Bandlik, foizlar va pullarning umumiy nazariyasi - The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money

Bu maqola o'z ichiga oladi juda ko'p yoki juda uzoq takliflar entsiklopedik kirish uchun. Iltimos maqolani takomillashtirishga yordam bering kabi dalillarni taqdim etish orqali neytral shaklda bilan xulosa tegishli iqtiboslar. Bevosita kotirovkalarni o'tkazishni o'ylab ko'ring Vikipediya. (Avgust 2019)

Bandlik, foizlar va pullarning umumiy nazariyasi

Muallif	Jon Maynard Keyns
Mamlakat	Birlashgan Qirollik
Til	Ingliz tili
Janr	Badiiy adabiyot
Nashriyotchi	Palgrave Makmillan
Nashr qilingan sana	1936
Media turi	Qog'ozli qog'ozni chop eting
Sahifalar	472 (2007 yil nashr)
ISBN	978-0-230-00476-4
OCLC	62532514

Bandlik, foizlar va pullarning umumiy nazariyasi 1936 yil ingliz iqtisodchisining so'nggi kitobidir Jon Maynard Keyns. Bu iqtisodiy fikrda chuqur o'zgarishlarni keltirib chiqardi makroiqtisodiyot iqtisodiy nazariyada markaziy o'rin va uning ko'pgina terminologiyalariga hissa qo'shadi^[1] - "Keyns inqilobi "Bu iqtisodiy siyosatda bir xil darajada kuchli oqibatlarga olib keldi, umuman hukumat xarajatlari uchun, shuningdek byudjet taqchilligi, pul aralashuvi va tsiklga qarshi siyosat uchun nazariy qo'llab-quvvatlash sifatida talqin qilindi. Bu ratsionallikka ishonchsizlik havosi bilan o'ralgan. erkin bozorda qaror qabul qilish.

Keyns iqtisodiyot avtomatik ravishda ta'minlanishga moslashishini rad etdi to'liq ish bilan ta'minlash muvozanatda bo'lsa ham va bozorlarning o'zgaruvchan va boshqarib bo'lmaydigan psixologiyasi davriy o'sish va inqirozlarga olib keladi, deb hisoblar edi. The Umumiy nazariya ga qarshi doimiy hujumdir klassik iqtisodiyot o'z davrining pravoslavligi. Tushunchalarini kiritdi iste'mol funktsiyasi, tamoyili samarali talab va likvidlikni afzal ko'rish, va yangi e'tibor berdi ko'paytiruvchi va kapitalning marginal samaradorligi.

Keynsning maqsadi Umumiy nazariya

Ning markaziy argumenti Umumiy nazariya bandlik darajasi, bo'lgani kabi, ishchi kuchi narxi bilan belgilanmasligi klassik iqtisodiyot, lekin darajasi bo'yicha yalpi talab. Agar to'liq ish bilan ta'minlangan tovarlarga bo'lgan umumiy talab umumiy ishlab chiqarish hajmidan kam bo'lsa, unda tenglik o'rnatilgunga qadar iqtisodiyot shartnoma tuzishi kerak. Shunday qilib, Keyns to'liq ish bilan ta'minlashning tabiiy natijasi ekanligini rad etdi raqobatdosh muvozanatdagi bozorlar.

Bu bilan u o'z davrining an'anaviy ("klassik") iqtisodiy donoligiga qarshi chiqdi. Do'stiga yozgan xatida Jorj Bernard Shou 1935 yil Yangi yil kuni u shunday deb yozgan edi:

Men o'zimni iqtisodiy nazariya bo'yicha kitob yozayotganimga ishonaman, u asosan inqilobga olib keladi - menimcha, darhol emas, balki keyingi o'n yil ichida - dunyo o'zining iqtisodiy muammolari haqida qanday fikrda. Sizdan yoki boshqa birovdan hozirgi bosqichda bunga ishonishingizni kutolmayman. Ammo men o'zim aytgan so'zlarimga shunchaki umid qilmayman, - o'zimning fikrimcha, aminman.^[2]

Birinchi bob Umumiy nazariya (faqat yarim sahifa) xuddi shunday radikal ohangga ega:

Men bu kitobni Bandlik, foizlar va pullarning umumiy nazariyasi, ta'kidni prefiksga qo'yish umumiy. Bunday sarlavhaning maqsadi - men ilgari surgan va boshqaruv va akademik sinflarning iqtisodiy fikrida ham amaliy, ham nazariy jihatdan hukmronlik qilgan mavzuning klassik nazariyasi bilan mening dalillarim va xulosalarim xarakterini solishtirishdir. o'tgan asrda bo'lgani kabi, bu avlodning. Mumkin bo'lgan muvozanat pozitsiyalarining cheklovchi nuqtasi bo'lgan vaziyatda klassik nazariyaning postulatlari umumiy holatga emas, balki faqat maxsus holatga tegishli, deb ta'kidlayman. Bundan tashqari, klassik nazariya tomonidan qabul qilingan maxsus ishning xarakteristikalari biz yashayotgan iqtisodiy jamiyatning xarakteristikalari emas, natijada biz uni tajriba dalillarida qo'llashga harakat qilsak, uning ta'limoti noto'g'ri va halokatli bo'ladi.

Ning qisqacha mazmuni Umumiy nazariya

Keynsning asosiy nazariyasi (shu jumladan uning dinamik elementlari) 2-15, 18 va 22-boblarda keltirilgan bo'lib, ular bu erda qisqacha bayon qilingan. Qisqa hisob haqida maqolada topilgan Keyns iqtisodiyoti. Keyns kitobining qolgan boblarida turli xil amplifikatsiyalar mavjud va ular tavsiflangan keyinchalik ushbu maqolada.

I kitob: kirish

Ning birinchi kitobi Bandlik, foizlar va pullarning umumiy nazariyasi ning rad etishidir Say Qonuni. Keynsning aytishicha, ish haqi ishlab chiqarilgan mahsulot qiymatiga teng va ish haqi muqarrar ravishda iqtisodiyotga qayta tiklanib, hozirgi ishlab chiqarish darajasida talabni ushlab turishi mumkin edi. Demak, to'liq ish bilan ta'minlanishdan boshlab, ish joylarining yo'qolishiga olib keladigan sanoat mahsulotlarining tanqisligi bo'lishi mumkin emas. Keyns aytganidek, p. 18, "taklif o'z talabini yaratadi ".

Pul bilan ifodalangan ish haqining yopishqoqligi

Say qonuni bozor iqtisodiyoti faoliyatiga bog'liq. Agar ishsizlik bo'lsa (va agar ish bozorining moslashishiga to'sqinlik qiladigan hech qanday buzilishlar bo'lmasa), u holda ish haqini hozirgi ish haqi darajasidan pastroq darajada taklif qilishga tayyor ishchilar bo'ladi, bu esa ish haqining pastga bosimiga va ish o'rinlari takliflarining ko'payishiga olib keladi.

Klassiklar to'liq ish bilan ta'minlanish buzilmagan mehnat bozorining muvozanat sharti deb hisoblashdi, ammo ular va Keyns muvozanatga o'tishga to'sqinlik qiladigan buzilishlar mavjudligiga rozi bo'lishdi. Klassik pozitsiya odatda buzilishlarni aybdor deb hisoblash edi^[3] va ularni olib tashlash ishsizlikni yo'q qilishning asosiy vositasi bo'lganligi haqida bahslashish. Boshqa tomondan, Keyns bozordagi buzilishlarni iqtisodiy tarkibning bir qismi sifatida ko'rib chiqdi va turli xil siyosat choralarini ilgari surdi (bu alohida ko'rib chiqish sifatida) ijtimoiy oqibatlarga olib keldi, bu shaxsan o'zi konjenial deb topdi va u o'z o'quvchilaridan xuddi shu nuqtai nazardan ko'rishini kutdi.

Ish haqi darajasining pastga moslashishiga to'sqinlik qilgan buzilishlar mehnat shartnomalarida pul bilan ifodalanadi; eng kam ish haqi va davlat tomonidan ta'minlanadigan nafaqalar kabi turli xil qonun hujjatlarida; ishchilarning daromadlarining pasayishini qabul qilishni istamasligida; va birlashish orqali bozor kuchlariga qarshi bosim o'tkazishda ularga qarshi turish qobiliyatida.

