qildi." Washington Times Pelosi "o'tgan hafta Bush taklifini e'lon qilguniga qadar" to'lqinlanish "taklifiga nisbatan nafratini ochiq aytdi, ammo uning so'nggi so'zlari" uning ma'qullashi istagan tilning birinchi ko'rsatkichi bo'ldi ".[43]

Uch kunlik bahs-munozaralardan so'ng, 2007 yil 16 fevralda Vakillar Palatasi palatadan o'tdi Bir vaqtning o'zida hal qilish (HCR) 63, 246, 182 ga qarshi ovoz berdi.[44] Qarorda:

  1. Kongress va Amerika xalqi Iroqda xizmat qilayotgan yoki mardlik bilan va sharaf bilan xizmat qilgan Amerika Qo'shma Shtatlari qurolli kuchlari a'zolarini qo'llab-quvvatlaydi va himoya qiladi; va
  2. Kongress Prezident Jorj V.Bushning 2007 yil 10 yanvarda Iroqqa Qo'shma Shtatlarning qo'shimcha 20 mingdan ortiq jangovar qo'shinlarini joylashtirish to'g'risidagi qarorini ma'qullamaydi.[45]

Vakillar palatasidan o'tgandan so'ng, Senatning ko'pchilik etakchisi Garri Rid (D-NV) 2007 yil 17 fevralda Senatning g'ayritabiiy shanba sessiyasini chaqirdi va bir xil so'z bilan qabul qilingan qarorni ko'rib chiqdi. Biroq, o'lchov a kiyim 56-34 ovozda harakat muvaffaqiyatsiz tugadi (munozarani tugatish uchun zarur bo'lgan 60 ta ovozdan to'rtta ovoz kam).[46][47]

Pelosi, keskin ko'tarilishga qarshi bo'lganiga qaramay, Kongressning qo'shimcha qo'shinlarni moliyalashtirishga to'sqinlik qilmasligini e'lon qildi.[48]

Garchi o'sha paytdagi senator Xillari Klinton to'lqinlarning ko'tarilishiga qarshi bo'lgan bo'lsa-da, keyinchalik u shaxsiy oqimda uning ko'tarilishiga qarshi bo'lganligi ichki siyosiy sabablarga ko'ra bo'lganligini aytgan.[49]

Amalga oshirish

Kadrlar o'zgarishi

Dalgalanish bilan birgalikda Bush ma'muriyati bir nechta kadrlar almashinuvini amalga oshirdi:[50]

Bo'limlar joylashtirilgan

Olamning bir qismi sifatida AQSh armiyasining oltita brigadasi Iroqqa sodiq qoldi

  1. 2-brigada, 82-desant diviziyasi (Piyoda askarlar): 3,447 qo'shin. 2007 yil yanvar oyida Bog'dodga joylashtirilgan
  2. 4-brigada, 1-piyoda diviziyasi (Piyoda askarlar): 3,447 qo'shin. 2007 yil fevral oyida Bag'dodga joylashtirilgan
  3. 3-brigada, 3-piyoda diviziyasi (Og'ir): 3,784 qo'shin. Janubga joylashtirilgan Bag'dod kamarlari, 2007 yil mart
  4. 4-brigada, 2-piyoda diviziyasi (Stryker): 3,921 qo'shin. Joylashtirilgan Diyala viloyati, 2007 yil aprel
  5. 2-brigada, 3-piyoda diviziyasi (Og'ir): 3,784 qo'shin. 2007 yil may oyida Bag'dodning janubi-sharqida joylashgan
  6. 1-brigada, 10-tog 'bo'limi (Nur), 2007 yil sentyabr, Kerkukka joylashtirilgan

