Giperinflyatsiya - Hyperinflation

100 kvintillion (10²⁰) pengő, 1946 yilgi Vengriya, hozirgacha chop etilgan eng yirik banknota.

Venesueladagi giperinflyatsiya pulning 90% qiymatini yo'qotishi kerak bo'lgan vaqt bilan ifodalanadi (301 kun) o'rtacha o'rtacha, teskari logaritmik shkala).

Yilda iqtisodiyot, giperinflyatsiya juda yuqori va odatda tezlashadi inflyatsiya. Bu tezda yemiradi haqiqiy qiymat mahalliy valyuta, barcha tovarlarning narxi oshishi bilan. Bu odamlarning valyutadagi mablag'larini minimallashtirishga olib keladi, chunki ular odatda barqaror xorijiy valyutalarga o'tishadi, yaqin tarixda ko'pincha AQSh dollari.^[1] Narxlar, odatda, boshqa nisbatan barqaror valyutalarga nisbatan barqaror bo'lib qoladi.

Narxlarni ko'tarish jarayoni cho'zilib ketadigan va umuman sezilmaydigan past inflyatsiyadan farqli o'laroq, o'tgan bozor narxlarini o'rganishgina tashqari, giperinflyatsiya tez va davom etayotgan nominal narxlarni, tovarlarning nominal narxini va valyuta ta'minoti.^[2] Odatda, narxlarning umumiy darajasi pul massasiga qaraganda tezroq ko'tariladi, chunki odamlar imkon qadar tez qadrsizlanayotgan valyutadan xalos bo'lishga harakat qilishadi. Bu sodir bo'lganda, haqiqiy pul zaxirasi (ya'ni muomaladagi pul miqdori narx darajasiga bo'lingan holda) sezilarli darajada kamayadi.^[3]

Deyarli barcha giperinflyatsiyalar hukumat tomonidan kelib chiqqan byudjet taqchilligi valyuta yaratish hisobiga moliyalashtiriladi. Giperinflyatsiya ko'pincha hukumat byudjetidagi ba'zi bir stresslar bilan bog'liq, masalan urushlar yoki ularning oqibatlari, ijtimoiy-siyosiy g'alayonlar, yalpi ta'minotning qulashi yoki eksport narxlari yoki boshqa inqirozlar, bu hukumat uchun soliq tushumini to'plashni qiyinlashtiradi. Haqiqiy soliq tushumlarining keskin pasayishi va davlat xarajatlarini saqlab qolish uchun katta ehtiyoj bilan birga qarz olishga qodir emasligi yoki istamasligi mamlakatni giperinflyatsiyaga olib kelishi mumkin.^[3]

Ta'rif

Argentinada giperinflyatsiya

1956 yilda, Filipp Kagan yozgan Giperinflyatsiyaning monetar dinamikasi, kitob ko'pincha giperinflyatsiya va uning ta'sirini birinchi jiddiy o'rganish sifatida qabul qilingan^[4] (Garchi Inflyatsiya iqtisodiyoti Germaniya giperinflyatsiyasi to'g'risida C. Bresciani-Turroni tomonidan 1931 yilda italyan tilida nashr etilgan^[5]). Kagan o'z kitobida giperinflyatsiya epizodini oydan boshlab inflyatsiya darajasi oylik inflyatsiya darajasi 50% dan oshib ketishi va oylik inflyatsiya darajasi 50% dan pastga tushganda tugashi va kamida bir yil davomida saqlanib qolishi deb ta'riflagan.^[6] Odatda iqtisodchilar ergashadilar Kagan Giperinflyatsiya oylik inflyatsiya darajasi 50% dan oshganda sodir bo'ladi (bu yiliga 12 874,63% darajaga teng).^[4]

The Buxgalteriya hisobi bo'yicha xalqaro standartlar kengashi giperinflyatsion muhitda buxgalteriya qoidalari bo'yicha ko'rsatma chiqardi. Giperinflyatsiya qachon paydo bo'lishi to'g'risida mutlaq qoidalarni o'rnatmaydi. Buning o'rniga giperinflyatsiya mavjudligini ko'rsatuvchi omillar keltirilgan:^[7]

• Umumiy aholi o'z boyligini pulsiz aktivlarda yoki nisbatan barqaror xorijiy valyutada saqlashni afzal ko'radi. Xarid qilish qobiliyatini saqlab qolish uchun zudlik bilan ushlab turiladigan mahalliy valyuta miqdori investitsiya qilinadi
• Aholining umumiy miqdori pul miqdorini mahalliy valyuta emas, balki nisbatan barqaror xorijiy valyuta nuqtai nazaridan ko'rib chiqadi. Narxlar ushbu valyutada belgilanishi mumkin;
• Kredit bo'yicha sotish va sotib olish, kredit muddati davomida, hatto qisqa muddat bo'lsa ham, sotib olish qobiliyatining kutilgan yo'qotilishini qoplaydigan narxlarda amalga oshiriladi;
• Foiz stavkalari, ish haqi va narxlar narxlar indeksiga bog'liq; va
• Uch yil davomida inflyatsiya yig'indisi 100% ga yaqinlashadi yoki undan oshadi.

Sabablari

Yuqori inflyatsiyaning bir qator sabablari bo'lishi mumkin bo'lsa-da, deyarli barcha giperinflyatsiyalar hukumat tomonidan kelib chiqqan byudjet taqchilligi valyuta yaratish hisobidan moliyalashtiriladi. Piter Bernxolz 29 giperinflyatsiyani tahlil qildi (Kagan ta'rifiga binoan) va ulardan kamida 25tasi shu tarzda kelib chiqqan degan xulosaga keldi.^[8] Giperinflyatsiya uchun zarur shart - bu foydalanish qog'oz pul, oltin yoki kumush tangalar o'rniga. Tarixdagi ko'pgina giperinflyatsiyalar, ba'zi istisnolardan tashqari, masalan, frantsuzcha giperinflyatsiya 1789–1796 yy. Fiat valyutasi 19-asrning oxirida keng tarqaldi. Frantsuz giperinflyatsiyasi konvertatsiya qilinmaydigan qog'oz valyuta joriy etilgandan so'ng sodir bo'ldi tayinlash.

Pul ta'minoti

Giperinflyatsiya tovar va xizmatlar ishlab chiqarish hajmining tegishli o'sishi bilan ta'minlanmaydigan pul miqdorining tez (va tez-tez tezlashib boruvchi) tez o'sishida ro'y beradi.