Keyns ish haqi va mexnatning marginal unumdorligi o'rtasidagi klassik munosabatni 5-betda aytib o'tdi^[4] "klassik iqtisodiyotning birinchi postulati" sifatida va uni "Ish haqi tengdir marginal mehnat mahsuli ".

Birinchi postulat y '(N) = W / p tenglamada ifodalanishi mumkin, bu erda y (N) - ish bilan ta'minlanganlik N bo'lganida haqiqiy mahsulot, va W va p - bu ish haqi darajasi va narx darajasi pul bilan ifodalangan (va shuning uchun) W / p - bu ish haqining real stavkasi). Tizimni W sobit (ya'ni ish haqi pul bilan belgilanadi) yoki W / p sobit (ya'ni ular real ravishda belgilanadi) yoki N aniqlangan (masalan, ish haqi moslashtirilsa) to'liq ish bilan ta'minlash). Uchala taxmin ham ba'zida klassik iqtisodchilar tomonidan ilgari surilgan, ammo pul bilan belgilangan ish haqi taxminiga ko'ra "birinchi postulat" ikkita o'zgaruvchida (N va p) tenglamaga aylanadi va buning oqibatlari hisobga olinmagan. klassik maktab tomonidan.

Keyns "klassik iqtisodning ikkinchi postulatini" taklif qildi, bu ish haqi mexnatning cheklangan tarqoqligiga tengdir. Bu ish haqining real ravishda belgilanadigan namunasidir. U ikkinchi postulatni klassikaga tegishli bo'lib, ishsizlik ish haqi qonun hujjatlarida belgilanishi, jamoaviy bitimlar yoki "shunchaki odamning qaysarligi" (p6) natijasida kelib chiqishi mumkin, bularning barchasi ish haqini pul bilan belgilashi mumkin.

Keyns nazariyasining qisqacha mazmuni

Keynsning iqtisodiy nazariyasi tejash, investitsiya va likvidlik (ya'ni pul) talablari o'rtasidagi o'zaro bog'liqlikka asoslangan. Jamg'arma mablag'lari va mablag'lar teng bo'lishi shart, ammo ular bilan bog'liq qarorlarga turli omillar ta'sir qiladi. Jamg'arish istagi, Keynsning tahliliga ko'ra, asosan daromad funktsiyasidir: boy odamlar qancha boy bo'lsa, shuncha boylikni chetga surishga intiladi. Boshqa tomondan investitsiyalarning rentabelligi kapitalga bo'lgan rentabellik va foiz stavkasi o'rtasidagi bog'liqlik bilan belgilanadi. Iqtisodiyot muvozanat yo'lini topishi kerak, bunda sarmoyalanishdan ko'proq pul tejalmaydi va buni daromadlarning qisqarishi va natijada ish bilan bandlik darajasining pasayishi bilan amalga oshirish mumkin.

Klassik sxemada bu daromaddan ko'ra foiz stavkasi bo'lib, u jamg'arma va investitsiyalar o'rtasidagi muvozanatni saqlashga yordam beradi; ammo Keynsning ta'kidlashicha, foiz stavkasi iqtisodiyotdagi yana bir funktsiyani bajaradi, ya'ni pulga talab va taklifni tenglashtirish, va u ikkita alohida muvozanatni saqlashga moslasha olmaydi. Uning fikriga ko'ra, bu pul rolini o'ynaydi. Shuning uchun Keyns nazariyasi pul bilan bandlik kabi nazariya: qiziqish va likvidlikning pul iqtisodiyoti ishlab chiqarish, investitsiya va iste'molning real iqtisodiyoti bilan o'zaro ta'sir qiladi.

II kitob: Ta'riflar va g'oyalar

Birliklarni tanlash

Keyns pul massasi va ish haqi stavkalari tashqi tomondan belgilanadigan (ikkinchisi pul ko'rinishida) va asosiy o'zgaruvchilar turli xil muvozanat shartlari bilan belgilanadigan iqtisodiy modelni yaratish orqali ish haqining pastga egiluvchanligiga yo'l qo'ymaslikka harakat qildi. ushbu faktlar mavjud bo'lganda bozorlar.

Daromad va iste'mol kabi foizlarning ko'p qismi pulga tegishli. Keyns ko'pincha bunday miqdorlarni ish haqi birliklari (4-bob): aniqroq aytganda, ish haqi birliklaridagi qiymat uning Vtga bo'linadigan narxiga teng, ishchi soatiga ish haqi (pul birliklarida). Keyns odatda ish haqi birliklarida ifodalangan miqdorlar bo'yicha w pastki yozuvini yozadi, ammo bu hisobda biz w ni qoldiramiz. Vaqti-vaqti bilan biz Keynsning ish haqi birliklarida ifodalaydigan qiymat uchun haqiqiy atamalarni ishlatsak, uni kichik harflar bilan yozamiz (masalan, Y o'rniga Y).

Keyns birliklarni tanlashi natijasida, yopishqoq ish haqi taxminlari, garchi argument uchun muhim bo'lsa-da, asosan fikr yuritishda ko'rinmaydi. Agar biz ish haqi stavkasining o'zgarishi iqtisodiyotga qanday ta'sir qilishini bilmoqchi bo'lsak, Keyns bizga p. 266, bu pul massasining teskari o'zgarishi bilan bir xil bo'ladi.

Jamg'arma va investitsiyalarning o'ziga xosligi

Jamg'arma va investitsiyalar o'rtasidagi munosabatlar va ularning talablariga ta'sir etuvchi omillar Keyns modelida muhim rol o'ynaydi. Iqtisodiy agregatlarni ishlab chiqaruvchilar nuqtai nazaridan ko'rib chiqadigan 6-bobda ko'rsatilgan sabablarga ko'ra tejash va investitsiyalar teng ravishda teng deb hisoblanadi. Muhokama texnikaning eskirishi kabi masalalarni hisobga olgan holda murakkab, ammo p. 63:

Daromad joriy mahsulot qiymatiga teng, joriy investitsiyalar joriy mahsulotning iste'mol qilinmagan qismining qiymatiga teng bo'ladi va tejash daromadning iste'moldan oshib ketishiga teng bo'ladi degan kelishuv sharti bilan ... tejash va investitsiyalarning tengligi, albatta.

Ushbu bayonotda Keynsning odatdagidek tejash ta'rifi mavjud.

III kitob: iste'mol qilishga moyillik

Keynsning iste'mol funktsiyalari va daromad funktsiyalari sifatida tejash Y.

III kitob Umumiy nazariya 8-bobda iste'molga sarflanadigan xarajatlarning kerakli darajasi sifatida (individual yoki iqtisodiyot bo'yicha jamlangan) iste'molchilarga moyilligi berilgan. Iste'mol tovarlariga talab asosan daromad Y ga bog'liq va funktsional jihatdan C (Y) sifatida yozilishi mumkin. Jamg'arma bu daromadning iste'mol qilinmaydigan qismidir, shuning uchun S (Y) ni tejashga moyillik Y-C (Y) ga teng. Keyns foiz stavkasining tejash va iste'molning nisbiy jozibadorligiga ta'sirini muhokama qiladi, ammo uni "murakkab va noaniq" deb hisoblaydi va parametr sifatida qoldiradi.

Uning beg'ubor ko'rinadigan ta'riflari oqibatlari ko'rib chiqiladigan taxminni o'zida mujassam etgan keyinroq. Y ish haqi birliklari bilan o'lchanganligi sababli, ish haqi saqlanib turganda narxlar darajasining o'zgarishi natijasida hosil bo'lgan real daromadning o'zgarishi tejalgan daromad ulushiga ta'sir qilmaydi. Keyns buni II bo'limning 1-bandida nomaqbul ekanligini tan oladi.

