Shotlandiya mustaqilligi bo'yicha ikkinchi referendum - Proposed second Scottish independence referendum

2014 yil sentyabr oyida bo'lib o'tgan mustaqillik referendumi uchun qarang 2014 yil Shotlandiya mustaqilligi bo'yicha referendum.
Shotlandiya
Buyuk Britaniyaning Qirollik gerbi (Shotlandiyada hukumat) .svg
Ushbu maqola bir qator qismidir
siyosati va hukumati
Shotlandiya
Flag of Scotland.svg Shotlandiya portali

Mustaqillik tarafdorlari mitingi Glazgo, 2019

The Shotlandiya hukumati Shotlandiyadan mustaqillik bo'yicha ikkinchi referendum o'tkazishni taklif qildi Birlashgan Qirollik (Buyuk Britaniya). Birinchisi mustaqillik bo'yicha referendum 2014 yil sentyabr oyida bo'lib o'tdi, 55% ovoz bilan mustaqillikka "Yo'q". O'sha referendum oldidan Shotlandiya hukumati o'zining oq qog'ozida mustaqillikka taklif qilgan "Ha" ga ovoz berish "avlod uchun bir marta boshqa yo'ldan yurish va millatimiz uchun yangi va yaxshiroq yo'nalishni tanlash imkoniyati" ekanligini ta'kidladi.[1]

Oldinda 2016 yil Shotlandiya parlamentiga saylov, mustaqillik tarafdori Shotlandiya milliy partiyasi (SNP) agar 2014 yilgi referendumdan keyin vaziyat jiddiy o'zgargan bo'lsa, ikkinchi mustaqillik uchun referendum o'tkazilishi kerakligini aytdi va ulardan birini Buyuk Britaniyaning Buyuk Britaniyani tark etishini ko'rsatdi. Yevropa Ittifoqi ("Brexit ").[2] SNP 2016 yilgi saylovlardan so'ng ozchilik hukumatini tuzdi,[3] va "tark etish" tomoni Shotlandiyadagi 62 foiz ovoz bilan Brexitga qarshi bo'lishiga qaramay, 2016 yil iyun oyida Buyuk Britaniyaning Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zoligi bo'yicha referendumda g'olib chiqdi.[4]

Birinchi vazir Nikola Sturgeon ostida 30-bo'lim buyrug'ini izlash uchun Shotlandiya parlamenti tomonidan ma'qullandi Shotlandiya qonuni 1998 yil "Buyuk Britaniyaning Brexit bo'yicha kelishuv shakli aniq bo'lganda" mustaqillik referendumini o'tkazish.[5][6] Yo'q Bosh Vazir Buyuk Britaniyaning 30-bo'limiga binoan boshqa mustaqillik referendumi uchun hokimiyatning o'tishini ma'qulladi,[7][8][9][10] va hozirgi Bosh vazir Boris Jonson lavozimida bo'lganida unga sanktsiya bermasligini aytdi.[11]

Tarix

2014 yil Shotlandiya mustaqilligi bo'yicha referendum

Asosiy maqola: 2014 yil Shotlandiya mustaqilligi bo'yicha referendum
2014 yil Shotlandiya mustaqilligi bo'yicha referendumning kengash hududi natijalari:
  Ha
  Yo'q

Shotlandiya mustaqilligi to'g'risidagi 2014 yil 18 sentyabrda o'tkazilgan referendumda Shotlandiya Buyuk Britaniyaning (Buyuk Britaniyaning) tarkibida qolishga ovoz berdi, Shotlandiyaning mustaqil mamlakat bo'lish taklifiga qarshi 55 foiz ovoz berildi va 45 foiz ovoz berildi. Shotlandiyaning Evropa Ittifoqiga (Evropa Ittifoqi) a'zoligiga oid noaniqlik referendumda ovoz berish arafasida edi.[12] Buyuk Britaniya hukumati va ba'zi asosiy siyosiy partiyalar Buyuk Britaniyada qolish Shotlandiyaning Evropa Ittifoqi tarkibida qolishi uchun yagona yo'l ekanligini ta'kidladilar.[13][14] Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zolik bo'yicha Buyuk Britaniyada o'tkaziladigan referendum allaqachon e'lon qilingan edi va bu mustaqillik muhokamasida muhokama mavzusi edi.[15]

Bahsda iqtisodiyot kabi boshqa masalalar katta rol o'ynadi. Kabi moliyaviy guruhlar Shotlandiya Qirollik banki va Lloyds Banking Group, Evropa qonuni tufayli banklarning ro'yxatdan o'tgan idorasi bilan bir xil a'zo davlatda bosh idoralari bo'lishi kerakligi to'g'risidagi Evropa qonuni va o'zlarining ro'yxatdan o'tgan ofislarini Londonga ko'chirishni o'ylayotgani haqida xabar berilgan edi. ular o'zlarining asosiy faoliyatlarini shu erda o'tkazadilar - bu Shotlandiya mustaqilligi bo'lgan taqdirda Buyuk Britaniyaning qolgan qismi bo'ladi.[16][17]

Shotlandiya hukumatining mustaqillik referendumi to'g'risidagi rasmiy nashrida "Shotlandiya amaldagi hukumatining fikriga ko'ra, referendum - bu avlod uchun bir marta beriladigan imkoniyat",[18] SNPning o'sha paytdagi rahbari ovoz berishidan bir necha kun oldin yana bir fikr takrorlandi, Aleks Salmond bo'lib o'tdi, o'tish davri referendumlari o'rtasidagi o'n sakkiz yillik farq 1979 va 1997 avlodlar imkoniyatining misoli sifatida.[19] Uch oy o'tgach, Salmond o'z pozitsiyasini o'zgartirib, Buyuk Britaniyaning Evropa Ittifoqidagi referendumini omil sifatida ta'kidladi.[20] Buyuk Britaniya hukumati, shuningdek, mustaqillik referendumini avlodda bir marta bo'ladigan shaxs sifatida ko'rsatgan edi.[21]

Shotlandiyaning mustaqil mamlakat bo'lish taklifi 2014 yilda qabul qilingan bo'lsa-da, referendum natijasida Shotlandiya parlamenti qo'shimcha vakolatlarga ega bo'ldi. Shotlandiya qonuni 2016 yil Bu soliqqa tortish va ijtimoiy ta'minotning ba'zi jihatlari kabi vakolatlarni oshirdi.[22]

2015

2015 yil Birlashgan Qirollikning umumiy saylovlari

Asosiy maqola: Shotlandiyadagi 2015 yilgi Birlashgan Qirollikning umumiy saylovlari
2015 yilgi Birlashgan Qirollikning umumiy saylovlari natijalari