Bu Iroqdagi AQSh brigadalarining sonini 15 dan 20 gacha olib keldi. Qo'shimcha ravishda 4000 kishi Dengiz piyodalari yilda Al Anbar ularning 7 oylik safari uzaytirildi. Ular qatoriga dengiz piyodalari ham kirgan 15-dengiz ekspeditsiya bo'limi, 31-dengiz ekspeditsiya bo'limi, 2-batalyon 4-dengiz piyodalari, 1-batalyon 6-dengiz piyodalari va 3-batalyon, 4-dengiz piyodalari. Armiya xodimlarining ko'pchiligining 12 oylik sayohatlari ham uzaytirildi. 2007 yil iyulga kelib Iroq va Afg'onistonga safarbar etilgan armiyaning ulushi deyarli 30% ni tashkil etdi; Iroq va Afg'onistonga safarbar qilingan dengiz piyoda qo'shinlarining ulushi 13,5% ni tashkil etdi.[55]

Amaliyotlar

Ushbu reja Bog'dodni xavfsizligini ta'minlash bo'yicha katta operatsiyadan boshlandi "Fardh al-Qanoon" operatsiyasi (Amalga tatbiq etuvchi qonun), 2007 yil fevral oyida boshlangan. Ammo, faqat 2007 yil iyun oyining o'rtalarida, AQShning qo'shimcha 28 ming qo'shinini to'liq jalb qilish bilan, qo'zg'olonga qarshi yirik harakatlar to'liq boshlanishi mumkin edi. Phantom Thunder operatsiyasi 16 iyun kuni butun Iroq bo'ylab boshlandi, Diyala va Al-Anbar gubernatorliklari va janubiy Bog'dod kamarlaridagi isyonchilarga qarshi bir qancha bo'ysunuvchi operatsiyalar o'tkazildi.[56][57] Qo'shimcha kuchlanish qo'shinlari ham ishtirok etdi Phantom Strike operatsiyasi va Fantom Feniks operatsiyasi nomi bilan nomlangan III "Fantom" korpusi 2007 yil davomida AQShning Iroqdagi asosiy bo'linmasi bo'lgan.

Qarshi isyon strategiyasi

Qarshi qo'zg'olon strategiyasining muvaffaqiyati etnik-mazhablararo zo'ravonliklarning kamayishi bilan o'lchanadi.

Iroqdagi qarshi qo'zg'olon strategiyasi general Petreus qo'mondonligi ostida 2007 yildagi qo'shinlarning ko'tarilishi boshlangandan beri sezilarli darajada o'zgardi.[58] Yangi yondashuv Iroq xalqi ko'ngli va ongini o'zaro munosabatlarni o'rnatish, tinchlik qurbonlarining oldini olish va ba'zi sobiq dushmanlari bilan murosaga kelish va hatto yollash orqali olishga harakat qildi.[59] Yangi strategiya qo'zg'olonchilarni o'ldirishdan ko'ra aholini himoya qilishga qaratilganligi sababli aholiga yo'naltirilgan edi.[60] Ushbu strategiyani amalga oshirishda Petreus buyruq berishda to'plagan tajribasidan foydalangan Mosuldagi 101-desant diviziyasi 2003 yilda. Shuningdek, u ushbu fikrlarni 3-24 dala qo'llanmasida keng bayon qildi: qarshi kurash,[61] u Qo'mondonlik general sifatida xizmat qilgan paytida yozishda yordam bergan Leavenworth Fort, Kanzas va AQSh armiyasining birlashgan qurol markazi (CAC) u erda joylashgan.

COIN strategiyasi har bir iroqlikni potentsial dushman sifatida ko'rish o'rniga, aloqalarni o'rnatish va Iroqliklardan Al-Qoida bilan hamkorlik qilish va AQSh kuchlari uchun dushmanlar sonini minimallashtirishga qaratilgan. Jamiyat tarkibida qo'shinlarning uzoq muddatli ishtirokini ta'minlash xavfsizlikni yaxshilaydi va mahalliy aholi bilan AQSh harbiy kuchlari o'rtasida munosabatlar va ishonchni rivojlantirishga imkon beradi degan fikr edi. Fuqarolarning qurbonlari ehtiyotkorlik bilan o'lchangan kuch ishlatish bilan minimallashtiriladi. Bu kam bombardimon qilish va yong'inni kuchsizlantirishni anglatadi, va ko'proq askarlar o'zlarini tutib, hatto ba'zida bu jarayonda ko'proq xavf tug'diradi.[62]