9-bobda u ularni iste'mol qilish yoki qilmaslik motivlarini gomiletik sanab beradi, ularni nisbatan barqaror bo'lishi kutilgan, ammo 'o'zgarishi kabi ob'ektiv omillar ta'sir qilishi mumkin bo'lgan ijtimoiy va psixologik mulohazalarda yotishini topadi. hozirgi va kelajakdagi daromad darajasi o'rtasidagi bog'liqlikni kutish '(p95).

Iste'molga nisbatan chekka moyillik va ko'paytuvchi

The iste'mol qilishga marginal moyillik, C '(Y), binafsha egri chiziqning gradyenti va S' (Y) ni tejashga chekka moyilligi 1-C '(Y) ga teng. Keyns «asosiy psixologik qonun» (p96) sifatida ta'kidlashicha, iste'mol qilishga nisbatan chekka moyillik ijobiy va birlikdan kam bo'ladi.

10-bobda taniqli 'multiplikator' misol orqali keltirilgan: agar iste'mol qilishning chekka moyilligi 90% bo'lsa, u holda 'k multiplikatori 10 ga teng; va (masalan,) jamoat ishlarining ko'payishi natijasida ish bilan ta'minlanganlarning umumiy soni jamoat ishlarining o'zlari tomonidan ish bilan ta'minlanganlikdan o'n baravar ko'p bo'ladi '(pp116f). Rasmiy ravishda Keyns multiplikatorni k = 1 / S '(Y) deb yozadi. Uning "asosiy psixologik qonuni" dan kelib chiqadiki, k $ 1 dan katta bo'ladi.

Uning iqtisodiy tizimi to'liq yo'lga qo'yilgunga qadar Keynsning hisobi aniq emas (qarang) quyida ). 10-bobda u o'z multiplikatorini joriy etgan bilan bog'liqligini tasvirlaydi R. F. Kan 1931 yilda.^[5] Mexanizmi Kanning multiplikatori cheksiz bitimlar qatorida yotadi, ularning har biri bandlikni yaratish deb o'ylaydi: agar siz ma'lum miqdordagi pul sarflasangiz, u holda oluvchi olgan narsasining bir qismini sarflaydi, ikkinchi oluvchi yana bir qismini yana sarf qiladi va shu tariqa oldinga. Keynsning o'z mexanizmi haqidagi bayonida (117-betning ikkinchi xatboshisida) cheksiz qatorlar haqida hech qanday ma'lumot yo'q. Multiplikator bobining oxiriga kelib, u o'zining ko'p iqtibos keltirgan "qazish teshiklari" metaforasini qarshi ishlatadi laissez-faire. Keyns o'zining provokatsiyasida "Agar G'aznachilik eski butilkalarni banknotalarga to'ldirishi kerak bo'lsa, ularni ishlatilmaydigan ko'mir konlariga mos chuqurliklarda ko'mib tashlang, so'ngra ular shahar axlatlari bilan to'ldirilib, uni xususiy korxonalarga yaxshi sinovdan o'tgan printsiplar asosida qoldiring. laissez-faire banknotalarni yana qazib olish uchun "(...), endi ishsizlik bo'lmaydi va aksincha, jamiyatning haqiqiy daromadi va uning kapital boyligi ham yaxshi bitimga aylanishi mumkin. aslida mavjud bo'lganidan kattaroq. Darhaqiqat, uylar va shunga o'xshash narsalarni qurish yanada oqilona bo'lar edi; ammo agar bu yo'lda siyosiy va amaliy qiyinchiliklar mavjud bo'lsa, yuqoridagi narsa yo'qdan yaxshiroqdir ".^[6]

IV kitob: Investitsiyalarni jalb qilish

Investitsiya stavkasi

Keynsning kapitalning marginal samaradorligi jadvali

IV kitobda asosiy g'oyalar 11-bobda keltirilgan investitsiyalarni jalb qilish to'g'risida bahs yuritiladi. "Kapitalning marginal samaradorligi" yillik daromad sifatida tavsiflanadi, bu uning tannarxiga nisbati sifatida kapitalning qo'shimcha o'sishi natijasida hosil bo'ladi. "Kapitalning marginal samaradorligi jadvali" - bu har qanday foiz stavkasi uchun bizga barcha imkoniyatlar qabul qilingan taqdirda r, hech bo'lmaganda r bo'lgan sarmoyalar darajasini beradigan funktsiya. Qurilish bo'yicha bu faqat $ r $ ga bog'liq va uning argumentining kamayib boruvchi funktsiyasi; bu diagrammada tasvirlangan va biz uni I (r) deb yozamiz.

Ushbu jadval Irving Fisher "foizlar nazariyasining investitsiya imkoniyatlari tomoni" sifatida tasvirlangan hozirgi sanoat jarayonining o'ziga xos xususiyati hisoblanadi;^[7] va aslida u S (Y, r) ga teng bo'lishi sharti - bu daromaddan foiz stavkasini belgilaydigan tenglama klassik nazariya. Keyns nedensellik yo'nalishini o'zgartirishga intilmoqda (va $ S () $ ga dalil sifatida $ r $ qoldirish).

U jadvalni sarmoyaga bo'lgan talabni har qanday $ r $ qiymatida ifodalaydi, deb izohlaydi va unga muqobil nom beradi: "Biz buni investitsiya talabi-jadvali deb ataymiz ..." (p136). Shuningdek, u buni "kapitalga talab egri chizig'i" deb ataydi (p178). Ruxsat etilgan sanoat sharoitlari uchun biz "investitsiya miqdori ... foiz stavkasiga bog'liq" degan xulosaga kelamiz Jon Xiks uni qo'ying 'Janob Keyns va "klassiklar" '.

Foiz va likvidlikni afzal ko'rish

Keyns likvidlikni afzal ko'rishning ikkita nazariyasini taklif qiladi (ya'ni pulga talab): birinchisi 13-bobda qiziqish nazariyasi, ikkinchisi 15-bobda tuzatish sifatida. Uning dalillari tanqid qilish uchun keng maydonni taklif qiladi, ammo uning yakuniy xulosasi shu: likvidlik imtiyoz asosan daromad va foiz stavkasi funktsiyasidir. Daromadning ta'siri (bu haqiqatan ham daromad va boylik tarkibini aks ettiradi) mumtoz an'ana bilan umumiydir va o'z ifodasini topgan Miqdor nazariyasi; ilgari ham qiziqish ta'siri, xususan Frederik Lavington tomonidan qayd etilgan edi (qarang Xiksnikiga tegishli) Janob Keyns va "klassiklar" ). Shunday qilib, Keynsning yakuniy xulosasi yo'l davomida tortishuvlarga savol beradigan o'quvchilar uchun maqbul bo'lishi mumkin. Biroq u 15-bobni tuzatishni nominal ravishda qabul qilgan holda 13-bob nazariyasi nuqtai nazaridan o'ylashga doimiy moyilligini namoyish etadi.^[8]

13-bob birinchi nazariyani ancha metafizik jihatdan taqdim etadi. Keyns ta'kidlaydi:

Ko'rinib turibdiki, foiz stavkasi tejash yoki kutish uchun qaytish bo'lishi mumkin emas. Agar biror kishi o'z mablag'larini naqd pul bilan to'plasa, u foizlarni olmaydi, garchi u avvalgidek tejaydi. Aksincha, foiz stavkasining shunchaki ta'rifi bizga shunchalik ko'p so'zlar bilan aytadiki, foiz stavkasi belgilangan muddat davomida likvidlik bilan xayrlashish uchun mukofotdir.^[9]

Jakob Viner bunga javoban:

Shunga o'xshash mulohazalar bilan u ish haqi mehnat uchun mukofot ekanligini yoki foyda tavakkal qilish uchun mukofot ekanligini inkor etishi mumkin edi, chunki mehnat ba'zan daromadni kutmasdan yoki amalga oshirmasdan amalga oshiriladi va moliyaviy xavfni o'z zimmasiga olgan erkaklar zarar ko'rishi ma'lum bo'lgan natijada foyda o'rniga.^[10]

Keyns pulga bo'lgan talab faqat foiz stavkasining funktsiyasi ekanligini ta'kidlaydi:

Foiz stavkasi ... bu naqd pul shaklida boylikni ushlab turish istagini mavjud miqdordagi naqd pul bilan tenglashtiradigan "narx".^[11]

Frank Nayt Bu talab shunchaki narxning teskari funktsiyasi deb o'ylaydi, deb izohladi.^[12] Ushbu mulohazalardan kelib chiqadigan xulosa:

Likvidlik-afzallik - bu foizlar berilganda jamoat ushlab turadigan pul miqdorini belgilaydigan potentsial yoki funktsional tendentsiya; shuning uchun agar r foiz stavkasi, M pul miqdori va L likvidlikni afzal ko'rish funktsiyasi bo'lsa, bizda M = L (r) bo'ladi. Pul miqdori iqtisodiy sxemaga qayerda va qanday qilib kiradi.^[13]

Va bu foiz stavkasini belgilaydi, shuning uchun uni "unumdorlik va tejamkorlik" an'anaviy omillari bilan aniqlab bo'lmaydi.