The 2015 yil Buyuk Britaniyadagi umumiy saylov mustaqillik referendumi o'tkazilgandan deyarli sakkiz oy o'tgach, 7 may kuni bo'lib o'tdi. O'zlarining manifestlarida SNP quyidagilarga javoban quyidagilarni aytdi Konservatorlar "manifestda agar u saylansa, 2017 yil oxirigacha Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zolik bo'yicha referendum o'tkazilishini va'da qilmoqda:[23]

Evropa Ittifoqi mukammallikdan yiroq, ammo, bizning fikrimizcha, Shotlandiyaning a'zolari bo'lib qolishimiz, institutlar bilan iloji boricha to'liq aloqada bo'lishimiz va islohotlarni ichimizdan muhokama qilishimiz juda ko'p. Biz Buyuk Britaniyaning Evropa Ittifoqidan chiqishiga qarshi chiqamiz va kelgusi har qanday referendumda ikki kishilik ko'pchilik talabi bo'lishi kerakligini taklif qilamiz. Buyuk Britaniyaning to'rtta davlatining har biri Buyuk Britaniya umuman Evropa Ittifoqini tark etishidan oldin chiqib ketish uchun ovoz berishi kerak edi.

SNP milliy ovozlarning 50 foizini qo'lga kiritgan misli ko'rilmagan ko'chkilarda kurash olib borgan 59 Shotlandiya o'rindiqlaridan 56 tasini qo'lga kiritdi va Shotlandiyada atigi uchta ittifoqchi deputatni qoldirdi; Mehnat o'shandan beri Shotlandiyada eng yomon natijasini ko'rdi 1918, Liberal-demokratlar o'shandan beri eng past darajaga tushdi 1970 va Konservatorlar O'shandan beri Shotlandiyada eng past ovoz ulushini oldi 1865.

Buyuk Britaniya bo'ylab Konservatorlar boshchiligidagi Devid Kemeron kutilmagan umumiy ko'pchilikni qo'lga kiritdi, 1992 yildan beri birinchi va g'alabasidan keyin birinchi bo'lib o'tdi Evropa Ittifoqining 2015 yilgi referendum to'g'risidagi qonuni a. Buyuk Britaniyada Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zolik bo'yicha milliy referendumni o'tkazish to'g'risida qonun chiqargan, u a Buyuk Britaniyaning Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zoligini qayta ko'rib chiqish.

2016

2016 yil Shotlandiya parlamentiga saylov

Asosiy maqola: 2016 yil Shotlandiya parlamentiga saylov
2016 yil Shotlandiya parlamenti saylovlari natijalari

Shotlandiya parlamentiga saylovlar 2016 yil 5 may kuni, Evropa Ittifoqi referendumini o'tkazilishidan etti hafta oldin bo'lib o'tdi. Ularning manifestida 2016 yil Shotlandiyadagi saylovlar, SNP ikkinchi mustaqillik referendumini o'tkazishni talab qiladigan shartlarni belgilab qo'ydi:[24]

SNP 2016 yilgi saylovda qayta saylandi va 129 o'rinli palatada 63 o'rinni egalladi, ammo natijada ular endi ko'pchilik ovozni qo'lga kiritmaydilar.[25] Mustaqillik tarafdori Shotlandiya Yashillar partiyasi 6 o'ringa ega bo'ldi,[25] ya'ni mustaqillikni qo'llab-quvvatlovchi MSPlar ko'pchilikni saqlab qolishdi.[26]

The Yashil manifestda, ikkinchi partiyaviy referendum "partiyalarning siyosiy ustunligini hisoblash" natijasida emas, balki jamoatchilik tomonidan talab qilingan taqdirda o'tkazilishi kerakligi belgilab qo'yilgan edi. Partiya, referendumni qo'llab-quvvatlashni afzal ko'rgan uslubi ommaviy murojaat bilan ekanligini ta'kidladi, ammo ularning manifestida qancha imzo chekuvchilarni qo'llab-quvvatlashi kerakligi aniqlanmagan bo'lsa ham:[27]

2016 yil Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zolik bo'yicha referendum

Asosiy maqola: 2016 yil Buyuk Britaniya Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zolik bo'yicha referendum
Shotlandiyadagi har bir kengash hududida qolish uchun ko'pchilik ovozini qaytarib berdi EI, Buyuk Britaniyaning boshqa qismlaridan farqli o'laroq Buyuk Britaniya ovoz berishni tark etadi.
  Qolmoq

2016 yil 23 iyunda bo'lib o'tgan Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zolik bo'yicha referendumda butun Buyuk Britaniya bo'yicha saylovchilarning 52% Evropa Ittifoqidan chiqishga ovoz berdi, qolgan 48% ovoz bilan; Angliya va Uelsdagi ko'pchilik Evropa Ittifoqidan chiqish tarafdori edi, aksariyat Shotlandiya (62%), Shimoliy Irlandiya va Gibraltar Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zo bo'lib qolishdi.[28] Shotlandiyadagi barcha o'ttiz ikkita kengash hududlari ko'pchilik tomonidan Buyuk Britaniyaning Evropa Ittifoqi a'zosi bo'lib qolishiga ovoz berdi.

Referendumdan oldin bir qator fikrlarni bildirgan etakchi shaxslar Shotlandiya mustaqilligi Agar Buyuk Britaniya umuman Evropa Ittifoqidan chiqish uchun ovoz bergan bo'lsa, lekin Shotlandiya umuman qolish uchun ovoz bergan bo'lsa, ikkinchi mustaqillik referendumi o'tkazilishi mumkin.[29][30] Sobiq mehnat Shotlandiyaning birinchi vaziri Genri Maklish bunday sharoitda Shotlandiya mustaqilligini qo'llab-quvvatlashini ta'kidladi.[31]

Uchun hisobot Evropa parlamenti Birlashgan Qirollikning Evropa Ittifoqidan chiqib ketishiga devolutsiyaga ta'siri to'g'risida "hozirda Shotlandiya qonuniy yo'l bilan mustaqil bo'lish uchun u [Evropa] Ittifoqiga qo'shilishi mumkin" degan kelishuvga erishilgan ko'rinadi, degan savol ilgari surilgan edi. 2014 yilgi referendum.[32]

Natijaga javoban, 2016 yil 24-iyun kuni Shotlandiya hukumati rasmiylar mustaqillik bo'yicha ikkinchi referendumni rejalashtirishni boshlashlarini aytdi.[33][34] Shotlandiyaning birinchi vaziri Nikola Sturgeon "Shotlandiya aholisi o'z kelajagini Evropa Ittifoqining bir qismi deb bilishi aniq" va Shotlandiya Evropa Ittifoqida qolish uchun "kuchli, shubhasiz" ovoz bilan "qat'iyatli gapirgan".[35] Shturjonning ta'kidlashicha, Shotlandiyaning "uning irodasiga qarshi" Evropa Ittifoqidan chiqarilishi "demokratik yo'l bilan qabul qilinishi mumkin emas".[33][36]