Tezlikdan kelib chiqadigan narxning oshishi pul yaratish hukumat tanqisligini moliyalashtirish uchun tobora o'sib boradigan yangi pul mablag'larini talab qiladigan bepusht doirani yaratadi. Shuning uchun ikkalasi ham pul inflyatsiyasi va narxlar inflyatsiyasi tez sur'atlarda davom etmoqda. Bunday tez sur'atlarda o'sib borayotgan narxlar mahalliy aholining mahalliy valyutani ushlab turishni istamasligiga sabab bo'ladi, chunki u tezda sotib olish qobiliyatini yo'qotadi. Buning o'rniga, ular har qanday pulni tezda sarflaydilar, bu esa ko'payadi pul tezligi oqim; bu o'z navbatida narxlarning yanada tezlashishiga olib keladi. Bu shuni anglatadiki, narxlar darajasining o'sishi pul massasidan kattaroqdir.^[9] M / P pulning haqiqiy zaxirasi kamayadi. Bu erda M pul fondiga, P esa narx darajasiga ishora qiladi.

Bu o'rtasidagi muvozanatni keltirib chiqaradi talab va taklif inflyatsiyani tezlashtiradigan pul uchun (shu jumladan valyuta va bank depozitlari). Juda yuqori inflyatsiya darajasi a ga o'xshash valyutaga bo'lgan ishonchni yo'qotishiga olib kelishi mumkin bank boshqaruvi. Odatda, pul massasining haddan tashqari o'sishi hukumat tomonidan soliq yoki qarz olish yo'li bilan davlat byudjetini to'liq moliyalashtirishga qodir emasligi yoki xohlamasligi natijasida kelib chiqadi va buning o'rniga u davlat byudjeti kamomadini pulni bosib chiqarish orqali moliyalashtiradi.^[10]

Hukumatlar ba'zida haddan tashqari bo'sh pul siyosatiga murojaat qilishdi, chunki bu hukumatga qarzlarini qadrsizlantirish va soliq o'sishini kamaytirish (yoki oldini olish) imkonini beradi. Monetar inflyatsiya kreditorlardan olinadigan yagona soliq bo'lib, u xususiy qarzdorlarga mutanosib ravishda qayta taqsimlanadi. Pul inflyatsiyasining taqsimot effektlari murakkab va vaziyatga qarab o'zgarib turadi, ba'zi modellar regressiv ta'sirni topadi^[11] ammo boshqa empirik tadqiqotlar progressiv effektlar.^[12] Soliq shakli sifatida, undiriladigan soliqlarga qaraganda unchalik ochiq emas va shuning uchun oddiy fuqarolar uni tushunishlari qiyinroq. Inflyatsiya haqiqiy hayot narxining miqdoriy baholarini yashirishi mumkin, chunki e'lon qilingan narxlar indekslari ma'lumotlarga faqat orqaga qarab qarashadi, shuning uchun faqat bir necha oy o'tgach o'sishi mumkin. Pul inflyatsiyasi pul idoralari davlat xarajatlarini ko'paytirishni moliyalashtirmasa, giperinflyatsiyaga aylanishi mumkin soliqlar, hukumat qarzi, xarajatlarni kamaytirish yoki boshqa yo'llar bilan, chunki ham

• soliqqa tortiladigan operatsiyalarni ro'yxatga olish yoki yig'ish bilan to'lash kerak bo'lgan soliqlarni yig'ish o'rtasidagi vaqt oralig'ida yig'ilgan soliqlar qiymati dastlabki debitorlik qarzlarining kichik qismiga real qiymatiga tushadi; yoki
• hukumat qarzi bilan bog'liq muammolar juda chuqur chegirmalardan tashqari xaridor topa olmaydi; yoki
• yuqoridagilarning kombinatsiyasi.

Giperinflyatsiya nazariyalari odatda o'zaro bog'liqlikni izlaydi senyoraj va inflyatsiya solig'i. Kagan modelida ham, neo-klassik modellarda ham pul massasining ko'payishi yoki pul bazasining pasayishi hukumat moliyaviy holatini yaxshilashga imkon bermasa, eng yuqori nuqta paydo bo'ladi. Shunday qilib qachon Fiat pullari bosilgan, pul bilan ifodalanmagan davlat majburiyatlari tannarxi yaratilgan pul qiymatidan oshib ketadi.

Germaniyada oltin narxi, 1918 yil 1-yanvar - 1923 yil 30-noyabr. (Vertikal shkala - bu logaritmik ).

Bundan kelib chiqadiki, nima uchun har qanday oqilona hukumat giperinflyatsiyani keltirib chiqaradigan yoki davom ettiradigan harakatlar bilan shug'ullanadi? Bunday harakatlarning sabablaridan biri shundaki, ko'pincha giperinflyatsiyaga alternativa bo'ladi depressiya yoki harbiy mag'lubiyat. Buning asosiy sababi ko'proq tortishuvlarga sabab bo'ladi. Ikkalasida ham klassik iqtisodiyot va monetarizm, bu har doim pul idorasining mas'uliyatsiz ravishda barcha xarajatlarini to'lash uchun qarz olganligi oqibatidir. Ushbu modellar cheklanmaganlarga qaratilgan senyoraj monetar hokimiyatning va daromadlari inflyatsiya solig'i.

Neoklassik iqtisodiy nazariyada giperinflyatsiya tubining yomonlashuvidan kelib chiqadi pul bazasi, bu valyuta keyinchalik buyruq bera oladigan qiymat do'koni borligiga ishonch. Ushbu modelda valyutani ushlab turish xavfi keskin ko'tariladi va sotuvchilar valyutani qabul qilish uchun tobora yuqori mukofotlar talab qilmoqdalar. Bu o'z navbatida valyutaning qulab tushishi va undan yuqori mukofot to'lovlarini keltirib chiqarish qo'rquviga olib keladi. Bunga misollardan biri urushlar, fuqarolar urushi yoki boshqa turdagi kuchli ichki to'qnashuvlar davridir: hukumatlar kurashni davom ettirish uchun zarur bo'lgan barcha narsani qilishlari kerak, chunki alternativa mag'lubiyatdir. Xarajatlarni sezilarli darajada qisqartirish mumkin emas, chunki asosiy xarajatlar qurollanishdir. Bundan tashqari, fuqarolar urushi soliqlarni oshirishni yoki mavjud soliqlarni yig'ishni qiyinlashtirishi mumkin. Tinchlik davrida defitsit obligatsiyalarni sotish hisobidan moliyalashtirilsa, urush paytida qarz olish odatda qiyin va qimmatga tushadi, ayniqsa, urush hukumat uchun yomon kechayotgan bo'lsa. Bank idoralari, markaziy bo'ladimi yoki yo'qmi, defitsitni "monetizatsiya qiladilar", hukumatning tirik qolish harakatlarini to'lash uchun pulni bosib chiqaradilar. Ostida giperinflyatsiya Xitoy millatchilari 1939 yildan 1945 yilgacha fuqarolar urushi xarajatlarini to'lash uchun hukumat pulni bosib chiqarishning klassik namunasidir. Oxir-oqibat, Himolay tog'larida valyuta uchib o'tdi va keyin yo'q qilish uchun eski valyuta olib chiqildi.