15-bobda Keyns pulni ushlab turishning uchta sababini batafsilroq ko'rib chiqadi: "operatsiyalar motivi", "ehtiyotkorlik sababi" va "spekulyativ motiv". Uning fikricha, dastlabki ikkita motivdan kelib chiqadigan talab "asosan daromad darajasiga bog'liq" (p199), foiz stavkasi esa "kichik omil bo'lishi mumkin" (p196).

Keyns pulga bo'lgan spekulyativ talabni daromadlarning mustaqilligini asoslamasdan, faqatgina r funktsiyasi sifatida ko'rib chiqadi. U shunday deydi ...

muhim emas mutlaq r darajasi, ammo uning etarlicha ko'rib chiqilgan narsadan ajralib chiqish darajasi xavfsiz Daraja... ^[14]

ammo talab baribir r o'sishi bilan kamayib borishi mumkin deb taxmin qilish uchun asoslar beradi. Shunday qilib, u likvidlik imtiyozini L shaklida yozadi₁(Y) + L₂(r) bu erda L₁ bitim va ehtiyot choralari talablarining yig'indisi va L₂ spekulyativ talabni o'lchaydi. Keyns ifodasining tuzilishi uning keyingi nazariyasida hech qanday rol o'ynamaydi, shuning uchun likvidlilik afzalligini shunchaki L (Y, r) deb yozish orqali Xiksga ergashishning zarari yo'q.

"Markaziy bank tomonidan belgilanadigan pul miqdori" berilgan (ya'ni ekzogen - 247-bet) va doimiy ravishda qabul qilinadi (chunki pul yig'ish pul massasining zarur kengayishi mumkin emasligi bilan 174-betda chiqarib tashlangan) jamoat tomonidan belgilanadi)).

Keyns L yoki M ga "w" indeksini qo'ymaydi, bu biz ularni pul shaklida o'ylashimiz kerakligini anglatadi. Ushbu taklif uning 172-betdagi "Agar biz likvidlilik afzalligini ish haqi birliklari (ba'zi sharoitlarda qulay bo'lsa) bo'yicha o'lchamas ekanmiz ..." degan so'zlari bilan kuchaytirilgan. Ammo yetmish sahifadan so'ng likvidlilik afzalligi va pul miqdori haqiqatan ham "ish haqi birliklari bilan o'lchanadi" (p246) degan aniq bir bayonot mavjud.

Keyns iqtisodiy tizimi

Keynsning iqtisodiy modeli

14-bobda Keyns qiziqishning mumtoz nazariyasini o'zi bilan taqqoslaydi va taqqoslashda u o'zining tizimidan qanday qilib barcha asosiy iqtisodiy noma'lum narsalarni tushuntirish uchun tushuntirish uchun qanday foydalanish mumkinligini ko'rsatadi. Ikkala mavzuni birgalikda ko'rib chiqish mumkin, chunki ular bir xil tenglamani tahlil qilishning turli usullari.

Keynsning taqdimoti norasmiydir. Aniqroq qilish uchun biz 4 o'zgaruvchini - tejash, sarmoyani, foiz stavkasini va milliy daromadni va ularni birgalikda belgilaydigan 4 ta tenglamaning to'plamini aniqlaymiz. Grafik fikrni aks ettiradi. Qizil S chiziqlar klassik nazariyaga bo'ysunishda r ning ortib boruvchi funktsiyalari sifatida ko'rsatilgan; Keyns uchun ular gorizontal bo'lishi kerak.

Keynsning 180-betidagi o'zining diagrammasiga asoslangan iqtisodiy modelining grafik tasviri Umumiy nazariya.

Birinchi tenglama r̂ning foiz stavkasi likvidlikni afzal ko'rish funktsiyasi va L (r̂) = M̂ degan faraz orqali muomaladagi M that pul miqdoridan aniqlanadi, deb ta'kidlaydi.

Ikkinchi tenglama I (r the) sifatida kapitalning chekka samaradorligi jadvali orqali foiz stavkasini hisobga olgan holda investitsiya darajasini belgilaydi.

Uchinchi tenglama bizga tejash sarmoyaga teng ekanligini aytadi: S (Y) = Î. Yakuniy tenglama bizga daromad Ŷ - bu taxmin qilingan tejash darajasiga mos keladigan Y qiymati ekanligini aytadi.

Bularning barchasi qoniqarli nazariy tizimni yaratadi.

Dalilga oid uchta izohni berish mumkin. Birinchidan, "klassik iqtisodiyotning birinchi postulati" dan foydalanilmaydi, uni keyinchalik narx darajasini belgilash uchun chaqirish mumkin. Ikkinchidan, Xiks ("janob Keyns va" klassiklar "da) o'zining Keyns tizimining versiyasini tejash va sarmoyani ifodalovchi bitta o'zgaruvchiga ega; shuning uchun uning ekspozitsiyasi uchta noma'lum uchta tenglamaga ega.

Va nihoyat, Keynsning munozarasi 14-bobda bo'lib o'tganligi sababli, u modifikatsiyadan oldin likvidlikni afzalligi daromadga va foiz stavkasiga bog'liq bo'ladi. Ushbu modifikatsiyani amalga oshirgandan so'ng, noma'lum narsalarni ketma-ket qaytarib bo'lmaydi.

Keynsiyalik iqtisodiy aralashuv

Keynsning fikriga ko'ra, iqtisodiyotning holati to'rt parametr bilan aniqlanadi: pul massasi, iste'mol uchun (yoki unga teng ravishda tejash uchun) likvidlik uchun talab funktsiyalari va kapitalning cheklangan samaradorligi jadvali 'mavjud miqdor bilan belgilanadi. uskunalar "va" uzoq muddatli kutish holati "(p246). Pul massasini sozlash sohasi pul-kredit siyosati. Pul miqdori o'zgarishi ta'siri p da ko'rib chiqiladi. 298. O'zgarish birinchi navbatda pul birliklarida amalga oshiriladi. Keynsning p. 295, ishsizlik bo'lsa, ish haqi o'zgarmaydi, natijada ish haqi birliklarida pul massasi bir xil darajada o'zgaradi.

Keyinchalik uning ta'sirini diagrammadan tahlil qilishimiz mumkin, bu erda M ning o'sishi r̂ ni chap tomonga siljiydi, Î yuqoriga qarab siljiydi va umumiy daromad (va bandlik) ning o'sishiga olib keladi, uning hajmi barcha uchta talabning gradyanlariga bog'liq. funktsiyalari. Agar biz daromadning o'zgarishini kapitalning chegaraviy samaradorligi jadvalining yuqoriga siljishi (ko'k egri chiziq) funktsiyasi sifatida qarasak, biz investitsiyalar darajasi bir birlikka oshganligi sababli, daromad shunday qilib tuzatilishi kerakki, tejamkorlik darajasi (qizil egri chiziq) bir birlikka katta, shuning uchun daromadning o'sishi 1 / S '(Y) birlik, ya'ni k birlik bo'lishi kerak. Bu Keyns multiplikatorining izohi.

Shaxsiy sarmoyalar to'g'risidagi qarorlar ham shunga o'xshash ta'sirga ega bo'lishi shart emas, chunki kapitalning marginal samaradorligi jadvali tomonidan tavsiya etilgan darajadan yuqori sarmoyalash to'g'risidagi qarorlar jadvalning ko'payishi bilan bir xil emas.