Shotlandiya kotibi Devid Mundell 2016 yil 26 iyunda "agar Shotlandiya aholisi oxir-oqibat boshqa [mustaqillik] referendumini o'tkazishni xohlasa, u bo'ladi”, deb aytdi va "Boshqa referendum bo'lishi mumkinmi? Bu savolga javob" ha "deb javob berdi. Yana bir referendum bo'lib o'tadimi? Menimcha, bu savolga javob yo'q. "[37]

2016 yil 13 oktyabrda Sturgeon Mustaqillik to'g'risidagi referendum to'g'risidagi qonun loyihasi kelasi hafta maslahatlashuv uchun nashr etilishini ma'lum qildi.[38]

2017 yil fevral oyida Shotlandiya parlamenti Buyuk Britaniyaning Evropa Ittifoqidan chiqishiga qarshi chiqish va qarshi chiqish uchun 90 ga 34 ga ovoz berdi 50-moddaga amal qilish majburiy bo'lmagan ovozda.[39]

2017

Birinchi vazir Sturgeon 13 mart kuni e'lon qildi

2017 yil 13 martda Nikola Sturgeon Buyuk Britaniya hukumati bilan muzokaralar o'tkazish uchun Shotlandiya parlamentining roziligini olishga intilishini ma'lum qildi 30-bo'lim buyurtma mustaqillik uchun qonuniy majburiy ikkinchi referendumni o'tkazish.[5]

2017 yil 16 mart kuni, rejalashtirilgan munozaralar oldidan Tereza Mey bunga javoban Shotlandiyaning mustaqilligi bo'yicha ikkinchi referendum uchun "hozir vaqt emas" degan xabarni tarqatdi, chunki Shotlandiya aholisi nima uchun ovoz berishi aniq emas edi. uchun.[7] Keyinchalik Rut Devidson Edinburgdagi matbuot anjumanida paydo bo'ldi va "biz buni amalga oshirish uchun aniq jamoat va siyosiy rozilik bo'lmaganda sodir bo'lmasligi kerak" degan pozitsiyasini bildirdi.[7]

2017 yil 28 martda Shotlandiya parlamenti S5M-04710 Motion-ga 69-59 ovoz berib, Shotlandiya mustaqilligi bo'yicha ikkinchi referendum o'tkazilishini qo'llab-quvvatladi.[40][41] Harakatning o'tishiga qadar, a Yashil partiya 16 va 17 yoshli yoshlar va Evropa Ittifoqi fuqarolari uchun referendumda ovoz berish imkoniyatini ta'minlashga qaratilgan tuzatishlar xuddi shu marj bilan qabul qilindi.[42]

2017 yil iyun oyida Birlashgan Qirollikning umumiy saylovlari

2017 yil Buyuk Britaniyada Shotlandiyada bo'lib o'tgan umumiy saylov natijalari
Asosiy maqola: 2017 yil Shotlandiyada Birlashgan Qirollikning umumiy saylovlari

The 2017 yil Buyuk Britaniyadagi umumiy saylovlar qaytib keldi a osilgan parlament natijada Tereza Meyning Konservatorlar a orqali ozchilik hukumat sifatida qaytib kelish pakt bilan Demokratik ittifoqchilar partiyasi.

SNP Buyuk Britaniyaning uchinchi yirik partiyasi bo'lib qoldi Jamiyat palatasi uning vakili bilan jami 59 nafar Shotlandiya deputatlaridan 35tagacha qisqartirildi. SNP ular egallaganidan 21 ta kam o'ringa ega edi 2015 yilgi umumiy saylovlar va uning Shotlandiyadagi ommaviy ovozi, 2015 yildagi 50% dan 2017 yildagi 37% gacha kamaydi. Mustaqillikka qarshi bo'lgan konservatorlar 1983 yildan buyon Shotlandiyadagi eng yaxshi saylovlarini o'tkazib, 29 foiz ovoz to'plab, o'zlarining o'rindiqlarini avvalgi parlamentdagi saylovlar bilan taqqoslaganda o'n uchtaga ko'paytirdilar.

Saylov kampaniyasi davomida Sturgeondan, agar taklif qilingan referendum mustaqillikka qarshi ovoz bermasa, kelgusida referendum o'tkazish istiqbollari to'g'risida so'rashdi.[43] Bunga javoban u shunday dedi: "Menimcha, biron bir siyosatchi mamlakatga uning kelajagi qanday bo'lishi kerakligini ko'rsatib berishi to'g'ri emas. Menimcha, bu Shotlandiya aholisi uchun tanlov bo'lishi kerak".[43]

Sturgeon: "Shubhasiz, mustaqillik referendumi masalasi ushbu saylov natijasi bo'ldi, ammo menimcha, bu saylov natijasida boshqa omillar ham bor edi".[44] Ikkinchi referendumga qarshi chiqish - sobiq SNP deputati bo'lgan masalalardan biri Angus Robertson va Shotlandiya konservatori rahbar Rut Devidson SNP-ni qo'llab-quvvatlashning kamayishi bilan bog'liq.[45]

SNP mustaqillik uchun ovoz bergan o'rinlardan mahrum bo'ldi. Shimoliy Sharqdagi Glazgo tomonidan qo'lga kiritildi Mehnat asosan Shotlandiyaning ikkita parlament okrugidan iborat bo'lishiga qaramay, mustaqillikni eng katta qo'llab-quvvatlashga ega Glazgo shahar kengashi hududi – Glazgo Merilxill va Springburn va Glazgo Provan.[46]

A Najot saylovdan bir kun oldin o'tkazilgan so'rov natijalariga ko'ra 2014 yilgi mustaqillik saylovchilarining 71 foizi SNPga ovoz berishni rejalashtirgan,[47] 2015 yilda taqqoslanadigan vaqtda SNPda ovoz berishni rejalashtirgan "Ha" saylovchilarining 87 foizidan ancha past.[48] Mustaqillik saylovchilarining katta miqdordagi qo'llab-quvvatlashi Leyboristlar partiyasiga ko'chib o'tdi va partiya mustaqillik tarafdorlari orasida ularning ovoz ulushini 6% dan 21% gacha oshirdi.[47][48] Konservatorlar mustaqillik tarafdorlari orasida kichikroq o'sishga ega bo'lib, 2017 yilda 7% ovoz to'pladilar, 2015 yilda esa 2%.[47][48]