Giperinflyatsiya murakkab hodisa bo'lib, bitta tushuntirish barcha holatlarda qo'llanilishi mumkin emas. Biroq, ushbu ikkala modelda ham ishonchni yo'qotish birinchi navbatda bo'ladimi yoki markaziy bank senyoraj, boshqa faza yonadi. Pul massasi tez kengaygan taqdirda, tovarlar va xizmatlar taklifiga nisbatan pul taklifining ko'payishiga javoban narxlar tez o'sib boradi va ishonch yo'qolgan taqdirda, pul-kredit organi o'zida mavjud bo'lgan tavakkal mukofotlariga javob beradi. "bosmaxonalarni ishga tushirish" orqali to'lash.

Shunga qaramay, giperinflyatsiya paytida yuz beradigan ulkan tezlashuv jarayoni (masalan, 1922/23 yilgi Germaniya giperinflyatsiyasi paytida) hali ham noaniq va oldindan aytib bo'lmaydigan bo'lib qolmoqda. Inflyatsion rivojlanishning giperinflyatsiyaga aylanishi juda murakkab hodisa sifatida aniqlanishi kerak, bu esa keyingi tadqiqotlar yo'li bo'lishi mumkin murakkablik iqtisodiyot kabi tadqiqot sohalari bilan birgalikda ommaviy isteriya, tarmoqli effekti, ijtimoiy miya va ko'zgu neyronlari.^[13]

Ta'minotning zarbalari

Bir qator giperinflyatsiyalarga qandaydir o'ta salbiy ta'sir ko'rsatdi ta'minot zarbasi, ko'pincha, lekin har doim ham urushlar, kommunistik tizimning buzilishi yoki tabiiy ofatlar bilan bog'liq emas.^[14]

Modellar

Giperinflyatsiya pul effekti sifatida ko'rinadiganligi sababli, giperinflyatsiya markazining pulga bo'lgan talabi modellari. Iqtisodchilar ikkalasining ham tez o'sishini ko'rishmoqda pul ta'minoti va o'sish pul tezligi agar (pul) inflyatsiya to'xtatilmasa. Ularning ikkalasi ham, ikkalasi ham inflyatsiya va giperinflyatsiyaning asosiy sabablari. Giperinflyatsiya sababi sifatida pul tezligining keskin o'sishi giperinflyatsiyaning "ishonch inqirozi" modeli uchun asosiy o'rinni egallaydi, bu erda sotuvchilar qog'oz valyutaga nominal qiymatidan talab qiladigan xavf mukofoti tez o'sib boradi. Ikkinchi nazariya shundan iboratki, avval aylanma muhit miqdorida tubdan o'sish mavjud bo'lib, uni giperinflyatsiyaning "pul modeli" deb atash mumkin. Ikkala modelda ham ikkinchi effekt birinchisidan kelib chiqadi - yoki pul massasini ko'paytirishga majbur qilishning juda ozligi yoki ishonchni yo'q qiladigan juda ko'p pul.

In ishonch modeli, ba'zi bir voqealar yoki voqealar ketma-ketligi, masalan, jangdagi mag'lubiyatlar yoki valyutani qaytarib beradigan zaxiradagi aktsiyalar, pul chiqaradigan organ bank yoki hukumat bo'ladimi to'lov qobiliyati saqlanib qoladi degan ishonchni olib tashlaydi. Odamlar foydasiz bo'lib qolishi mumkin bo'lgan yozuvlarni ushlab turishni xohlamasliklari uchun, ularni sarflashni xohlashadi. Sotuvchilar, valyuta uchun yuqori xavf mavjudligini tushunib, asl qiymatiga nisbatan ko'proq va katta mukofot talab qiladilar. Ushbu modelga ko'ra, giperinflyatsiyani to'xtatish usuli - bu valyuta zaxirasini o'zgartirish, ko'pincha butunlay yangisini chiqarish orqali amalga oshiriladi. Urush - bu inqirozning tez-tez tilga olinadigan sabablaridan biri, ayniqsa Napoleon davrida yuz bergan urushda yutqazish Vena va ba'zida "yuqumli kasallik" sababli kapitalning qochishi boshqacha. Shu nuqtai nazardan, muomalada bo'lgan vositalarning ko'payishi, hukumat ishonch etishmasligining asosiy sababi bilan murosaga kelmasdan vaqt sotib olishga urinishining natijasidir.

In pul modeli, giperinflyatsiya a ijobiy fikr pulning tez kengayish tsikli. Bu boshqa barcha inflyatsiya bilan bir xil sababga ega: pul chiqaruvchi organlar, markaziy yoki boshqa usullar bilan, spiral xarajatlarni to'lash uchun valyuta ishlab chiqaradi, aksariyat hollarda sust moliyaviy siyosat yoki urushga sarflanadigan xarajatlar. Ishbilarmonlar emitentning valyutani tezkor ravishda kengaytirish siyosatiga sodiqligini sezganlarida, ular valyuta qiymatining kutilayotgan pasayishini qoplash uchun narxlarni belgilaydilar. Keyinchalik, emitent ushbu narxlarni qoplash uchun kengayishni tezlashtirishi kerak, bu esa valyuta qiymatini avvalgidan ham tezroq pasaytiradi. Ushbu modelga muvofiq, emitent "g'olib" bo'lolmaydi va yagona echim - valyutani kengaytirishni keskin to'xtatish. Afsuski, kengayishning oxiri kutilmaganda to'g'irlanganligi sababli valyutani ishlatadiganlar uchun jiddiy moliyaviy shokka olib kelishi mumkin. Ushbu siyosat pensiya, ish haqi va davlat xarajatlarini qisqartirish bilan bir qatorda, uning qismini tashkil etdi Vashington konsensusi 1990-yillarning.

Nima bo'lishidan qat'iy nazar, giperinflyatsiya ta'minotni ham, o'z ichiga oladi pul tezligi. Qaysi biri birinchi o'rinda bo'lsa, bu munozarali masaladir va barcha holatlarga taalluqli universal hikoya bo'lmasligi mumkin. Ammo giperinflyatsiya o'rnatilgandan so'ng, qaysi idoralar tomonidan ruxsat berilgan bo'lsa, pul zaxiralarini ko'paytirish usuli universaldir. Ushbu amaliyot valyuta taklifini unga bo'lgan talabning mos keladigan o'sishisiz oshirib borganligi sababli, valyuta narxi, ya'ni kurs boshqa valyutalarga nisbatan tabiiy ravishda pasayadi. Pul massasining ko'payishi narxlashning aniq yo'nalishlarini pul befoyda bo'lishidan oldin tezda sarf-xarajatlarning umumiy g'azabiga aylantirganda inflyatsiya giperinflyatsiyaga aylanadi. Valyutaning sotib olish qobiliyati shunchalik tez tushib ketadiki, naqd pulni bir kunga ushlab turish - bu xaridorlik qobiliyatini qabul qilib bo'lmaydigan yo'qotishdir. Natijada, hech kim valyutani ushlab turmaydi, bu pul tezligini oshiradi va inqirozni yomonlashtiradi.