Hamkorlikka erishishning yana bir usuli bu mahalliy aholiga, shu jumladan sobiq qo'zg'olonchilarga mahalliy xavfsizlik kuchlari sifatida ishlash uchun pul to'lashdir. Sobiq sunniy isyonchilar AQSh armiyasi tomonidan Al-Qoida bilan hamkorlikni to'xtatish va ularga qarshi kurashni boshlash uchun yollangan.[63]

Ushbu strategiyani amalga oshirish uchun qo'shinlar Bag'dod hududida to'plangan edi (o'sha paytda Bag'dod Iroqdagi barcha zo'ravonliklarning 50 foizini tashkil qilgan).[64] O'tmishda koalitsiya kuchlari katta yashash bilan o'zlarini iroqliklardan ajratib qo'yishgan oldinga ishlaydigan bazalar aholi punktlaridan uzoqda,[65] keskin ko'tarilish paytida qo'shinlar Iroqliklar orasida yashab, Bag'dodning o'zida joylashgan va Iroq xavfsizlik kuchlari bilan birgalikda qo'shma xavfsizlik stantsiyalarida (JSS) ish olib borishgan.[66] Koalitsiya bo'linmalari ma'lum bir hududga doimiy ravishda biriktirilgan bo'lib, ular mahalliy Iroq aholisi va xavfsizlik kuchlari bilan uzoq muddatli aloqalarni o'rnatishi mumkin edi.[60]

Biroq, AQSh armiyasining polkovnigi Devid X. Xekvort (ret.) Kabi ishg'olga qarshi bo'lganlar, u Britaniya askarlari amerikaliklarga qaraganda millat qurishda yaxshiroq deb o'ylaysizmi degan savolga "Ular mahalliy xalqni saf tortib olishda juda yaxshi edilar" Kanalizatsiyani boshqarish va elektrni yoqish kabi ishni bajaring, bizdan ancha yaxshi - biz og'ir odammiz, Iroqda esa biz odamlar va madaniyatni tushunmaymiz, shu sababli biz mahalliy aholini darhol politsiya va harbiy ishlarga jalb qilmadik. ularni o'z millatlarini qurish va barqarorlashtirishga majbur qilish. "

AQShning bostirib kirishidan oldin 2003 yilda Iroqdan xabar olib borgan CNN urushi muxbiri Maykl Var, "Iroqda uzoq muddatli qo'shin borligi to'g'risida juda ko'p turli xil reaktsiyalar bo'ladi" degan ishg'olga nisbatan xuddi shunday xira qarashda edi, ammo u qo'shib qo'ydi: "bu nimani anglatadi va bunga loyiq bo'ladimi?" Janob Uar bu kasb "AQShga nisbatan ko'proq g'azabni kuchaytirishi" mumkinligini ta'kidladi.

Natijalar

Shuningdek qarang: Kongressga Iroqdagi vaziyat to'g'risida hisobot

Xavfsizlik holati

Dushmanlik va dushmanliksiz o'limlar.

Birinchi bir necha oy ichida zo'ravonlik kuchaygan.[67][68][69] Biroq, 2007 yil kuziga kelib, xavfsizlik holati sezilarli darajada yaxshilandi.[70] AQSh harbiylarining o'limi 2007 yil may oyida 126 martalik eng yuqori ko'rsatkichdan 23 dekabrgacha tushdi va keskin ko'tarilgandan keyingi davrda (2008 yil iyunidan 2011 yil iyunigacha) o'rtacha oylik 11 dan kam bo'lgan. 2007 yil may oyida 1700 dan ziyod Iroq fuqarosi o'ldirilgan. , dekabrda taxminan 500 ga nisbatan. O'rtacha 2008 yil iyunidan 2011 yil iyunigacha 200 ga yaqin edi.[71]

Hujumning muhim tendentsiyalari.