Keyns va klassik iqtisodiyot tenglamalari

Keynsning o'zining iqtisodiy modelini dastlabki bayonoti (14-bobda) uning 13-bobida likvidlikni afzal ko'rish nazariyasiga asoslanadi. Uning 18-bobda qayta yozilishi uning 15-bobini qayta ko'rib chiqishini to'liq hisobga olmaydi va uni ajralmas tarkibiy qism sifatida emas, balki "ta'sir" manbai sifatida ko'rib chiqadi. Qoniqarli taqdimotni o'tkazish Jon Xiksga topshirildi.^[15] Pulga bo'lgan talab va taklif o'rtasidagi muvozanat ikkita o'zgaruvchiga bog'liq - foiz stavkasi va daromad - va ular tejashga moyillik va kapitalning chekka samaradorligi jadvali o'rtasidagi tenglama bilan bog'liq bo'lgan ikkita o'zgaruvchidir. Bundan kelib chiqadiki, ikkala tenglamani ham yakka holda echish mumkin emas va ularni bir vaqtning o'zida ko'rib chiqish kerak.

Klassik iqtisodiyotning "birinchi postulati" Keyns tomonidan ham qabul qilingan, ammo dastlabki to'rtta kitobida ishlatilmagan Umumiy nazariya. Keyns sistemasi, taxminan Xiksdan so'ng, quyida ko'rsatilgan uchta o'zgaruvchida uchta tenglama bilan ifodalanishi mumkin. Klassik iqtisodiyot uchun uchta o'xshash tenglama berilishi mumkin. Quyida keltirilganidek, ular Keynsning o'zi tomonidan berilgan shakllarda (V ga dalil sifatida r yozish amaliyoti undan kelib chiqadi Pul haqida risola^[16]).

Bu erda y N ga ishlaydigan ishchilar soni sifatida yozilgan; p - real mahsulot birligining narxi (pulda); V (r) - pulning tezligi; va V - pul bilan ko'rsatilgan ish haqi darajasi. N, p va r - biz tiklashimiz kerak bo'lgan 3 o'zgaruvchi. Keynsiya tizimida daromad ish haqi birliklari bilan o'lchanadi va shuning uchun faqatgina bandlik darajasining vazifasi emas, chunki u narxlarga qarab ham o'zgarib turadi. Birinchi postulat narxlarni bitta o'zgaruvchi bilan ifodalashi mumkin deb taxmin qiladi. Cheklangan ish haqi narxi va marginal o'rtasidagi farqni hisobga olgan holda qat'iyan o'zgartirilishi kerak asosiy xarajat.^[17]

Klassiklar ikkinchi tenglamani foiz stavkasini belgilashda, uchinchisi narxlar darajasini belgilashda, birinchisi bandlikni aniqlashda qabul qilishdi. Keyns oxirgi ikki tenglamani Y va r uchun birgalikda echish mumkin, deb ishongan, bu klassik tizimda mumkin emas.^[18] U shunga mos ravishda ushbu ikki tenglamaga e'tibor qaratdi va daromadni p bilan bandlik bilan "deyarli bir xil narsa" deb hisobladi. 247. Bu erda biz uning iste'mol funktsiyasi shaklini soddalashtirish orqali olgan foydasini ko'ramiz. Agar u uni (biroz aniqroq) C (Y, p / W) deb yozgan bo'lsa, unda unga yechim topish uchun birinchi tenglamani keltirishi kerak edi.

Pul bilan belgilangan ish haqi uchun ish bilan ta'minlashning klassik nazariyasi. (Uch egri chiziqning har xil vertikal masshtabi bor.)

Agar biz klassik tizimni tekshirishni istasak, foiz stavkasining muomalaning tezligiga ta'sirini e'tiborsiz qoldiradigan darajada kichik deb hisoblasak, vazifamiz osonlashadi. Bu bizga V ni doimiy ravishda ko'rib chiqishga va natijadan foiz stavkasini aniqlash uchun ikkinchi tenglamani qoldirib, birinchi va uchinchi tenglamalarni ("birinchi postulat" va miqdorlar nazariyasini) birgalikda echishga imkon beradi.^[19] Keyin biz bandlik darajasi formulada berilganligini aniqlaymiz

${ displaystyle { frac {y '(N)} {y (N)}} = { frac {W} {{ hat {M}} V}}}$.

Grafada chap tomonning raqamlagichi va maxraji ko'k va yashil egri chiziqlar bilan ko'rsatilgan; ularning nisbati - pushti egri chiziq - kamaygan marginal rentabellikni qabul qilmasak ham, N ning kamayuvchi funktsiyasi bo'ladi. Bandlik darajasi N̂ pushti egri chiziq qiymatiga ega bo'lgan gorizontal holat bilan beriladi ${ displaystyle W / ({ hat {M}} V)}$va bu, shubhasiz, V ning kamayib boruvchi funktsiyasi.

3-bob: Samarali talab printsipi

Biz ta'riflagan nazariy tizim 4-18 boblarda ishlab chiqilgan va Keyns ishsizligini "yalpi talab" nuqtai nazaridan sharhlaydigan bobda taxmin qilingan.

The jami ta'minot Z funktsional ravishda employed (N) sifatida yozilgan N ishchi ishlaganda ishlab chiqarilgan mahsulotning umumiy qiymati. Umumiy talab D ishlab chiqaruvchilarning f (N) shaklida kutilgan daromadidir. Muvozanatda Z = D. D ni D ga ajratish mumkin₁+ D.₂ qaerda D₁ bu C (Y) yoki χ (N) yozilishi mumkin bo'lgan iste'molga moyilligi. D.₂ "investitsiya hajmi" deb izohlanadi va bandlik darajasini belgilaydigan muvozanat sharti bu D₁+ D.₂ N. funktsiyalari sifatida Z ga teng bo'lishi kerak₂ I (r) bilan aniqlash mumkin.

Buning ma'nosi shundaki, muvozanatda tovarlarga bo'lgan umumiy talab umumiy daromadga teng bo'lishi kerak. Tovarlarga bo'lgan umumiy talab - bu iste'mol tovarlariga bo'lgan talab va investitsiya mahsulotlariga bo'lgan talabning yig'indisi. Demak Y = C (Y) + S (Y) = C (Y) + I (r); va bu tenglama Y berilgan r ning yagona qiymatini aniqlaydi.

Samuelson "s Keynsiyalik xoch 3-bob argumentining grafik tasviri.^[20]

Keyns nazariyasining dinamik jihatlari

5-bob: Ishlab chiqarish hajmi va bandligini belgilaydigan kutish

5-bobda kutishning iqtisodiyotdagi o'rni to'g'risida ba'zi sog'lom fikrlar mavjud. Qisqa muddatli kutishlar tadbirkor tanlagan ishlab chiqarish darajasini boshqaradi, uzoq muddatli kutishlar kapitallashuv darajasini o'zgartirish bo'yicha qarorlarni boshqaradi. Keyns bandlik darajasi uzoq kutishlarning o'zgarishiga moslashish jarayonini tavsiflaydi va quyidagilarni ta'kidlaydi:

Har qanday vaqtda bandlik darajasi nafaqat kutilgan holatga, balki o'tgan o'tgan davrda mavjud bo'lgan kutish holatlariga bog'liq. Shunga qaramay, hali o'zlarini oqlamagan o'tmishdagi umidlar bugungi kapital uskunalarida o'z aksini topgan ... va faqatgina [tadbirkorning] qarorlariga ular qanchalik o'z ifodasini topgan bo'lsa, shunchaki ta'sir qiladi.^[21]

11-bob: Kutish kapitalning chekka samaradorligi jadvaliga ta'sir qiladi

Keyns nazariyasida kutishning asosiy roli, biz ko'rganimizdek, 11-bobda kapitalning chegaraviy samaradorligi jadvalida yotadi. kutilgan qaytadi. Keyns bu erda Fisherdan farq qiladi^[22] U asosan kimga ergashadi, lekin u "xarajat ustidan rentabellik stavkasini" kutganidan ko'ra, haqiqiy daromad oqimi bo'yicha aniqlagan. Keynsning bu erda qilgan qadami uning nazariyasida alohida ahamiyatga ega.