Chunki tez ko'tarilayotgan narxlar pulning rolini pasaytiradi qiymat do'koni, odamlar imkon qadar tezroq uni real tovarlarga yoki xizmatlarga sarflashga harakat qilishadi. Shunday qilib, monetar model pul massasining haddan tashqari ko'payishi natijasida pulning tezligi oshishini bashorat qilmoqda. Pul tezligi va narxlari a ayanchli doira, giperinflyatsiya nazoratsiz, chunki zaxira talablarini ko'paytirish, foiz stavkalarini oshirish yoki davlat xarajatlarini qisqartirish kabi oddiy siyosat mexanizmlari samarasiz bo'ladi va ularga tez qadrsizlangan puldan voz kechish va boshqa ayirboshlash vositalariga o'tish orqali javob qaytariladi.

Giperinflyatsiya davrida bank ish yuritadi, 24 soatlik kreditlar beriladi, muqobil valyutaga o'tadi, oltin yoki kumushdan foydalanishga qaytish yoki hatto barter odatiy holga aylanadi. Bugungi kunda oltin yig'adigan odamlarning ko'pi giperinflyatsiyani kutmoqdalar va unga qarshi qotishma bilan kurashmoqdalar. Bundan tashqari, keng bo'lishi mumkin kapital parvozi yoki AQSh dollari kabi "qattiq" valyutaga uchish. Bu ba'zan uchrashadi kapitalni boshqarish, g'oya standartdan, anatemaga va yarim hurmatga qaytgan. Bularning barchasi "g'ayritabiiy" usulda ishlaydigan iqtisodiyotni tashkil etadi, bu esa real ishlab chiqarishning pasayishiga olib kelishi mumkin. Agar shunday bo'lsa, bu giperinflyatsiyani kuchaytiradi, chunki bu "juda kam miqdordagi molni ta'qib qilish" tarkibidagi tovarlar miqdori ham kamayganligini anglatadi. Bu shuningdek, giperinflyatsiyaning shafqatsiz doirasiga kiradi.

Giperinflyatsiyaning ayanchli doirasi yoqilgandan so'ng, deyarli har doim dramatik siyosat vositalari talab qilinadi. Shunchaki foiz stavkalarini oshirish etarli emas. Masalan, Boliviya 1985 yilda giperinflyatsiya davrini boshdan kechirdi, bu erda bir yildan kam vaqt ichida narxlar 12000 foizga o'sdi. Hukumat katta zarar bilan sotayotgan benzin narxini ko'tarib, tinchgina xalq noroziligiga sabab bo'ldi va giperinflyatsiya deyarli to'xtab qoldi, chunki u o'z neftini chet elga sotish orqali qattiq valyuta keltira oldi. Ishonch inqirozi tugadi va odamlar banklarga depozitlarni qaytarib berishdi. Germaniya giperinflyatsiyasi (1919 - 1923 yil noyabr) banklar tomonidan qarzga olingan aktivlar asosida valyuta ishlab chiqarish bilan yakunlandi. Rentenmark. Giperinflyatsiya ko'pincha fuqarolik mojarosi bir tomon g'olib chiqishi bilan tugaganda tugaydi.

Garchi ish haqi va narxlarni nazorat qilish ba'zida inflyatsiyani nazorat qilish yoki oldini olish uchun foydalaniladi, faqatgina narx nazorati yordamida biron bir giperinflyatsiya epizodi tugamagan, chunki savdogarlarni o'zlarining qadrlash narxlaridan ancha past narxlarda sotishga majbur qiladigan narx nazorati narxlarning yanada ko'tarilishiga olib keladigan tanqislikka olib keladi.

Nobel mukofoti g'olib Milton Fridman dedi: "Biz iqtisodchilar ko'p narsani bilmaymiz, ammo etishmovchilikni qanday yaratishni bilamiz. Masalan, agar siz pomidor tanqisligini yaratmoqchi bo'lsangiz, shunchaki chakana sotuvchilar pomidorni ikki sentdan oshiqcha sota olmaydigan qonunni qabul qiling. Bir zumda sizda pomidor etishmovchiligi bo'ladi, neft yoki gaz ham xuddi shunday. "^[15]

Effektlar

Germaniya, 1923 yil: banknotalar shunchalik qadrini yo'qotganki, ular devor qog'ozi sifatida ishlatilgan.

Giperinflyatsiya qimmatli qog'ozlar bozoridagi narxlarni oshiradi, xususiy va davlat jamg'armalarining sotib olish qobiliyatini yo'q qiladi, iqtisodiyotni real aktivlarni to'plash foydasiga buzadi, pul bazasini keltirib chiqaradi (bo'lsin) qandolat yoki qattiq valyuta) mamlakatni tark etish uchun va zarar ko'rgan hududni sarmoyaga qarshi anatemaga aylantiradi.

Giperinflyatsiyaning eng muhim xususiyatlaridan biri bu inflyatsiya qilinadigan pulni barqaror pulga almashtirishdir - avvalgi davrlarda oltin va kumush, so'ngra oltin yoki kumush standartlari buzilgandan keyin nisbatan barqaror xorijiy valyutalar (Tieralar ' Qonun ). Agar inflyatsiya etarlicha yuqori bo'lsa, hukumatning og'ir jarimalar va jarimalar kabi qoidalari, ko'pincha valyuta nazorati bilan birlashtirilib, ushbu valyutani almashtirishga to'sqinlik qila olmaydi. Natijada, inflyatsiya qilinadigan valyuta odatda sotib olish qobiliyati pariteti jihatidan barqaror xorijiy pullarga nisbatan ancha past baholanadi. Shunday qilib, chet elliklar yuqori inflyatsiya ta'sirida bo'lgan mamlakatlarda arzon yashashlari va arzon narxlarda sotib olishlari mumkin. Bundan kelib chiqadiki, o'z vaqtida muvaffaqiyatli valyuta islohotlarini o'tkazishda muvaffaqiyatga erisha olmaydigan hukumatlar, nihoyat, inflyatsiya qilinadigan pulni to'liq almashtirish bilan tahdid qiladigan barqaror xorijiy valyutalarni (yoki ilgari oltin va kumushni) qonuniylashtirishi kerak. Aks holda, ularning soliq tushumlari, shu jumladan inflyatsiya solig'i nolga yaqinlashadi.^[16] Ushbu jarayon kuzatilishi mumkin bo'lgan giperinflyatsiyaning so'nggi epizodi bo'lgan Zimbabve 21-asrning birinchi o'n yilligida. Bunday holda, mahalliy pullar asosan AQSh dollari va Janubiy Afrika randasi tomonidan chiqarildi.