2007 yil 10 sentyabrda, Devid Petreus uning qismini etkazib berdi Kongressga Iroqdagi vaziyat to'g'risida hisobot. U "to'lqinning harbiy maqsadlari katta darajada bajarilmoqda" degan xulosaga keldi. U so'nggi paytlarda xavfsizlik bilan bog'liq hodisalarning izchil pasayib ketishini aytib o'tdi va buni so'nggi zarbalar bilan izohladi Iroqdagi Al-Qoida kuchlanish paytida. Uning qo'shimcha qilishicha, "biz shia militsiya ekstremistlarini ham buzdik, Eron tomonidan qo'llab-quvvatlanadigan" Maxsus guruhlar "ning rahbari va boshqa ko'plab rahbarlarini qo'lga kiritdik, shuningdek Livanning" Hizbulloh "guruhining yuqori martabali xodimi va Eronning Iroqdagi faoliyatini qo'llab-quvvatladik". Uning ta'kidlashicha, koalitsiya va Iroq operatsiyalari mamlakatda etnik-mazhablararo zo'ravonlikni keskin kamaytirgan, ammo yutuqlar hatto teng emasligini ta'kidlagan. He recommended a gradual drawdown of US forces in Iraq with a goal of reaching pre-surge troop levels by July 2008 and stated that further withdraws would be "premature".[72]

Sectarian violence.

While Petraeus credited the surge for the decrease in violence, the decrease also closely corresponded with a cease-fire order given by Iraqi political leader Muqtada as-Sadr on August 29, 2007. Al-Sadr's order, to stand down for six months, was distributed to his loyalists following the deaths of more than 50 Shia Muslim pilgrims during fighting in Karbala the day earlier.[73]

Maykl E. O'Hanlon and Jason H. Campbell of the Brukings instituti stated on December 22, 2007 that Iraq's security environment had reached its best levels since early 2004 and credited Petraeus' strategy for the improvement.[74] CNN stated that month that the monthly death rate for US troops in Iraq had hit its second lowest point during the entire course of the war. Military representatives attributed the successful reduction of violence and casualties directly to the troop surge. At the same time, the Iraqi Ministry of Interior reported similar reductions for civilian deaths.[75]

Iraqi Security Force deaths.[iqtibos kerak ]

However, on September 6, 2007, a report by an independent military commission headed by General James Jones found that the decrease in violence may have been due to areas being overrun by either Shias or Sunnis.[76] In addition, in August 2007, the International Organization for Migration and the Iraqi Red Crescent Organization indicated that more Iraqis had fled since the troop increase.[77]

On February 16, 2008, Iraqi Defense Minister Abdel Qader Jassim Mohammed told reporters that the surge was "working very well" and that Iraq has a "pressing" need for troops to stay to secure Iraqi borders.[78] He stated that "Results for 2007 prove that – Baghdad is good now".[78]

2008 yil iyun oyida AQSh Mudofaa vazirligi reported that "the security, political and economic trends in Iraq continue to be positive; however, they remain fragile, reversible and uneven."[79]

US troop fatalities in Iraq by month, the orange and blue months being post-troop surge.

In the month of July, 2008, US forces lost only 13 soldiers, the lowest number of casualties sustained by US troops in one month since the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Also, a report by the US embassy in Baghdad, given to Congress in May 2008, and published July 1, stated that the Iraqi government had met 15 of the 18 political benchmarks set out for them.[80]

The Surge allowed troops to have more control over urban areas previously held by insurgents allowing for an overall slowdown of the fighting.