14, 18-boblar: Bandlikka ta'sir ko'rsatadigan kapitalning chekka samaradorligi jadvali

Keyns o'zining klassik o'tmishdoshlaridan ish bilan bandlik darajasini aniqlashda kapitalning marginal samaradorligi jadvaliga o'z rolini belgilashda farq qildi. Uning ta'siri uning nazariyasining 14 va 18-boblarida taqdimotlarida aytib o'tilgan (qarang. Qarang) yuqorida ).

12-bob: Hayvonlar ruhlari

12-bob chayqovchilik va korxona psixologiyasini muhokama qiladi.

Ehtimol, ijobiy ishlarni amalga oshirish to'g'risidagi qarorlarimizning aksariyati, kelgusi bir necha kun ichida kelib chiqishi mumkin bo'lgan natijalarni faqat hayvonlarning ruhlari natijasida qabul qilish mumkin - harakatsizlikka emas, balki o'z-o'zidan harakatga intilishga, the outcome of a weighted average of quantified benefits... Thus if the animal spirits are dimmed and spontaneous optimism falters, leaving us to depend on nothing but a mathematical expectation, enterprise will fade and die.^[23]

Keynes's picture of the psychology of speculators is less indulgent.

In point of fact, all sorts of considerations enter into the market valuation which are in no way relevant to the prospective yield... The recurrence of a bank-holiday may raise the market valuation of the British railway system by several million pounds.^[24]

(Genri Hazlitt examined some railway share prices and found that they did not bear out Keynes's assertion.^[25])

Keynes considers speculators to be concerned...

...not with what an investment is really worth to a man who buys it 'for keeps', but with what the market will value it at, under the influence of mass psychology, three months or a year hence...

This battle of wits to anticipate the basis of conventional valuation a few months hence, rather than the prospective yield of an investment over a long term of years, does not even require gulls amongst the public to feed the maws of the professional;– it can be played by professionals amongst themselves. Nor is it necessary that anyone should keep his simple faith in the conventional basis of valuation having any genuine long-term validity. For it is, so to speak, a game of Snap, of Old Maid, of Musical Chairs – a pastime in which he is victor who says Snap neither too soon nor too late, who passed the Old Maid to his neighbour before the game is over, who secures a chair for himself when the music stops. These games can be played with zest and enjoyment, though all the players know that it is the Old Maid which is circulating, or that when the music stops some of the players will find themselves unseated.

Or, to change the metaphor slightly, professional investment may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole; so that each competitor has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view. It is not a case of choosing those which, to the best of one's judgment, are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinion genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some, I believe, who practise the fourth, fifth and higher degrees.

Chapter 21: Wage behaviour

Keynes's theory of the trade cycle is a theory of the slow oscillation of money income which requires it to be possible for income to move upwards or downwards. If he had assumed that wages were constant, then upward motion of income would have been impossible at full employment, and he would have needed some mechanism to frustrate upward pressure if it arose in such circumstances.

His task is made easier by a less restrictive (but nonetheless crude) assumption concerning wage behaviour:

let us simplify our assumptions still further, and assume... that the factors of production... are content with the same money-wage so long as there is a surplus of them unemployed... ; whilst as soon as full employment is reached, it will thenceforward be the wage-unit and prices which will increase in exact proportion to the increase in effective demand.^[26]

Chapter 22: The trade cycle

Keynes's theory of the trade cycle is based on 'a cyclical change in the marginal efficiency of capital' induced by 'the uncontrollable and disobedient psychology of the business world' (pp313, 317).

The marginal efficiency of capital depends... on current expectations... But, as we have seen, the basis for such expectations is very precarious. Being based on shifting and unreliable evidence, they are subject to sudden and violent changes.^[27]

Optimism leads to a rise in the marginal efficiency of capital and increased investment, reflected – through the multiplier – in an even greater increase in income until 'disillusion falls upon an over-optimistic and over-bought market' which consequently falls with 'sudden and even catastrophic force' (p316).

There are reasons, given firstly by the length of life of durable assets... and secondly by the carrying-costs of surplus stocks, why the duration of the downward movement should have an order of magnitude... between, let us say, three and five years.^[28]

And a half cycle of 5 years tallies with Jevons 's sunspot cycle length of 11 years.

Income fluctuates cyclically in Keynes's theory, with the effect being borne by prices if income increases during a period of full employment, and by employment in other circumstances.

Wage behaviour and the Phillips curve

Keynes's assumption about wage behaviour has been the subject of much criticism. It is likely that wage rates adapt partially to depression conditions, with the consequence that effects on employment are weaker than his model implies, but not that they disappear.

Lerner pointed out in the 40s that it was optimistic to hope that the workforce would be content with fixed wages in the presence of rising prices, and proposed a modification to Keynes's model. After this a succession of more elaborate models were constructed, many associated with the Fillips egri chizig'i.

Keynes's optimistic prediction that an increase in money supply would be taken up by an increase in employment led to Jeykob Viner 's pessimistic prediction that "in a world organized in accordance with Keynes' specifications there would be a constant race between the printing press and the business agents of the trade unions".^[10]

Models of wage pressure on the economy needed frequent correction and the standing of Keynesian theory suffered. Geoff Tily wrote ruefully:

Finally, the most destructive step of all was Samuelson's and [Robert] Solow 's incorporation of the Phillips curve into 'Keynesian' theory in a manner which traduced not only Phillips but also Keynes's careful work in the Umumiy nazariya, Chapter 21, substituting for its subtlety an immutable relationship between inflation and employment. The 1970s combination of inflation and stagnating economic activity was at odds with this relationship, and therefore 'Keynesianism', and by association Keynes were rejected. Monetarism was merely waiting in the wings for this to happen.^[29]

Keynes's assumption of wage behaviour was not an integral part of his theory – very little in his book depends on it – and was avowedly a simplification: in fact it was the simplest assumption he could make without imposing an unnatural cap on money income.

Ning yozilishi Umumiy nazariya

Keynes drew a lot of help from his students in his progress from the Pulga oid risola (1930) to the Umumiy nazariya (1936). The Kembrij sirki, a discussion group founded immediately after the publication of the earlier work, reported to Keynes through Richard Kan, and drew his attention to a supposed fallacy in the Risola where Keynes had written:

Thus profits, as a source of capital increment for entrepreneurs, are a widow's cruse which remains undepleted however much of them may be devoted to riotous living.^[30]

The Sirk disbanded in May 1931, but three of its member - Kah, Ostin va Joan Robinson – continued to meet in the Robinsons' house in Trumpington St. (Cambridge), forwarding comments to Keynes. This led to a 'Manifesto' of 1932 whose ideas were taken up by Keynes in his lectures.^[31] Kahn and Joan Robinson were well versed in marginalist theory which Keynes did not fully understand at the time (or possibly ever),^[32] pushing him towards adopting elements of it in the Umumiy nazariya. During 1934 and 1935 Keynes submitted drafts to Kahn, Robinson and Roy Xarrod izoh uchun.

There has been uncertainty ever since over the extent of the collaboration, Schumpeter describing Kahn's "share in the historic achievement" as not having "fallen very far short of co-authorship"^[33] while Kahn denied the attribution.