Qiymatni pasaytirishni oldini olish uchun narxlarni nazorat qilishni kuchga kiritish qog'oz pul oltin, kumush, qattiq valyuta yoki boshqa tovarlar ichki qiymatga ega bo'lmagan qog'oz pulni majburan qabul qila olmaydi. Agar valyutani bosib chiqarishga mas'ul bo'lgan tashkilot pulni haddan tashqari bosib chiqarishni qo'llab-quvvatlasa, boshqa omillar bilan kuchaytiruvchi ta'sir ko'rsatsa, odatda giperinflyatsiya davom etadi. Giperinflyatsiya odatda qog'oz pullar bilan bog'liq bo'lib, ular yordamida pul massasini ko'paytirish uchun osonlikcha foydalanish mumkin: plitalarga ko'proq nol qo'shib, bosib chiqaring yoki hatto eski yozuvlarni yangi raqamlar bilan muhrlang.^[17] Tarixiy nuqtai nazardan, turli mamlakatlarda giperinflyatsiyaning ko'plab epizodlari bo'lgan va keyinchalik "qattiq pul" ga qaytish kuzatilgan. Qadimgi iqtisodiyotga qaytish kerak edi qattiq valyuta va barter aylanma vosita haddan tashqari qadrsizlanib qolganida, odatda "yugurish" dan so'ng qiymat do'koni.

Giperinflyatsiya markazlariga investitsiyalar foydasiz bo'lib qoladigan mablag'larni tejashga katta e'tibor. Foiz stavkalarining o'zgarishi ko'pincha giperinflyatsiya yoki hatto yuqori inflyatsiyani ushlab turolmaydi, albatta shartnoma bo'yicha belgilangan foiz stavkalari bilan. Masalan, 1970-yillarda Buyuk Britaniyada inflyatsiya yiliga 25% ga etdi, ammo foiz stavkalari 15% dan oshmadi, keyin esa qisqa muddat ichida va ko'pgina foizli kreditlar mavjud edi. Shartnoma asosida qarzdorning uzoq muddatli qarzini "giperinflyatsiya qilingan naqd pul" bilan tozalashi uchun ko'pincha hech qanday to'siq mavjud emas, shuningdek qarz beruvchi qandaydir tarzda qarzni to'xtatib qo'yishi mumkin emas. Shartnoma bo'yicha "muddatidan oldin qaytarib berish jazolari" ko'pincha penalti asosida amalga oshirilgan (va hozir ham mavjud) n oylik foizlar / to'lovlar; yana katta miqdordagi qarzni to'lash uchun haqiqiy to'siq yo'q. Masalan, urushlararo Germaniyada xususiy va korporativ qarzlarning ko'pi samarali ravishda yo'q qilindi - aniq foizli kreditga ega bo'lganlar uchun.

Lyudvig fon Mises pul massasining to'xtovsiz o'sishining iqtisodiy oqibatlarini tavsiflash uchun "yorilish boom" (nem. Katastrophenhausse) atamasidan foydalangan.^[18] Ko'proq pul taqdim etilganda, foiz stavkalari nolga kamayadi. Fiat pul qiymatini yo'qotayotganini anglagan holda, investorlar pulni ko'chmas mulk, aktsiyalar, hatto san'at kabi aktivlarga joylashtirishga harakat qilishadi; chunki ular "haqiqiy" qiymatni ifodalaydi. Shunday qilib aktivlar narxi oshib bormoqda. Ushbu potentsial spiral jarayon oxir-oqibat pul tizimining qulashiga olib keladi. Kantilon effekti^[19] birinchi navbatda yangi pulni oladigan muassasalar siyosatning manfaatdorlari hisoblanadi.

Natijada

Giperinflyatsiya keskin davolash vositalari bilan tugaydi, masalan shok terapiyasi davlat xarajatlarini qisqartirish yoki valyuta asoslarini o'zgartirish. Buning bir shakli bo'lishi mumkin dollarizatsiya, chet el valyutasidan foydalanish (shart emas AQSh dollari ) milliy valyuta birligi sifatida. Masalan, Ekvadordagi dollarizatsiya 2000 yil sentyabr oyida 75% qiymatining yo'qolishiga javoban boshlangan Ekvador sucre 2000 yil boshida. Ammo, odatda, "dollarizatsiya" hukumatning valyuta nazorati, og'ir jarimalar va jarimalar yordamida uni oldini olishga qaratilgan barcha harakatlariga qaramay amalga oshiriladi. Shunday qilib, hukumat pul qiymatini barqarorlashtiradigan muvaffaqiyatli valyuta islohotini amalga oshirishga harakat qilishi kerak. Agar bu islohot bilan muvaffaqiyat qozona olmasa, inflyatsiyani barqaror pul bilan almashtirish davom etmoqda. Shunday qilib, yaxshi (xorijiy) pullar inflatsiya qilinadigan valyutadan foydalanishni to'liq siqib chiqargan kamida etti ta tarixiy holat bo'lishi ajablanarli emas. Oxir oqibat, hukumat birinchisini qonuniylashtirishi kerak edi, aks holda uning daromadi nolga tushishi mumkin edi.^[16]

Giperinflyatsiya har doim azob chekayotgan odamlar uchun travmatik tajriba bo'lib kelgan va keyingi siyosiy rejim deyarli har doim uning takrorlanishiga yo'l qo'ymaslik uchun siyosat olib boradi. Ko'pincha bu nemis bilan bo'lganidek, Markaziy bankni narxlarning barqarorligini saqlashga juda tajovuzkor qilishni anglatadi Bundesbank, yoki ba'zi bir qattiq valyuta asoslariga o'tish, masalan valyuta taxtasi. Ko'pgina hukumatlar juda qattiq qaror qabul qilishdi ish haqi va narxlarni nazorat qilish giperinflyatsiya ortidan, ammo bu pul massasi inflyatsiyasining keyingi o'sishini oldini olmaydi markaziy bank va har doim iste'mol tovarlari keng tarqalgan tanqislikka olib keladi, agar nazorat qat'iyan amalga oshirilsa.

Valyuta

Giperinflyatsiyani boshdan kechirayotgan mamlakatlarda markaziy bank tez-tez katta va katta nominaldagi pullarni bosib chiqaradi, chunki kichikroq nominallar yaroqsiz bo'lib qoladi. Buning natijasida noan'anaviy yirik nominaldagi pullar ishlab chiqarilishi mumkin banknotalar shu jumladan, 1 000 000 000 yoki undan ortiq miqdorda denominatsiya qilingan.