Political system and economy

Qo'shimcha ma'lumotlar: Iroqni olib chiqish mezonlari

AQSh Davlatning hisobdorligi idorasi (GAO) reported on September 2, 2007 that the Iroq hukumati had only met three of the eighteen benchmarks created by the AQSh Kongressi 2006 yil iyun oyida.[81] Two other government reports measuring progress in Iraq, a National Intelligence Estimate va an independent commission assessment by retired general Jeyms L. Jons, were published for Kongress 2007 yilning kuzida.[82] USA Today compared the findings.[82] The New York Times also did so.[83] Boshqa GAO report stated that the Iroq hukumati did not meet 11 of the 18 benchmark measures as of August 30, 2007.[84] On September 14, a oq uy survey reported "satisfactory" progress on 9 of the 18 benchmarks.[85]

Lionel Beehner ning partiyasiz Tashqi aloqalar kengashi has called the benchmarks "vague because the metrics to measure them are imprecise."[86] The New York Times stated on May 13 that "Nobody in Washington seems to agree on what progress actually means – or how, precisely, it might be measured."[87] Umumiy Devid Petreus, komandiri Iroqdagi ko'p millatli kuch, has stated that his recommendations on troop strength are not dependent on the Iraqi government's ability to meet the benchmarks.[88]

On December 2, 2007, the Sunni Arab Iroq kelishuv fronti called for the end to their boycott of the Iraq Parliament.[89] On January 20, 2008, Iraq's parliament passed a law to let members of the Ba'ath party return to public life, a major US congressional benchmark for the success of Iraqi government.[90] O'sha oy Xalqaro valyuta fondi (IMF) stated that Iraq's economy would expand significantly from the previous year's lows. Mohsin Khan, the IMF's director for the Middle East, said Iraqi oil production was forecast to climb by 200,000 barrels per day (32,000 m3/d) to 2.2 million barrels per day (350,000 m3/d) in 2008. Also reported by the IMF was that Iraq's gross domestic product growth is expected to jump significantly up to over 7 percent, in 2008 and 2009, from just 1.3 percent in 2007[91]

On December 22, 2007, Maykl E. O'Hanlon and Jason H. Campbell of the Brukings instituti called Iraq's economy and political system to be "only marginally better than a year ago".[74] The envoy to Iraq reported on the dialogue between the Sunni and Shia communities and praised the government's work in late 2007. The envoy, Staffan de Mistura, said he would present a positive picture of progress in Iraq in a report to the UN Security Council despite earlier serious misgivings. He said, "At the beginning of [2007]... we were genuinely concerned by the lack of progress on national dialogue, today that has substantially changed. It has changed our mind from being worried or from being pessimistic." The UN report would, he said, "compliment" Iraq's government on its work at fostering reconciliation.[92]

2008 yil yanvar oyida, Tashqi aloqalar kengashi o'rtoq Maykl E. O'Hanlon stated that "Overall, Iraq's political system probably merits a grade of roughly C for its performance over the last 12 months."[93] He also stated that "the pace of progress is finally picking up."[93]

On February 13, 2008, the Iraqi parliament passed three pieces of legislation that were considered contentious. The three measures were an amnesty law, a law that defines the scope of provincial powers, and the budget for 2008. The amnesty law was one of the benchmarks set by Bush. The provincial powers law includes a provision for provincial elections, another key benchmark. And the budget should pave the way for the creation of up to 700,000 new jobs for Iraqis.[94]

USA Today stated on February 17, 2008 that US Ambassador to Iraq Rayan Kroker "may be hard-pressed to argue that Iraqis have met political benchmarks Congress sought" and contrasted the political progress with the recent military progress.[93]

Natijalarning talqini

Whether the surge led to the improvement in Iraqi security, or other factors caused it, is disputed by some. Tashqi aloqalar kengashi o'rtoq Nuh Feldman has remarked that:

These questions can be stated with some precision. They begin with the issue of how to interpret the comparative reduction in violence since the surge of United States troops began nearly a year ago. Does the decrease show that more troops on the ground were necessary to impose effective control over territory and persuade insurgents to back down? Or is the reduced violence a sign instead that the prospect of imminent United States withdrawal has made Iraqis more hesitant to foment a civil war from which the United States will not save them? Whatever the answer, the practical consequences are huge: either we keep troop levels relatively stable, drawing down slowly while we consolidate increasing stability, or we accelerate withdrawal to underscore our seriousness about leaving.[95]