Shuningdek, 2014 yilgi referendumda mustaqillikka qarshi chiqqanlar orasida kelishuv yuzaga keldi. 2015 yilda Leyboristlar partiyasi kasaba uyushma saylovchilari orasida eng yuqori ovoz ulushiga ega bo'lib, 42 foizni tashkil etdi.[48] Bu 2017 yilda 33% gacha tushdi.[47] Konservatorlar ovozlarini 27 foizdan 46 foizgacha oshirib, mustaqillikka qarshi eng yirik partiyaga aylandi.[47][48] Boshqa joylarda 11% 2017 yilda SNP va Liberal-demokratlarni qo'llab-quvvatlagan, 2015 yilda 15% va 10% bo'lgan.[47][48]

2017 yilgi Buyuk Britaniyadagi umumiy saylovlardan so'ng, Sturgeon, Shotlandiya hukumati, Shotlandiya mustaqilligi to'g'risida taklif qilingan ikkinchi referendum to'g'risidagi qonunchilikni Brexit bo'yicha muzokaralar natijalari aniqroq bo'lishiga ishongan holda, kamida 2018 yil kuzigacha qoldirishini e'lon qildi.[49]

2018

2018 yil 25 mayda Shotlandiya milliy partiyasi "o'sish komissiyasi" hisobotini e'lon qildi, unda mustaqil Shotlandiyaning Britaniyaning moliya siyosatiga yaqinligini saqlab qolish iqtisodiyoti batafsil bayon etilgan. Hisobotda mustaqil davlatni barpo etish uchun 450 million funt sterling kerakligi, boshlang'ich byudjet kamomadining yalpi ichki mahsulotning 6 foiz atrofida bo'lishi kerakligi ta'kidlangan. Hisobotda qo'shimcha ravishda, mustaqil Shotlandiya Buyuk Britaniyaning milliy qarzining ulushi to'g'risida muzokaralar olib borishi va bundan foydalanishda davom etishi taklif qilingan Funt sterling kamida o'n yil davomida valyuta sifatida. Shotlandiya ma'lum iqtisodiy maqsadlarga erishilgandan keyingina mustaqil valyutani ko'rib chiqadi. Mustaqillik to'g'risida alohida valyutaga ega emasligiga qaramay, hisobotda Shotlandiyada so'nggi chora sifatida qarz beruvchi sifatida markaziy bank tashkil etilishi aytilgan. O'sish bo'yicha komissiyaning fikriga ko'ra, Shotlandiya o'z aholisining o'sishiga imkon berish uchun ochiq migratsiya siyosatini izlaydi.[50]

Shotlandiya konservativ partiyasi etakchisi Rut Devidson hisobotga quyidagicha javob qaytardi: "Men uchun eng muhim masala - farzandlarimizning yaxshi bilim olishiga ishonch hosil qilish. Birinchi vazir ham buni ustuvor vazifa deb bilar edi - zamon qanday o'zgargan. Qiyin. mustaqillikni muhokama qilish uchun Shotlandiyani quyon teshigidan orqaga qaytarish bizning maktablarimizni qanday yaxshilayotganini ko'rish uchun. " Shotlandiya mehnat partiyasining etakchisi Richard Leonardning ta'kidlashicha, hisobot "mamlakat bo'ylab millionlab odamlarni xafa qiladi, ular faqat birinchi vazirning davlat xizmatlariga e'tiborini qaratishni istaydilar".[51]

2019

2019 yil mart oyida SNP konferentsiyasi O'sish komissiyasining mustaqillik iqtisodiyoti bo'yicha partiya siyosati sifatida tuzatish versiyasini qabul qildi. Ushbu o'zgartirilgan versiya shuni ko'rsatdiki, mustaqil Shotlandiyaning soliq suverenitetini ta'minlash uchun mustaqillikning dastlabki mumkin bo'lgan nuqtasida yangi valyutani yaratish SNP siyosati bo'lib, Pound Sterling Shotlandiya uchun o'tish davri valyutasidir.[52] Birinchi vazir Sturgeon, shuningdek, SNPning yangi iqtisodiy siyosatini to'ldirish uchun mustaqillik uchun ijtimoiy dalillarni ishlab chiqish uchun "Ijtimoiy adolat komissiyasi" tashkil etilishini e'lon qildi.[53]

2019 yil aprel oyida Sturgeon 2021 yil may oyida Shotlandiya parlamenti sessiyasi tugashidan oldin ikkinchi referendumni o'tkazishni taklif qildi.[54] Qonun hujjatlar Parlamentga ushbu institutlar tomonidan o'tkaziladigan har qanday mavzu bo'yicha kelajakdagi har qanday referendumni boshqarish uchun kiritildi. Shotlandiya hukumati konstitutsiyani o'zgartirishga uch tomonlama yondashuv ustida ish olib borgan:

  • Mustaqillik bo'yicha referendum - bu hukumatning Shotlandiyaga mustaqillik to'g'risida fikr bildirishiga imkon berish masalasidir.
  • Partiyalararo muzokaralar o'tkazilib, devolitsiyani o'zgartirish to'g'risidagi kelishuvning har qanday yo'nalishlarini o'rganishga imkon beradi.
  • Shotlandiya hukumati Shotlandiya fuqarolar yig'ini zamonaviy Shotlandiya jamiyati va boshqaruvi duch keladigan eng muhim muammolarni muhokama qilish.[55]

Fuqarolik tashviqot guruhi Shotlandiya uchun ovozlar 2019 yil aprel oyida Shotlandiyada mustaqillik tarafdorlari ko'pchiligini ijtimoiy jalb qilish orqali boshlash uchun boshlangan. Ushbu guruh tomonidan tashkil etilgan Shotlandiya mustaqilligi to'g'risidagi konventsiya partiyalararo va boshlang'ich tashkilotlardan tashkil topgan.[56]

O'tish bilan bir kun Referendumlar (Shotlandiya) to'g'risidagi qonun 2020 yil, Nikola Sturgeon Shotlandiya hukumatining Bosh vazirga qilgan so'rovini rasmiy ravishda e'lon qildi Boris Jonson mustaqillik referendumini o'tkazish uchun qonuniy vakolatni topshirish uchun. Ushbu so'rovda Shotlandiyaning Buyuk Britaniyadagi o'rnini konstitutsiyaviy tarixi belgilab qo'yilgan va Shotlandiya hukumati 30-bo'lim buyrug'i yoki Shotlandiya to'g'risidagi qonunga tuzatishlar mustaqillik referendumlari ustidan hokimiyatni o'tkazishning qoniqarli vositasi deb hisoblaydi.[57] Sturjonning maqsadi referendum 2020 yilda o'tkazilishi edi.[10]

2019 yil Birlashgan Qirollikning umumiy saylovlari

Asosiy maqola: Shotlandiyada 2019 yilgi Birlashgan Qirollikning umumiy saylovlari
Shotlandiyadagi 2019 yilgi Buyuk Britaniyadagi umumiy saylov natijalari