• 1923 yil oxiriga kelib Veymar Respublikasi Germaniya nominal qiymati ellik milliard marka bo'lgan ikki trillion markali banknotalar va pochta markalarini muomalaga chiqargan. Veymar hukumati Reyxsbank tomonidan chiqarilgan eng yuqori qiymatdagi banknotning nominal qiymati 100 trillion markaga teng edi (10)¹⁴; 100,000,000,000,000; 100 million).^[20][21] Inflyatsiya avjiga chiqqan paytda bir AQSh dollari 4 trillion nemis markasiga teng edi. Ushbu eslatmalarni chop etayotgan firmalardan biri Reichsbankga 32,776,899,763,734,490,417,05 (3,28 × 10) uchun hisob-fakturani taqdim etdi.¹⁹, taxminan 33 kvintillion ) belgilar.^[22]
• Rasmiy ravishda muomalaga chiqarilgan eng yirik banknot 1946 yilda Vengriya milliy banki 100 kvintillion miqdorida pengő (10²⁰; 100,000,000,000,000,000,000; 100 million million) rasm. (10 baravar qimmat bo'lgan banknot, 10²¹ (1 sekstillion ) pengő, bosilgan, ammo chiqarilmagan rasm.) Banknotalarda raqamlar to'liq ko'rsatilmagan: "yuz million b.-pengu" ("yuz million trillion pengu") va "bir milliard b.-pengu" o'rniga yozilgan. Bu 100,000,000,000,000 ni tashkil qiladi Zimbabve dollari eng ko'p nol ko'rsatilgan banknota.
• Ikkinchi Jahon Urushidan keyingi Vengriyadagi giperinflyatsiya eng yuqori oylik inflyatsiya darajasi bo'yicha rekord o'rnatdi - 41,9 kvadrillion foiz (4,19 × 10)¹⁶%; 41,900,000,000,000,000%) 1946 yil iyul oyiga, narxlar har 15,3 soatda ikki baravarga ko'paygan. Taqqoslash uchun, so'nggi raqamlar (2008 yil 14-noyabr holatiga ko'ra) Zimbabvening yillik inflyatsiya darajasini 89,7 darajasida baholamoqda sekstillion (10²¹) foiz.^[23] O'sha davrdagi eng yuqori oylik inflyatsiya darajasi 79,6 milliard foizni (7,96 × 10) tashkil etdi¹⁰%; 79,600,000,000%), va ikki baravarga ko'payishi 24,7 soat.

Katta raqamlardan foydalanishni oldini olish usullaridan biri bu yangi valyuta birligini e'lon qilishdir. (Masalan, Markaziy bank 10.000.000.000 dollar o'rniga 1 ta yangi dollar = 1.000.000.000 eski dollarni o'rnatishi mumkin, shuning uchun yangi kupyura "10 ta yangi dollar" deb yozilgan bo'lishi mumkin.) Yaqinda bunga misol sifatida Turkiyaning " Lira 2005 yil 1-yanvar kuni, eski Turk lirasi (TRL) ga aylantirildi Yangi turk lirasi (TRY) 1 000 000 dan 1 yangi turk lirasiga qadar. Bu valyutaning haqiqiy qiymatini pasaytirmasa ham, u deyiladi qayta nomlash yoki qayta baholash inflyatsiya darajasi past bo'lgan mamlakatlarda ham vaqti-vaqti bilan sodir bo'ladi. Giperinflyatsiya paytida valyuta inflyatsiyasi shunchalik tez sodir bo'ladiki, qayta baholashdan oldin veksellar juda ko'p songa etadi.

Ba'zi kupyuralarda nominaldagi o'zgarishlarni ko'rsatish uchun muhr bosilgan edi, chunki yangi kupyuralarni bosib chiqarish juda uzoq vaqt talab qilishi mumkin edi. Yangi yozuvlar chop etilguniga qadar ular eskirgan bo'lar edi (ya'ni foydali bo'lishi uchun ular juda kam nominalga ega edi).

Metall tangalar giperinflyatsiyaning tezkor talofati bo'lgan, chunki metall parchalari uning nominal qiymatidan juda yuqori bo'lgan. Katta miqdordagi tanga odatda noqonuniy eritilib, qattiq valyutaga eksport qilindi.

Hukumatlar ko'pincha turli xil usullar bilan inflyatsiyaning haqiqiy darajasini yashirishga harakat qilishadi. Ushbu harakatlarning hech biri inflyatsiyaning asosiy sabablarini hal qilmaydi; va agar ular topilsa, ular valyutaga bo'lgan ishonchni yanada susaytirishi va inflyatsiyaning yanada oshishiga olib keladi. Narxlarni boshqarish odatda tanqislik va xazinaga olib keladi va nazorat qilinadigan tovarlarga bo'lgan talab juda yuqori bo'lib, bu buzilishlarni keltirib chiqaradi ta'minot zanjirlari. Iste'molchilar uchun mavjud bo'lgan mahsulotlar kamayishi yoki yo'q bo'lib ketishi mumkin, chunki korxonalar endi bunday tovarlarni qonuniy narxlarda ishlab chiqarishni va / yoki tarqatishni davom ettirishni iqtisodiy hisoblamaydilar, bu esa tanqislikni yanada kuchaytiradi.

Kompyuterlashtirilgan pul muomalasi tizimlari bilan bog'liq muammolar ham mavjud. Zimbabveda Zimbabve dollarining giperinflyatsiyasi paytida ko'pchilik avtomatlashtirilgan kassalar va to'lov kartalari mashinalari bilan kurashdi arifmetik toshish mijozlar sifatida xatolar bir vaqtning o'zida ko'p milliard va trillionlab dollarni talab qildi.^[24]

E'tiborli giperinflyatsion davrlar

Avstriya

Hanke Krus giperinflyatsiya jadvali, unda 56 ta giperinflyatsiya epizodi ko'rsatilgan (Kagan ta'rifi asosida)

1922 yilda Avstriyada inflyatsiya 1426% ga etdi va 1914 yildan 1923 yil yanvarigacha iste'mol narxlari indeksi 11 836 baravar o'sdi, eng yuqori kupyura 500 000 donada Avstriya kronlari.^[25][a] Keyin Birinchi jahon urushi, aslida barcha davlat korxonalari zarar bilan ishladilar va poytaxt Venada davlat ishchilari soni avvalgi monarxiyaga qaraganda ko'proq edi, garchi yangi respublika uning kattaligining sakkizdan bir qismiga teng bo'lsa ham.^[27]

Giperinflyatsiya rivojlanib borayotganiga, jumladan, oziq-ovqat mahsulotlarini to'plashni va xorijiy valyutadagi chayqovchiliklarni o'z ichiga olgan avstriyaliklarning javobini kuzatib, Britaniyaning Venadagi legatsiyasining tijorat kotibi Ouen S. Fillpotts shunday deb yozgan edi: "avstriyaliklar kemada o'tirgan odamlarga o'xshaydi, uni boshqara olmaydilar. Ammo kutish paytida ularning aksariyati yon tomonlari va pastki qismlaridan har biri o'zi uchun raflarni kesishni boshlashadi. Yog'och shu tarzda ularni oziq-ovqatlarini pishirish uchun ishlatishi mumkin, sovuqqa va ochlarga dengizchilarga o'xshash ko'rinish. Aholida vatanparvarlik bilan bir qatorda jasorat va kuch yo'q. "^[28]

• Boshlanish va tugash sanasi: 1921 yil oktyabr - 1922 yil sentyabr
• Inflyatsiyaning eng yuqori oyi va darajasi: 1922 yil avgust, 129%^[29]

Boliviya

Giperinflyatsiyani kuchayishi Boliviya aziyat chekkan va ba'zida nogiron bo'lib, uning iqtisodiyoti va valyuta 1970 yildan beri. Bir vaqtning o'zida 1985 yilda mamlakatda yillik inflyatsiya darajasi 20000% dan oshgan. Fiskal va pul islohoti inflyatsiya darajasini 1990 yillarga kelib bir raqamga tushirdi va 2004 yilda Boliviya inflyatsiyaning boshqariladigan 4.9% darajasiga erishdi.^[30]

1987 yilda Boliviya pesosi o'rniga milliondan bir stavkagacha bo'lgan yangi boliviano (1 AQSh dollari 1,8-1,9 million pesoga teng bo'lganida) bilan almashtirildi. O'sha paytda 1 ta yangi boliviano taxminan 1 AQSh dollariga teng edi.