Qo'llab-quvvatlash

Both critics of the surge and independent news services have stated that the an'anaviy donolik ichida United States media is that the surge 'worked'.[96][97][98][99] Many Democratic political leaders have acknowledged the same.[5]

In June 2008, correspondents on Wolf Blitzer bilan kech nashr stated that "few would argue about the success of the so-called surge in Iraq".[100] Vaqt has stated that "the surge is a fragile and limited success, an operation that has helped stabilize the capital and its surroundings."[1] The New York Times has stated that "The surge, clearly, has worked, at least for now. ... The result, now visible in the streets, is a calm unlike any the country has seen since the American invasion".[101]

Piter Mansur, General Petreus 's executive officer and author of the Baghdad at Sunrise: A Brigade Commander's War in Iraq, stated in an August 2008 Washington Post op-ed that "The Iraq war is not over, but our war effort is on a firmer foundation... The surge has created the space and time for the competition for power and resources in Iraq to play out in the political realm, with words instead of bombs."[102] Blogger and independent reporter Maykl Yon, who has been embedded with the troops in Iraq for years, had suggested the surge strategy before it was formalized. Uning kitobida, Moment of Truth in Iraq, Yon argued that Petraeus had turned defeat into victory in Iraq and that the surge had succeeded. In July 2008, Yon stated in a Nyu-York Daily News editorial that "'The war in Iraq is over ... the Iraqi people won."[103]

Tarixchi Larri Shvaykart uning kitobida bahslashdi America's Victories: Why the U.S. Wins Wars, that the surge's success, in part, came from the incredible casualties the US military inflicted on al-Qaeda in Iraq and on the "insurgents" from 2003 to 2006---some 40,000 killed, about 200,000 wounded, 20,000 captured, and nearly 10,000 deserted. He has stated that those levels of attrition on an enemy the estimated size of al-Qaeda were substantial and deeply damaging, not only to the terrorists' efforts in Iraq, but had the effect of depleting them worldwide. Moreover, Schweikart argued, virtually all estimates of enemy casualties were severely under-counted (as are all numbers of guerilla casualties) given the inability to identify bodies which were completely annihilated by explosives or to count carcasses dragged away, as well as how many would die later after attempted medical treatment by other Al Queda sympathizers.

Senator John McCain argued on air September 11, 2014 at CNN @THISHOUR WITH BERMAN AND MICHAELA that the surge was a victory and reached its goal of providing substantial security and stability in resolving government agendas between various groups within Iraq. That it was more less an aftermath of pulling troops out after the "surge" that resulted in increase terrorist operations and the presence of ISIS currently in Iraq. "We had it won, thanks to the surge. It was won. The victory was there. All we needed was a force behind to provide support, not to engage in combat, but to supply support, logistics, intelligence. And, by the way, the Korean war we left troops behind; Bosnia, we left troops behind, not to fight, but be for a stabilizing force."[104]

Qarama-qarshilik

Jurnalist Patrik Kokbern has stated that the reduction in violence was a direct result of etnik tozalash by the Shia-led Iraqi government and Shia militias against Sunnis.[105] He has stated that "the battle for Baghdad in 2006-07 was won by the Shia, who now control three-quarters of the capital. These demographic changes appear permanent; Sunnis who try to get their houses back face assassination."[105] UCLA professor of geography Jon Agnew released a study in mid-September 2008 stating that violence has declined in Baghdad "because of intercommunal violence that reached a climax as the surge was beginning," said that "By the launch of the surge, many of the targets of conflict had either been killed or fled the country, and they turned off the lights when they left."[106]

Vashington Post muxbir Bob Vudvord has interviewed US government sources according to whom the US "surge" was not the primary reason for the drop in violence in 2007–2008. Instead, according to his view, the reduction of violence was due to new covert techniques by US military and intelligence officials to find, target and kill insurgents.[96]