The 2019 yil Buyuk Britaniyada umumiy saylovlar natijada Boris Jonson boshchiligidagi konservatorlar uchun ko'pchilik parlament tashkil etildi. SNP jamoatlar palatasidagi uchinchi o'rinni egallab, oldingi saylovlardan 13 ta o'ringa ega bo'lib, jami 48 ta o'ringa ega bo'ldi. SNP siyosati kelasi yil Shotlandiya mustaqilligi bo'yicha ikkinchi referendumni ham, Brexit bo'yicha ham o'tkazdi. , Tridentni olib tashlash va ish bilan ta'minlash to'g'risidagi qonun, giyohvand moddalar siyosati va migratsiya kabi masalalar bo'yicha taqsimlash.[58]

SNP Shotlandiyada ommaviy ovozlarning 45 foizini yig'di, bu 2017 yilgi Buyuk Britaniyadagi umumiy saylovlardan 8 foiz daromad.[59]

Nikola Sturgeon, SNP etakchisi, saylovlardan so'ng "Shotlandiyaning istamasligi bu saylov natijalaridan yanada aniqroq bo'lishi mumkin emas" Boris Jonson hukumat, u Evropa Ittifoqidan chiqishni istamaydi va kelajak qanday bo'lishidan qat'i nazar, o'z kelajagini o'zi belgilashni xohlaydi. "[60] Bu Shotlandiya konservatorlarining kampaniyasiga javoban, Sturgeonning so'zlariga ko'ra, faqat Shotlandiya mustaqilligi bo'yicha ikkinchi referendumga qarshi chiqishga qaratilgan edi.[60] Jonsonning ikkinchi referendumga qarshi chiqishini hisobga olib, Sturgeon, Shotlandiya hukumati qonuniy harakatlarni amalga oshirib, Shotlandiya parlamenti referendumni tayinlash huquqi.[59][61]

2020

Nikola Sturgeonning referendum o'tkazish haqidagi iltimosi Buyuk Britaniya hukumati tomonidan 2020 yil yanvar oyida rad etilgan.[62] Boris Jonson o'zining rasmiy javobida Sturgeon va Salmond 2014 yilgi referendum "avlodda bir marta" ovoz berishiga va'da berganligini, Shotlandiya va Buyuk Britaniya hukumatlari ushbu ovoz berish natijalarini amalga oshirishga va'da berganligini va uning hukumati deb yozgan. "mustaqillik referendumlarini olib boradigan hokimiyatni o'tkazish to'g'risidagi har qanday talabga rozi bo'lolmaydi".[62]

Shotlandiya parlamenti 2020 yil 29 yanvarda Shotlandiya hukumati tomonidan yangi mustaqillik referendumini tasdiqlash to'g'risidagi taklifni qabul qildi. Ushbu harakat 54 ovozga 64 ta ovoz bilan qabul qilindi.[63] Aynan o'sha kuni parlament parvozni davom ettirishga qaror qildi Evropa bayrog'i Buyuk Britaniyaning Evropa Ittifoqidan chiqqanidan keyin.[64]

2020 yil mart oyida Shotlandiya hukumati referendum tufayli rejalarini to'xtatdi Covid-19 pandemiyasi.[65] Besh oy o'tgach, Sturgeon Shotlandiya hukumati referendum bo'yicha yangi qonun loyihasini rejalashtirayotganini e'lon qildi.[66]

2020 yil davomida mustaqillikni qo'llab-quvvatlash rekord darajaga etdi. 2020 yil oktyabr oyida STV News telekanali uchun o'tkazilgan Ipsos Mori so'rovida Shotlandiyaliklarning 58 foizi mustaqillikni qo'llab-quvvatladilar[67] va agar Shotlandiya mustaqil bo'lishi uchun iqtisodiy vaziyat yuzaga kelsa, Shotlandiyaliklarning 75% ularni qo'llab-quvvatlashini aytdi.[68]

Ma'muriyat

Shotlandiya parlamenti parlamentni o'tkazishi mumkin edi maslahat mustaqillik masalasi bo'yicha Buyuk Britaniya hukumatining tasdiqisiz referendum,[69] a majburiy referendum uchun Buyuk Britaniya hukumatining 30-bo'limi buyrug'i yoki Buyuk Britaniya Parlamenti tomonidan 1998 yil Shotlandiya to'g'risidagi qonunga o'zgartirish kiritilishi kerak bo'lishi mumkin.[70][71][72][73][74] Sewel konvensiyasiga binoan, Shotlandiya hukumati "qonunchilik roziligi to'g'risida" harakatni amalga oshirishi mumkin, bu Buyuk Britaniya parlamentiga Shotlandiya hukumati Buyuk Britaniya hukumati tomonidan qabul qilingan qonuni o'zgartirish yoki o'zgartirish doirasini o'zgartirish zarur deb hisoblaganligini bildiradi. qaysidir ma'noda hukumat vakolatlarini topshirgan.[75]

Referendumlar (Shotlandiya) to'g'risidagi qonun 2020 yil

Asosiy maqola: Referendumlar (Shotlandiya) to'g'risidagi qonun 2020 yil

2019 yil may oyida Shotlandiya hukumati Shotlandiya parlamentiga Referendumlar (Shotlandiya) to'g'risidagi qonun loyihasini taqdim etdi. Ushbu Qonun Shotlandiya hukumati ko'rsatmasiga binoan Shotlandiya qonuni asosida o'tkaziladigan kelajakdagi barcha referendumlarning qonuniy asosini tashkil etadi.[76] Ushbu qonunchilik keyingi mustaqillik referendumining huquqiy asosini tashkil etadi. Amaldagi Shotlandiya hukumati bo'lajak referendum natijalari shubhasiz majburiy bo'lishini ta'minlash uchun 30-bo'lim buyrug'ini yoki 1998 yil Shotlandiya to'g'risidagi qonunga tuzatish kiritishni niyat qilmoqda.

Qonun loyihasi 2019 yil 19 dekabrda Shotlandiya parlamenti tomonidan qabul qilingan[77] va 2020 yil 29 yanvarda qirollik roziligini oldi.