Braziliya

Braziliya giperinflyatsiyasi 1985 yildan (davom etgan yil) davom etdi harbiy diktatura yakunlandi) 1994 yilgacha, narxlar 184,901,570,954,39% ga ko'tarildi (yoki 1.849×10¹¹ foiz) o'sha paytda^[31] pulni nazoratsiz bosib chiqarish tufayli.^[32] Giperinflyatsiyani o'z ichiga olishga harakat qilgan ko'plab iqtisodiy rejalar mavjud edi, shu jumladan nollarni kamaytirish, narx muzlaydi va hatto musodara qilish bank hisobvaraqlari.^[32][33]

Eng yuqori ko'rsatkich 1990 yil mart oyida bo'lib, o'sha paytda hukumat inflyatsiya indeksi 82,39% ga yetgan.^[32][34] Giperinflyatsiya 1994 yil iyulda tugadi Haqiqiy reja Itamar Franko hukumati davrida.^[35] Inflyatsiya davrida Braziliya jami oltita turli xil valyutalarni qabul qildi, chunki hukumat tez devalvatsiya va nollar sonining ko'payishi tufayli doimiy ravishda o'zgarib turardi.^[35][32]

• Boshlanish va tugash sanasi: 1985 yil yanvar - o'rta-iyul. 1994 yil
• Inflyatsiyaning eng yuqori oyi va darajasi: 1990 yil mart, 82,39%^[34][36]

Xitoy

1948 yildan 1949 yilgacha, oxiriga yaqin Xitoy fuqarolar urushi, Xitoy Respublikasi giperinflyatsiya davridan o'tgan. 1947 yilda eng yuqori nominaldagi banknota 50 ming edi yuan. 1948 yil o'rtalariga kelib eng yuqori nominal 180 000 000 yuanni tashkil etdi. 1948 yildagi valyuta islohoti 1 yuan = 3,000,000 yuan kursi bilan yuanni oltin yuanga almashtirdi. Bir yilga yetmagan vaqt ichida eng yuqori qiymat 10 000 000 oltin yuanni tashkil etdi. Fuqarolar urushining so'nggi kunlarida kumush yuan qisqacha 500,000,000 oltin yuan miqdorida muomalaga kiritildi. Shu bilan birga, mintaqaviy bank tomonidan chiqarilgan eng yuqori nominal qiymati 6 000 000 000 yuan (Shinjon viloyat banki tomonidan 1949 yilda chiqarilgan). Keyin renminbi yangi kommunistik hukumat tomonidan o'rnatildi, giperinflyatsiya to'xtadi va 1: 10000 eski bahosi bilan qayta baholandi yuan 1955 yilda.

1. Birinchi qism:
   • Boshlanish va tugash sanasi: 1943 yil iyul - 1945 yil avgust
   • Eng yuqori oy va inflyatsiya darajasi: 1945 yil iyun, 302%
2. Ikkinchi qism:
   • Boshlanish va tugash sanasi: 1947 yil oktyabr - 1949 yil may o'rtalarida
   • Eng yuqori oy va inflyatsiya darajasi: 5,070% aprel^[37]

Frantsiya

Davomida Frantsiya inqilobi va birinchi respublika, Milliy Assambleya zayomlar chiqarildi, ularning ba'zilari hibsga olingan cherkov mulki bilan ta'minlandi tayinlovchilar.^[38] Napoleon ularni 1803 yilda frank bilan almashtirgan, o'sha paytda atamalar asosan befoyda edi. Stiven D. Dillayening ta'kidlashicha, muvaffaqiyatsizlikning sabablaridan biri bu asosan London orqali qog'oz pullarning katta miqdordagi qalbakilashtirilganligi. Dillayening so'zlariga ko'ra: "O'n ettita ishlab chiqarish korxonasi Londonda to'liq ishlagan, to'rt yuz kishilik kuch soxta va soxta tayinlovchilarni ishlab chiqarishga bag'ishlangan."^[39]

• Boshlanish va tugash sanasi: 1795 yil may - 1796 yil noyabr
• Inflyatsiyaning eng yuqori oyi va darajasi: 1796 yil avgust o'rtalarida 304%^[40]

Germaniya (Veymar Respublikasi)

5 million marka tanga 1923 yil yanvar oyida 714,29 dollarga teng bo'lar edi, ammo 1923 yil oktyabrga kelib faqat bir sentning mingdan bir qismiga teng edi.

1922 yil noyabrga kelib, muomaladagi pulning oltin qiymati Birinchi Jahon Urushigacha 300 million funtdan 20 million funtga tushdi. Reyxsbank notalarni cheksiz bosib chiqarishga javob berdi va shu bilan belgining qadrsizlanishini tezlashtirdi. Lord D'Abernon Londonga bergan hisobotida shunday deb yozgan edi: "Butun tarix davomida hech bir it Reyxbankning tezligi bilan o'z dumini orqasidan yugurmagan".^[41][42] Germany went through its worst inflation in 1923. In 1922, the highest denomination was 50,000 belgilar. By 1923, the highest denomination was 100,000,000,000,000 (10¹⁴) Marks. In December 1923 the exchange rate was 4,200,000,000,000 (4.2 × 10¹²) Marks to 1 US dollar.^[43] In 1923, the rate of inflation hit 3.25 × 10⁶ percent per month (prices double every two days). Beginning on 20 November 1923, 1,000,000,000,000 old Marks were exchanged for 1 Rentenmark, so that 4.2 Rentenmarks were worth 1 US dollar, exactly the same rate the Mark had in 1914.^[43]

1. Birinchi bosqich:
   • Start and end date: January 1920 – January 1920
   • Peak month and rate of inflation: January 1920, 56.9%
2. Ikkinchi bosqich:
   • Start and end date: August 1922 – December 1923
   • Peak month and rate of inflation: November 1923, 29,525%^[29]

Greece (German–Italian occupation)