Some, such as then Palata spikeri Nensi Pelosi, have credited the Eron hukumati for all or part of the reduction in violence. Pelosi stated in May 2008 that "some of the success of the surge is that the goodwill of the Iranians-they decided in Basra when the fighting would end, they negotiated that cessation of hostilities-the Iranians."[107] Cockburn has also stated that the Iranians played the major role.[105]

Other commentators have pointed to the Sunniy uyg'onish (which started in 2005) as the most important reason for the decline in Iraqi violence. Devid Kilkulen, General Petraeus's qarshi qo'zg'olon and troop surge adviser, believes that "the tribal revolt was arguably the most significant change in the Iraqi operating environment in several years."[108]

One article mentions that "Currently, the dominant U.S presence in Iraq allows the rest of the world to avoid responsibility for stability in and around Iraq even as everyone realizes the stakes involved".[109] In addition "A plan to draw down U.S forces would therefore contribute to the success of a larger diplomatic strategy, prompting Middle Eastern states, European governments, and the UN to be more constructive and proactive in working to salvage stability in the Persian Gulf"[109]

On April 20, 2007, four months after the surge went into effect, Senator Garri Rid made a statement on the floor of the AQSh Senati that the US had already lost the war in Iraq and that the surge would accomplish nothing, stating "I believe myself that the secretary of state, secretary of defense and – you have to make your own decisions as to what the president knows – (know) this war is lost and the surge is not accomplishing anything as indicated by the extreme violence in Iraq yesterday."[110]

Congressional Democrats believed military progress has been made in Iraq but that the political progress that President Bush gave as the primary reason for the surge has not occurred.[111] They continued to call for a withdrawal of American troops.[111] 2008 yil fevral oyida, Palata spikeri Nensi Pelosi told reporters that "God knows, anytime our military men and women go into a military exercise, we want them to succeed, and they did. The politics did not follow. So they can paint whatever picture they want on it; the goal has not been accomplished. The tragedies, the casualties continue. We are going in the wrong direction in Iraq."[111] Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton, having already voted to support Petraeus, now stated on Fox News yakshanba that month that "the so-called surge was designed to give the Iraqi government the space and time to make the tough decisions that only the Iraqis can make for themselves. ... And I think that putting forward a very clear objective of beginning to withdraw our troops is the best way to get the Iraqis to take responsibility."[111]

Jamoatchilik fikri

An early February 2008 Gallup so'rovi found that 43% of Americans thought the troop increase is "making the situation there better".[111] A CNN poll conducted during the same period found that 52% think that US forces are "making progress in improving conditions in Iraq and bringing an end to the violence in that country" while 45% disagree.[112] A poll released by the Pew tadqiqot markazi on the same day found that 48% of those polled believed the war to be going well, up from 30% a year earlier, with a similar number supporting keeping troops in Iraq "until the situation has stabilized". A majority still believed the war to be a wrong decision in the first place.[113] A commentary on the poll by Milliy jamoat radiosi called some of its results a "sign that the troop surge is being seen as successful."[114] Nonetheless, an Fikrlarni o'rganish korporatsiyasi poll conducted in June 2008 found that 68% of Americans were opposed to the war in Iraq and that 64% of Americans want to see the next President remove most troops from Iraq within a few months of taking office.[115] A Summer 2008 CBS News poll found that 46% think it improved the situation in Iraq while 11% think it made it worse and 32% think it had no impact.[112]

A March 2008 poll of Iraq found that 42% of Iraqis call attacks on US forces acceptable and that only 4% of Iraqis believe that US forces are responsible for the drop in violence.[116] The poll also found that 61% believed that the presence of US troops in Iraq was actually worsening the security situation.[116] In July 2008, Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki and Iraqi National security advisor Muwaffaq Al-Rubaie both sought a timetable for the withdrawal of foreign troops.[117]

A CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll conducted September 1–2, 2010 revisited this question "As you may know, the US. sent 20,000 combat troops to Iraq in 2007 in what was called a surge. Based on what you have read or heard, do you think that surge of U.S. troops to Iraq was a success or a failure?" 60% responded as success, 33% failure and 7% depends or unsure.[118]

Shuningdek qarang

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