Shotlandiyadagi saylovlar (Franchayza va vakillik) to'g'risidagi qonun 2020 yil

Shotlandiya hukumati Shotlandiya parlamentiga Shotlandiyadagi saylovlar (franchayzing va vakillik) to'g'risidagi qonun loyihasini taqdim etdi.[78] Ushbu Qonunda Shotlandiya parlamenti vakolatiga binoan saylovlarda va referendumlarda kimlar ovoz berish huquqiga ega ekanligi to'g'risida o'zgartirishlar kiritildi. Bunga Shotlandiya parlamenti saylovlari, mahalliy hokimiyat organlariga saylovlar va Shotlandiya parlamenti vakolatiga binoan referendumlar kiradi. Ushbu Qonun Shotlandiyada 16 yoshdan oshgan qonuniy ravishda yashovchi har bir kishiga, millati va fuqaroligidan qat'i nazar, ovoz berish huquqini kengaytiradi va ayrim mahbuslarga qamoqxonada ishlash muddati 12 oydan kam bo'lsa, ularga ovoz berish huquqini kengaytiradi. Bu 2014 yilgi referendumda ovoz berish imtiyozlariga qarshi bo'lib, unda 16 yoshdan oshgan Shotlandiyada istiqomat qiluvchi Buyuk Britaniya, Irlandiya, Hamdo'stlik va Evropa Ittifoqi fuqarolari ishtirok etishdi.[79]

Ushbu qonun Parlament tomonidan 2020 yil 20 fevralda qabul qilingan va 2020 yil 1 aprelda Qirollik roziligini olgan.

Muammolar

Yevropa Ittifoqi

Shuningdek qarang: Evropa Ittifoqining kelajakdagi kengayishi § kelajakdagi mumkin bo'lgan senariylar

Shotlandiya hukumati Shotlandiya Buyuk Britaniyaning bir qismi sifatida ham, mustaqil davlat sifatida ham Evropa Ittifoqining a'zosi bo'lishi kerakligini himoya qiladi.[80]

Brexit

A qismi seriyali bo'yicha maqolalar
Brexit
Evropa Ittifoqi-Austritt (47521165961) .svg

Cheklash ning Birlashgan Qirollik dan Yevropa Ittifoqi

Atamalar lug'ati
Flag of Europe.svg Evropa Ittifoqi portali · Birlashgan Qirollik bayrog'i.svg Buyuk Britaniya portali
Natijalari Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zolik bo'yicha referendum ovoz berish joylari bo'yicha.
  Keting
  Qolmoq

Evropa Ittifoqining referendum natijalaridan so'ng, Sturgeon, Evropa Ittifoqining barcha a'zo davlatlariga Shotlandiya Evropa Ittifoqida qolish uchun ovoz berganligi to'g'risida xabar berishini aytdi.[81] 2016 yil 25 iyunda Shotlandiya hukumatining favqulodda yig'ilishida Shotlandiya hukumati Evropa Ittifoqi va unga a'zo davlatlar bilan muzokaralarga kirishishga, "Shotlandiyaning Evropa Ittifoqidagi o'rnini himoya qilish variantlarini" o'rganishga intilishiga kelishib olindi.[82][83] 2016 yil 28-iyun kuni Sturgeon "mustaqillik [...] bu munozaralarda mening boshlang'ich nuqtam emas. Mening boshlang'ich nuqtam Evropa Ittifoqi bilan munosabatlarimizni himoya qilishdir" dedi.[84]

2016 yil 29 iyunda bo'lib o'tgan Evropa Ittifoqi rahbarlarining sammitidan so'ng, Sturgeon Evropa Ittifoqining ba'zi rasmiylari bilan uchrashuvlar o'tkazdi.[85] U Buyuk Britaniyaning Evropa Ittifoqi tarkibida qolishi yoki ushbu hududlar Buyuk Britaniya chiqib ketganidan keyin Evropa Ittifoqi bilan maxsus kelishuvlarni amalga oshirish imkoniyatini ko'targan.[85] Devid Edvard, sobiq sudyasi Evropa Adliya sudi, ushbu kelishuvlar Shotlandiyaga berilgan siyosat sohalariga taalluqli deb taxmin qildi.[85]

Sturgeon, shuningdek, Evropa Komissiyasi prezidenti bilan uchrashdi Jan-Klod Yunker, kim "birinchi vazir menga aytadigan gaplarni diqqat bilan tinglayman ... lekin bizda ham niyat yo'q Donald Tusk bizning o'zimizga yaramaydigan va bu bizning ishimiz bo'lmagan Britaniyaning ichki jarayoniga aralashish.[86] Manfred Veber, rahbari Evropa xalq partiyasi guruhi va Gay Verhofstadt, rahbari Evropa uchun liberallar va demokratlar alyansi guruhi, Shotlandiyaning Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zo bo'lishini qo'llab-quvvatlashlarini ko'rsatdi.[87][88][89] Gyunter Krichbaum, Bundestagning Evropa Ittifoqi masalalari bo'yicha qo'mitasi rahbari Shotlandiyaning Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zo bo'lishiga oid ijobiy fikrlarni bildirdi.[90]

Ispaniya bosh vaziri Mariano Rajoy dedi: "Shotlandiyaning Evropa Ittifoqi bilan muzokaralar olib borish vakolatiga ega emasligi aniq".[86] U shuningdek, Evropa Ittifoqining "Birlashgan Qirollik hukumatidan boshqa hech kim bilan" muzokaralar olib borishiga qarshi ekanligini va "agar Buyuk Britaniya tark etsa ... Shotlandiya ketishi" ni bildirdi.[86] Xuddi shunday, Frantsiya Prezidenti, Fransua Olland, bayonot berdi: "Muzokaralar Buyuk Britaniyaning bir qismi bilan emas, balki Buyuk Britaniya bilan olib boriladi".[86]

Shotlandiya Evropa va tashqi ishlar bo'yicha qo'mitasi 2016 yil 30 iyunda to'rtta mutaxassislardan iborat guruhdan (doktor Kirsty Xyuzning Evropaning do'stlari, Qirolicha Meri huquqshunoslik maktabi professori Sionaid Duglas-Skot London universiteti, Ser Devid Edvard va professor Drew Skott Edinburg universiteti ) ular Shotlandiya va Evropa Ittifoqi munosabatlarini ta'minlashning eng yaxshi usuli deb hisobladilar.[91] Xyuz "eng sodda va eng ravshan yo'l mustaqil davlat bo'lish va Evropa Ittifoqiga o'tish va unda qolish" bo'lishini aytgan bo'lsa, Duglas-Skot "qonuniy ravishda presedentlar mavjud. [...] Ammo siyosiy qiyinchiliklar ham bo'lgan" ga ishora qilmoqda Kataloniya a'zo davlat Ispaniyada. Edvard "Shotlandiya Islandiya va Norvegiyaga juda mos keladi", deb ishongan Evropa iqtisodiy zonasi va Evropa erkin savdo uyushmasi, Skott Shotlandiya voris davlat bo'lishi mumkinligini, ya'ni Buyuk Britaniyaning qolgan qismi ketishini anglatadi, ammo Shotlandiya o'z o'rnini saqlab qoladi, deb ishora qilar edi.[91]