Keynes's method of writing was unusual:

Keynes drafted rapidly in pencil, reclining in an armchair. The pencil draft he sent straight to the printers. They supplied him with a considerable number of galley proofs, which he would then distribute to his advisers and critics for comment and amendment. As he published on his own account, Macmillan & Co., the 'publishers' (in reality they were distributors), could not object to the expense of Keynes' method of operating. They came out of Keynes' profit (Macmillan & Co. merely received a commission). Keynes' object was to simplify the process of circulating drafts; and eventually to secure good sales by fixing the retail price lower than would Macmillan & Co.^[34]

The advantages of self-publication can be seen from Etien Mantu 's review:

U nashr qilganida Bandlik, foizlar va pullarning umumiy nazariyasi last year at the sensational price of 5 shillings, J. M. Keynes perhaps meant to express a wish for the broadest and earliest possible dissemination of his new ideas.^[35]

Xronologiya

Keynes's work on the Umumiy nazariya began as soon as his Pulga oid risola had been published in 1930. He was already dissatisfied with what he had written^[36] and wanted to extend the scope of his theory to output and employment.^[37] By September 1932 he was able to write to his mother: 'I have written nearly a third of my new book on monetary theory'.^[38]

In autumn 1932 he delivered lectures at Cambridge under the title 'the monetary theory of production' whose content was close to the Risola except in giving prominence to a liquidity preference theory of interest. There was no consumption function and no theory of effective demand. Wage rates were discussed in a criticism of Pigou.^[39]

In autumn 1933 Keynes's lectures were much closer to the Umumiy nazariya, including the consumption function, effective demand, and a statement of 'the inability of workers to bargain for a market-clearing real wage in a monetary economy'.^[40] All that was missing was a theory of investment.

By spring 1934 Chapter 12 was in its final form.^[41]

His lectures in autumn of that year bore the title 'the general theory of employment'.^[42] In these lectures Keynes presented the marginal efficiency of capital in much the same form as it took in Chapter 11, his 'basic chapter' as Kahn called it.^[43] He gave a talk on the same subject to economists at Oxford in February 1935.

This was the final building block of the Umumiy nazariya. The book was finished in December 1935^[44] and published in February 1936.

Observations on its readability

Keynes was an associate of Lytton Strachey and shared much of his outlook.^{[misol kerak ][iqtibos kerak ]} Many economists found Umumiy nazariya difficult to read, with Etien Mantu calling it obscure,^[45] Frank Nayt calling it difficult to follow,^[46], Michel DeVroey commenting that "many passages of his book were almost indecipherable".^[47]va Pol Samuelson calling the analysis "unpalatable" and incomprehensible.^[48]Raúl Rojas dissents, saying that "obscure neo-classical reinterpretations" are "completely pointless since Keynes' book is so readable".^[49]

Inessential chapters

Chapter 16: Sundry observations on the nature of capital

§I: Say's Law

Keynes reiterates his denial that an act of saving constitutes an act of investment. A formulation of classical macroeconomics in three equations was given above as follows:

• y'(N) = W/p i (r) = s(y(N),r) M̂ = p·y(N) / V(r)

The role of Say's Law in Keynes's interpretation of them can be seen if we split the second equation into two components:

• i (r) = i_d(y(N),r) i_d(y(N),r) = s(y(N),r)

the first of which asserts the equilibrium between investment and its corresponding demand, and the second of which identifies the demand for investment with the desired level of saving. In rejecting the second component Keynes denies that the total demand for goods in an economy is identical with its total income – i.e. that supply creates its own demand – and is therefore able to make their equality an equilibrium condition.

Chapter 16 contains a few statements in support of the view that saving does not necessarily add to the demand for capital goods.

An act of individual saving means – so to speak – a decision not to have dinner to-day. But it does emas necessitate a decision to have dinner or to buy a pair of boots a week hence or a year hence or to consume any specified thing at any specified date.^[50]

... an individual decision to save does not, in actual fact, involve the placing of any specific forward order for consumption, but merely the cancellation of a present order.^[51]

U qo'shimcha qiladi:

The absurd, though almost universal, idea that an act of individual saving is just as good for effective demand as an act of individual consumption, has been fostered by the fallacy... that an increased desire to hold wealth, being much the same thing as an increased desire to hold investments, must, by increasing the demand for investments, provide a stimulus to their production; so that current investment is promoted by individual saving to the same extent as present consumption is diminished.^[52]

It is in this chapter that Keynes mentions "the ownership of money and debts" as "an alternative to the ownership of real capital-assets" (p212). On the same page he draws attention to what he considers to be the error of...

... believing that the owner of wealth desires a capital-asset bunaqa, whereas what he really desires is its prospective yield.

§II–IV: The declining yield of capital

Keynes argues that the value of capital derives from its scarcity and sympathises with 'the pre-classical doctrine that everything is ishlab chiqarilgan tomonidan labour' (p213). The preference for direct over roundabout processes will depend on the rate of interest.

He wonders what would happen to 'a society which finds itself so well equipped with capital that its marginal efficiency is zero' while money provides a safe outlet for savings. He does not consider this hypothesis far-fetched: on the contrary...

... a properly run community... ought to be able to bring down the marginal efficiency of capital in equilibrium approximately to zero within a single generation...^[53]

He asserts that...

... the position of equilibrium, under conditions of laissez-faire, will be one in which employment is low enough and the standard of life sufficiently miserable to bring savings to zero'.^[54]

The misery does not depend on any assumption of static wages. If the return to capital falls to zero then according to Keynes's theory there will be no investment, and income must collapse to the point at which the propensity to save disappears. However his conclusions are not pessimistic because he postulates that steps may be taken to adjust the interest rate to ensure full employment (p220), that 'enormous social changes would result' and that 'this may be the most sensible way of getting rid of many of the objectionable features of capitalism' (p221).

Chapter 17: The essential properties of interest and money

Keynes begins by defining 'own rates of interest'. If the market price for purchasing the commitment to supply a bushel of wheat every year in perpetuity was the price of 50 bushels, then the 'wheat rate of interest' would be 2%. He then tries to find the property which justifies us in regarding the money rate as the true rate. His arguments didn't satisfy his supporters^[55] who accepted Pigou's contention that it makes no difference which rate is used.^[56]

Hazlitt went further, considering the very concept of an own rate of interest to be 'one of the most incredible' of the 'confusions in the Umumiy nazariya.^[57]

Book V: Money-wages and prices

Chapter 23: Notes on mercantilism

In §I–IV Keynes gives a sympathetic notice to the 17th century mercantilists who, like himself, believed interest to be a monetary phenomenon and saw high interest rates as harmful. He accepts their conclusion that in principle export restrictions may prevent the flow of money abroad and lead to economic advantages at home.

For similar reasons Keynes sees justice in scholastic prohibitions of usury. He remarks in §V that Adam Smit had supported a maximum legal rate of interest.^[58] Smith's reasoning – certainly surprising from the proponent of the 'ko'rinmas qo'l ' of markets – was based on a fear that a high rate of interest would lead to loans being cornered by spendthrifts and get-rich-quick 'projectors'.

§VI is devoted to the theories of 'the strange, unduly neglected prophet Silvio Gesell ' who had proposed a system of 'stamped money' to artificially increase the carrying costs of money. 'The idea behind stamped money is sound', says Keynes, but subject to technical difficulties, one of which is the existence of other outlets for liquidity preference such as jewellery and formerly land. It is interesting that Keynes considered durable assets to be as much a problem as banknotes: even when they satisfy the same motives for ownership, they lack the property that wages are fixed in terms of them.

Keynes's final brief survey in §VII is of theories of underconsumption. Bernard Mandevil 18-asr boshlarida va Xobson va Mummery in the late 19th were amongst those who believed that private thrift was the source of public poverty rather than riches.

Chapter 24: Concluding notes on social philosophy

Saving does not, in Keynes's view, engender investment, but rather impedes it by reducing the likely return to capital: "One of the chief social justifications of great inequality of wealth is, therefore, removed" (p373).