Buyuk Britaniyaning yangi bosh vaziri Tereza Mey 2016 yil 15 iyulda Sturgeon bilan uchrashdi Edinburg May, Shotlandiya uchun "variantlarni tinglashga tayyor" ekanligini aytganda,[92] keyinchalik u ba'zi variantlar "mumkin emas" deb aytgan bo'lsa-da.[93] Keyinchalik Sturgeon jamoatchilik oldida kelajakdagi kelishuvlar uchun beshta sinov borligini aytdi.[94] The IPPR Thinktank buni ta'kidladi Shotlandiya ittifoqchilari agar ular Britaniya ittifoqini saqlab qolishni xohlasalar, Shotlandiya uchun imkoniyatlarni taqdim etishlari kerak edi.[93] The Shotlandiya ishchilar partiyasi 2016 yil iyul oyida iqtisodiyotga bag'ishlangan "Harakat rejasi" ni e'lon qildi.[95]

Ularning manifestlarida 2017 yil Germaniya federal saylovi, Erkin demokratlar va Yashillar agar ular Buyuk Britaniyani tark etishsa, Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zolik Shotlandiya va Shimoliy Irlandiyaning (shuningdek, Buyuk Britaniyaning qolgan qismi uchun) variant bo'lib qolishini ta'kidladi.[96]

2017 yil aprel oyida, uchun hisobot Evropa parlamentining konstitutsiyaviy ishlar bo'yicha qo'mitasi Buyuk Britaniyaning Evropa Ittifoqidan chiqib ketishining Shotlandiya, Uels va Gibraltarga ta'siri va ularning Evropa Ittifoqi bilan kelgusi munosabatlariga qarash uchun nashr etilgan. Hisobotda Shotlandiyaning mustaqil bo'lish sharti bilan Evropa Ittifoqi a'zosi sifatida rad etilishi ehtimoldan yiroq emasligi ta'kidlanib, "bundan buyon emas de Gollniki 1960-yillarda Buyuk Britaniyaga a'zo bo'lish to'g'risidagi veto qonunni hurmat qiladigan demokratik mamlakatga qabul qilinishdan bosh tortgan ". Biroq, Shotlandiyaning mustaqilligini Buyuk Britaniya qabul qilib, Shotlandiya Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zo bo'lish uchun qabul qilishi kerakligini tasdiqladi:" Hozir u erda ko'rinadi qonuniy yo'llar bilan mustaqil bo'lish uchun Shotlandiya bo'lsa, u [Evropa] ittifoqiga qo'shilishi mumkin bo'lgan kelishuv ».[97]

Chegarani boshqarish

The Angliya-Shotlandiya chegarasi
The Umumiy sayohat zonasi

Birlashgan Qirollik Evropa Ittifoqini tark etishi va bundan oldin rad etilishi bilan Shengen zonasi, mustaqil Shotlandiya, agar Evropa Ittifoqiga qo'shilsa, Shengen hududini tark etishni davom ettirish uchun muzokaralar olib borishi kerak. Umumiy sayohat zonasi (CTA) Irlandiya va Buyuk Britaniya bilan birga. Bunday bekor qilinmasdan, Shotlandiya va CTA a'zolari o'rtasida pasport nazorati talab qilinishi mumkin. Agar Shotlandiya Evropa Ittifoqiga kiradigan bo'lsa, bu Buyuk Britaniyaning Evropa Ittifoqidan chiqishi sababli bojxona chegarasi paydo bo'lishiga olib kelishi mumkin.[98]

Qishloq xo'jaligi va baliqchilik

Birlashgan Qirollikning Evropa Ittifoqiga a'zoligiga ko'ra, Shotlandiya fermerlari huquqqa ega edilar Umumiy qishloq xo'jaligi siyosati (CAP) to'lovlari, baliq ovlari tomonidan qo'llab-quvvatlanadigan Umumiy baliqchilik siyosati (CFP). Brexit bilan bunday qo'llab-quvvatlash yangi to'lov tizimi joriy etilishi bilan tugashi kerak edi. Shotlandiya hukumati a'zolikni so'rab Evropa Ittifoqi bilan qishloq xo'jaligi subsidiyalari va baliq ovlash subsidiyalari va qoidalari bo'yicha yangi kelishuvni muhokama qilishi kerak edi.[99]

EFTA

2016 yil noyabr oyida Sturgeon Shotlandiya parlamenti a'zolariga Shotlandiya hukumati unga qo'shilish masalasini ko'rib chiqayotganligini tasdiqladi Evropa erkin savdo uyushmasi (EFTA) va Evropa iqtisodiy zonasi (EEA), ga asoslangan Norvegiya va boshqa ba'zi bir mamlakatlar, hatto Buyuk Britaniya umuman "qiyin" sharoitda chiqib ketsa ham, Evropaning "[yagona Shotlandiyaning] o'rnini himoya qilishi" kerak. Brexit ".[100] SNPning 2017 yilgi Umumiy saylovlar bo'yicha manifestida "Shotlandiya hukumati [SNP boshchiligida] Shotlandiyani Yagona bozorda ushlab turadigan takliflarni e'lon qildi, hatto biz Evropa Ittifoqidan chiqib ketganmiz".[101] Kristof Xillion, Evropa huquqshunosligi professori Oslo universiteti Shotlandiya parlamentiga ekspert xulosasini taqdim etish uchun taklif qilingan, Norvegiyada Buyuk Britaniyaning EFTAga qo'shilishi to'g'risida shubha mavjud bo'lsa-da, Shotlandiya juda ijobiy baholanadi va EFTAga a'zo davlatlar, ehtimol, mustaqil Shotlandiyani a'zo sifatida qabul qilishadi.[102]

Iqtisodiyot

Valyuta

2014 yilgi referendumda Shotlandiya hukumati Birlashgan Qirollik bilan valyuta ittifoqida qolish tarafdori edi. Buni Birlashgan Qirollik hukumati va muxolif partiyalar hech bir hukumatni qo'llab-quvvatlamaydigan siyosat sifatida rad etdi.[103] SNP Barqaror o'sish bo'yicha komissiyasi yangi partiya siyosatini ishlab chiqdi, agar u hukumatda bo'lsa, SNP kelajakdagi referendumdan keyin yangi Shotlandiya valyutasini yaratishni maqsad qilgan. Biroq, valyuta bir nechta muhim iqtisodiy sinovlar qondirilmaguncha qabul qilinmaydi va shu vaqtgacha SNP hukumati Shotlandiya iqtisodiyoti va davlatini Sterlingizatsiya siyosatiga ega bo'ladi.[104][105] Ushbu pozitsiya tahlil markazi tomonidan tanqid qilindi Umumiy Weal Shotlandiyada to'liq fiskal va pul suverenitetiga ega bo'lish vositasi sifatida mustaqillikning 1-kunigacha yangi valyutani qabul qilishni taklif qilganlar.[106]

COVID-19 turg'unlik

Shuningdek qarang COVID-19 turg'unlik

Shotlandiya hukumati mustaqillik referendumini rejalashtirishni to'xtatib qo'ygan bo'lsa-da, uning ta'siri Covid-19 pandemiyasi iqtisodiyotda ko'p yillar davomida mavjud bo'ladi.[107] Yopish bo'yicha cheklovlar yumshatilgandan beri kichik o'sish darajalariga qaramay, Shotlandiyaning Yalpi ichki mahsuloti 2020 yil fevral oyiga nisbatan 17,6 foizga pastligicha qolmoqda.[108] Therefore, this severe recession will have consequences on both the Scottish and UK Government's ability to supply confidence to people in Scotland on both continued participation within the United Kingdom and as an independent country.