It would not be difficult to increase the stock of capital up to a point where its marginal efficiency had fallen to a very low figure... [This] would mean the euthanasia of the rentier, and, consequently, the euthanasia of the cumulative oppressive power of the capitalist to exploit the scarcity-value of capital... it will still be possible for communal saving through the agency of the State to be maintained at a level which will allow the growth of capital up to the point where it ceases to be scarce... And it would remain for separate decision on what scale and by what means it is right and reasonable to call on the living generation to restrict their consumption, so as to establish in course of time, a state of full investment for their successors.^[59]

In some other respects the foregoing theory is moderately conservative in its implications... Thus, apart from the necessity of central controls to bring about an adjustment between the propensity to consume and the inducement to invest, there is no more reason to socialise economic life than there was before.^[60]

... the ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back... But, soon or late, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil.^[61]

Qabul qilish

Keynes did not set out a detailed policy program in The General Theory, but he went on in practice to place great emphasis on the reduction of long-term interest rates^[62] and the reform of the international monetary system^[63] as structural measures needed to encourage both investment and consumption by the private sector. Pol Samuelson said that the General Theory "caught most economists under the age of 35 with the unexpected virulence of a disease first attacking and decimating an isolated tribe of South Sea islanders."^[64]

Maqtov

Many of the innovations introduced by The General Theory continue to be central to modern makroiqtisodiyot. For instance, the idea that recessions reflect inadequate aggregate demand and that Say Qonuni (in Keynes's formulation, that "supply creates its own demand ") does not hold in a monetary economy. President Richard Nixon famously said in 1971 (ironically, shortly before Keynesian economics fell out of fashion) that "We are all Keynesians now ", a phrase often repeated by Nobel laureate Pol Krugman (but originating with anti-Keynesian economist Milton Fridman, said in a way different from Krugman's interpretation).^[65] Nevertheless, starting with Axel Leijonhufvud, this view of Keynesian economics came under increasing challenge and scrutiny^[66] and has now divided into two main camps.

The majority new consensus view, found in most current text-books and taught in all universities, is Yangi Keyns iqtisodiyoti, which accepts the neoklassik concept of long-run equilibrium but allows a role for yalpi talab qisqa muddatda. New Keynesian economists pride themselves on providing microeconomic foundations for the sticky prices and wages assumed by Old Keynesian economics. They do not regard The General Theory itself as helpful to further research. The minority view is represented by post-Keynesian economists, all of whom accept Keynes's fundamental critique of the neoklassik concept of long-run equilibrium, and some of whom think The General Theory has yet to be properly understood and repays further study.

In 2011, the book was placed on Vaqt's top 100 non-fiction books written in English since 1923.^[67]

Tanqidlar

From the outset there has been controversy over what Keynes really meant. Many early reviews were highly critical. The success of what came to be known as "neoclassical synthesis " Keyns iqtisodiyoti owed a great deal to the Harvard economist Alvin Xansen and MIT economist Pol Samuelson as well as to the Oxford economist Jon Xiks. Hansen and Samuelson offered a lucid explanation of Keynes's theory of yalpi talab with their elegant 45° Keynsiyalik xoch diagram while Hicks created the IS-LM diagram. Both of these diagrams can still be found in textbooks. Postkeynsliklar argue that the neoclassical Keynesian model is completely distorting and misinterpreting Keynes' original meaning.

Just as the reception of The General Theory was encouraged by the 1930s experience of mass unemployment, its fall from favour was associated with the 'stagflyatsiya ' of the 1970s. Although few modern economists would disagree with the need for at least some intervention, policies such as mehnat bozorining moslashuvchanligi are underpinned by the neoklassik notion of equilibrium in the long run. Although Keynes explicitly addresses inflation, The General Theory does not treat it as an essentially monetary phenomenon or suggest that control of the money supply or interest rates is the key remedy for inflation, unlike neoklassik nazariya.

Lastly, Keynes' economic theory was criticized by Marksist iqtisodchilar, who said that Keynes ideas, while good intentioned, cannot work in the long run due to the contradictions in capitalism. A couple of these, that Marxians point to are the idea of full employment, which is seen as impossible under private capitalism; and the idea that government can encourage capital investment through government spending, when in reality government spending could be a net loss on profits.

Adabiyotlar

Qo'shimcha o'qish

Kirishlar

The earliest attempt to write a student guide was Robinson (1937) and the most successful (by numbers sold) was Xansen (1953). These are both quite accessible but adhere to the Old Keynesian school of the time. An up-to-date post-Keynesian attempt, aimed mainly at graduate and advanced undergraduate students, is Hayes (2006), and an easier version is Sheehan (2009). Pol Krugman has written an introduction to the 2007 Palgrave Makmillan nashri The General Theory.

Jurnal maqolalari

• Caldwell, Bruce (1998). "Why Didn't Hayek Review Keynes's Umumiy nazariya" (PDF). Siyosiy iqtisod tarixi. XXX (4): 545–569. doi:10.1215/00182702-30-4-545.CS1 maint: ref = harv (havola)
• Rueff, Jacques (May 1947). "The Fallacies of Lord Keynes General Theory". Iqtisodiyotning har choraklik jurnali. Oksford: Oksford universiteti matbuoti. LXI (3): 343–367. doi:10.2307/1879560. JSTOR  1879560.
• Rueff, Jacques (November 1948). "The Fallacies of Lord Keynes' General Theory: Reply". Iqtisodiyotning har choraklik jurnali. Oksford: Oksford universiteti matbuoti. LXII (5): 771–782. doi:10.2307/1883471. JSTOR  1883471.
• Samuelson, Paul (1946). "Lord Keynes and the General Theory". Ekonometrika. XIV (3): 187–200. doi:10.2307/1905770. JSTOR  1905770.CS1 maint: ref = harv (havola)
• Tobin, James (1948 yil noyabr). "The Fallacies of Lord Keynes' General Theory: Comment". Iqtisodiyotning har choraklik jurnali. Oksford: Oksford universiteti matbuoti. LXII (5): 763–770. doi:10.2307/1883470. JSTOR  1883470.

Kitoblar

• Amadeo, Edward (1989). The principle of effective demand. Aldershot UK and Brookfield US: Edward Elgar.
• Ambrosi, Gerhard Michael (2003). Keyns. Pigou and Cambridge Keynesians, London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Chick, Victoria (1983). Macroeconomics after Keynes. Oxford: Philip Allan.
• Devidson, Pol (1972). Money and the Real World. London: Makmillan.
• Davidson, Paul (2002). Financial markets, money and the real world. Cheltenham UK and Northampton US: Edward Elgar.
• Hansen, Alvin (1953). A Guide To Keynes. Nyu-York: McGraw Hill.
• Harcourt, Geoff and Riach, Peter (eds.) (1997). A 'Second Edition' of The General Theory. London: Routledge.
• Hayes, Mark (2006). The economics of Keynes: a New Guide to The General Theory. Cheltenham UK and Northampton US: Edward Elgar.
• Hazlitt, Genri (1959). The Failure of the New Economics. Princeton, NJ: Van Nostran.
• Keyns, Jon Maynard (1936). Bandlik, foizlar va pullarning umumiy nazariyasi. London: Macmillan (reprinted 2007).
• Lawlor, Michael (2006). The economics of Keynes in historical context. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Leijonhufvud, Aksel (1968). Keyns iqtisodiyoti va Keyns iqtisodiyoti. Nyu-York: Oksford universiteti matbuoti.
• Markvell, Donald (2006). Jon Maynard Keyns va xalqaro aloqalar: urush va tinchlikning iqtisodiy yo'llari. Oksford: Oksford universiteti matbuoti.
• Markvell, Donald (2000). Keyns va Avstraliya. Sydney: Reserve Bank of Australia.
• Minsky, Hyman (1975). Jon Maynard Keyns. Nyu-York: Kolumbiya universiteti matbuoti.
• Patinkin, Don (1976). Keynes's monetary thought. Durham NC: Duke University Press.
• Robinzon, Joan (1937). Introduction to the theory of employment. London: Makmillan.
• Sheehan, Brendan (2009). Understanding Keynes' General Theory. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Tily, Geoff (2007). Keynes's General Theory, the Rate of Interest and 'Keynesian' Economics. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Trevithick, James (1992). Majburiy ishsizlik. Hemel Hempstead: Simon & Schuster.

Tashqi havolalar

• Introduction by Paul Krugman to The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, by John Maynard Keynes
• Full text on marxists.org
• Reply to Viner, QJE, 1937. A valuable paper in which Keynes restates many of his ideas in the light of criticisms. It has no agreed title and is also known as 'The General Theory of Employment' or as 'the 1937 QJE paper'.
• Foreword to the German Edition of the General Theory/Vorwort Zur Deutschen Ausgabe
• Full text in html5.id.toc.preview. (with ids, table-of-contents, preview, ModelConcept, name-index)