Savdo

In 2013, Scotland exported around three and a half times more to the rest of the UK than to the rest of the EU,[109] while in 2015, that had increased to around four times more to the rest of the UK than to the rest of the EU.[110] The pro-union organisation Scotland in Union has suggested that an independent Scotland within the EU would face trade barriers with a post-Brexit UK and face additional costs for re-entry to the EU.[109]

Siyosiy javob

See also, for comparison 2014 Scottish independence referendum#Responses

Responses by politicians to the possibility of a referendum have been both pro-referendum and anti-referendum. This generally tends to show independence supporters favouring a referendum, with those against independence being against one.

In support of a referendum

Scottish Greens co-convener Patrick Harvie, on 13 March 2017 welcomed the confirmation from the First Minister that she is seeking a Section 30 Order from the UK Government to give the Scottish Parliament temporary power to hold an independence referendum.[111] This was re-affirmed in the Scottish Parliament on 29 January 2020 when the Greens voted with the government for a referendum to be held.

Shotlandiya sotsialistik partiyasi vakili Kolin Foks said the SSP would "work as hard as anyone to deliver a Yes vote for independence", but warned that making Scotland's EU membership a central and “overarching” issue of the debate would be “a risky strategy” and said it ran the risk of side-lining economic and social challenges facing Scots.[112][113]

The Scottish Independence Convention backs calls for a referendum. As a result, the Convention established Voices for Scotland as a civic campaign for independence based on conversations and discussions of what Scotland could look like.[114][115]

Alison Evison, President of the Shotlandiya mahalliy hokimiyat organlarining anjumani (COSLA) and Shotlandiyalik leyboristlar councillor for Aberdeenshire has stated her support for a referendum on independence, stating "We can strengthen it [democracy] by enabling the voice of Scotland to be heard through its formal processes and that must mean a referendum on independence"[116]

Former First Minister Aleks Salmond has shown support for a further independence referendum, claiming it is inevitable but only after what he predicts will be the ‘humiliation’ of Brexit becomes apparent for a clear choice to be made.[117]

Opposed to a referendum

British party leaders

In November 2019 during the lead up to the Buyuk Britaniyada umumiy saylovlar, leader of the Conservatives and Prime Minister Boris Jonson stated that a Conservative government would not permit a second independence referendum, vowing to "protect our magnificent union".[118]

Former Labour Party leader Jeremi Korbin said in March 2017 that a referendum would be "absolutely fine" and that "I don't think it's the job of Westminster or the Labour Party to prevent people holding referenda." However, a spokesman for Corbyn later said: "Labour continues to oppose a further referendum in the Scottish Parliament and would campaign against independence if one were held."[119]

Avvalgi Liberal-demokratlar rahbar Tim Farron in March 2017, said: “Scottish Liberal Democrats stood for election last year on a platform to oppose a new independence referendum. That is what we will do."[120]

A spokesperson speaking on behalf of Cameron's successor as Conservative Party Leader and Prime Minister, Tereza Mey, said in October 2016: "The prime minister and the government does not believe that there is a mandate for [a second referendum]. There was one only two years ago. There was an extremely high turnout and there was a resounding result in favour of Scotland remaining in the UK."[121]

Scottish party leaders

Vaqtinchalik Shotlandiya konservatori rahbar Jekson Karla has stated his opposition to a referendum. He has said; "We will not support another independence referendum for a generation." and that the Scottish Government should focus on its domestic agenda. He has stated that 40 years is what he sees as the time needed between referenda.[122]

Shotlandiyalik leyboristlar rahbar Richard Leonard is against an independence referendum. He has stated that Scotland should seek a new devolution settlement rather than becoming an independent country.[123] However, Leonard has said that UK Labour Party policy on independence and a referendum should be decided by the Scottish branch of the party rather than by the whole UK party.[124]

Shotlandiya liberal-demokratlari rahbar Villi Renni said in March 2017, "We stood on a platform last May where we said we were against independence and against another independence referendum",[125] he also said, "No independence referendum, either at Westminster or in the Scottish Parliament – that's the view of the Liberal Democrats."[126]

Fikr so'rovi

Shuningdek qarang: Shotlandiya mustaqilligi to'g'risida fikr-mulohazalar va Scottish independence § Public opinion
Shotlandiyaning mustaqil regling fit.png bilan mustaqillik so'rovi

Since the referendum in September 2014, opinion polls have asked how people would vote in a hypothetical second referendum. These polls have been carried out since six weeks after the referendum.[127] Twenty-five opinion polls were conducted in the year after the referendum, with seventeen of them having "No" as the predominant answer, seven having "Yes", and one having an equal proportion of respondents for each opinion.[128] During the period of 18 September 2015 to 18 September 2016 a further twenty-four opinion polls were conducted, of which twenty had "No" as the predominant answer while four had "Yes" as the predominant answer.[129] From 18 September 2016 to 18 September 2017 twenty-six polls were conducted with twenty-five returning "No" as the most popular answer and only one returning "Yes" as the most popular answer.[130]

"No" continued to show a lead in opinion polls until July 2019, when one poll by Lord Ashkroft showed a narrow majority for "Yes".[131] Professor John Curtice said after this poll was released that there had recently been a swing towards "Yes", and that this was concentrated among people who had voted to "Remain" in the 2016 Brexit referendum.[131] This trend continued into January 2020, when three polls put "Yes" support at between 50% and 52% (excluding undecideds).[132] During the spring there was essentially equal support for the two options, however from June onwards polling showed a consistent lead for "Yes".[133] In October 2020, "Yes" received its highest ever rating when an Ipsos MORI poll for STV yangiliklari showed 58% of respondents in support of independence.[133][134]

Shuningdek qarang

Izohlar

Adabiyotlar

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  11. ^ "Boris Johnson: I see no reason to ever allow indyref2". STV yangiliklari. 7 Noyabr 2019. Olingan 23 oktyabr 2020.
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