With the German invasion in April 1941, there was an abrupt increase in prices. This was due to psychological factors related to the fear of shortages and to the hoarding of goods. During the German and Italian Yunonistonning eksa ishg'oli (1941–1944), the agricultural, mineral, industrial etc. production of Greece were used to sustain the occupation forces, but also to secure provisions for the Afrika Korps. One part of these "sales" of provisions was settled with bilateral clearing through the German DARAJALAR and the Italian Sagic companies at very low prices. As the value of Greek exports in drachmas fell, the demand for drachmas followed suit and so did its forex rate. While shortages started due to naval blockades and hoarding, the prices of commodities soared. The other part of the "purchases" was settled with drachmas secured from the Bank of Greece and printed for this purpose by private printing presses. As prices soared, the Germans and Italians started requesting more and more drachmas from the Bank of Greece to offset price increases; each time prices increased, the note circulation followed suit soon afterwards. For the year starting November 1943, the inflation rate was 2.5 × 10¹⁰%, the circulation was 6.28 × 10¹⁸ drachmae and one gold sovereign cost 43,167 billion drachmas. The hyperinflation started subsiding immediately after the departure of the German occupation forces, but inflation rates took several years before they fell below 50%.^[44]

• Start and end date: June 1941 – January 1946
• Peak month and rate of inflation: December 1944, 3.0×10¹⁰%

Vengriya

The 100 million b.-pengő note was the highest denomination of banknote ever issued, worth 10²⁰ or 100 quintillion Vengriya pengu (1946). B.-pengő was short for "billió pengő", i.e. 10¹² pengő.

The Trianon shartnomasi and political instability between 1919 and 1924 led to a major inflation of Hungary's currency. In 1921, in an attempt to stop this inflation, the national assembly of Hungary passed the Hegedűs reforms, including a 20% levy on bank deposits, but this precipitated a mistrust of banks by the public, especially the peasants, and resulted in a reduction in savings, and thus an increase in the amount of currency in circulation.^[45] Due to the reduced tax base, the government resorted to printing money, and in 1923 inflation in Hungary reached 98% per month.

Between the end of 1945 and July 1946, Hungary went through the highest inflation ever recorded. In 1944, the highest banknote value was 1,000 pengő. By the end of 1945, it was 10,000,000 pengő, and the highest value in mid-1946 was 100,000,000,000,000,000,000 (10²⁰) pengő. A special currency, the adópengő (or tax pengő) was created for tax and postal payments.^[46] The inflation was such that the value of the adópengő was adjusted each day by radio announcement. On 1 January 1946, one adópengő equaled one pengő, but by late July, one adópengő equaled 2,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 or 2×10²¹ (2 sekstillion ) pengő.

When the pengő was replaced in August 1946 by the forint, the total value of all Hungarian banknotes in circulation amounted to ​¹⁄_1,000 of one US cent.^[47] Inflation had peaked at 1.3 × 10¹⁶% per month (i.e. prices doubled every 15.6 hours).^[48] On 18 August 1946, 400,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 or 4×10²⁹ pengő (four hundred quadrilliard ustida long scale used in Hungary, or four hundred oktillion kuni qisqa o'lchov ) became 1 forint.

• Start and end date: August 1945 – July 1946
• Peak month and rate of inflation: July 1946, 41.9×10¹⁵%^[49]

Malaya (Japanese occupation)

Banana banknotes issued by the Japanese Government during the occupation of Malaya. The term "banana notes" originates from the motiflar of banana trees on the currency's 10-dollar banknote.

Malaya and Singapore were under Yapon istilosi from 1942 until 1945. The Japanese issued "banana notes " as the official currency to replace the Bo'g'ozlar valyutasi issued by the British. During that time, the cost of basic necessities increased drastically. As the occupation proceeded, the Japanese authorities printed more money to fund their wartime activities, which resulted in hyperinflation and a severe depreciation in value of the banana note.

From February to December 1942, $100 of Straits currency was worth $100 in Japanese scrip, after which the value of Japanese scrip began to erode, reaching $385 on December 1943 and $1,850 one year later. By 1 August 1945, this had inflated to $10,500, and 11 days later it had reached $95,000. After 13 August 1945, Japanese scrip had become valueless.^[50]

Shimoliy Koreya

North Korea has most likely experienced hyperinflation from December 2009 to mid-January 2011. Based on the price of rice, North Korea's hyperinflation peaked in mid-January 2010, but according to black market exchange-rate data, and calculations based on purchasing power parity, North Korea experienced its peak month of inflation in early March 2010. These data points are unofficial, however, and therefore must be treated with a degree of caution.^[51]

Peru

In modern history, Peru underwent a period of hyperinflation period in the 1980s to the early 1990s starting with President Fernando Belaúnde's second administration, heightened during Alan García's first administration, to the beginning of Alberto Fujimori's term. Over 3,210,000,000 old soles would be worth one USD. Garcia's term introduced the inti, which worsened inflation into hyperinflation. Peru's currency and economy were stabilized under Fujimori's Nuevo Sol program, which has remained Peru's currency since 1991.^[52]

Polsha

Polsha has gone through two episodes of hyperinflation since the country regained independence following the end of Birinchi jahon urushi, the first in 1923, the second in 1989–1990. Both events resulted in the introduction of new currencies. 1924 yilda złoty replaced the original currency of post-war Poland, the mark. This currency was subsequently replaced by another of the same name in 1950, which was assigned the ISO code of PLZ. As a result of the second hyperinflation crisis, the current new złoty was introduced in 1990 (ISO code: PLN). Maqolaga qarang Polsha złoty for more information about the currency's history.

The newly independent Poland had been struggling with a large budget deficit since its inception in 1918 but it was in 1923 when inflation reached its peak. The exchange rate to the American dollar went from 9 Polish marks per dollar in 1918 to 6,375,000 marks per dollar at the end of 1923. A new personal 'inflation tax' was introduced. The resolution of the crisis is attributed to Wladyslaw Grabski, kim bo'ldi Polsha bosh vaziri in December 1923. Having nominated an all-new government and being granted extraordinary lawmaking powers by the Seym for a period of six months, he introduced a new currency, established a new national bank and scrapped the inflation tax, which took place throughout 1924.^[53]

The economic crisis in Poland in the 1980s was accompanied by rising inflation when new money was printed to cover a budget deficit. Although inflation was not as acute as in 1920s, it is estimated that its annual rate reached around 600% in a period of over a year spanning parts of 1989 and 1990. The economy was stabilised by the adoption of the Balcerowicz rejasi in 1989, named after the main author of the reforms, minister of finance Leszek Balcerowicz. The plan was largely inspired by the previous Grabski's reforms.^[53]

Filippinlar

The Japanese government occupying the Philippines during Ikkinchi jahon urushi issued fiat currencies for general circulation. The Japanese-sponsored Ikkinchi Filippin Respublikasi boshchiligidagi hukumat Xose P. Laurel at the same time outlawed possession of other currencies, most especially "guerrilla money". The fiat money's lack of value earned it the derisive nickname "Mickey Mouse money". Survivors of the war often tell tales of bringing suitcases or bayong (native bags made of woven coconut or buri leaf strips) overflowing with Japanese-issued bills. Early on, 75 Mickey Mouse peso could buy one duck egg.^[54] In 1944, a box of matches cost more than 100 Mickey Mouse pesos.^[55]

In 1942, the highest denomination available was 10 pesos. Before the end of the war, because of inflation, the Japanese government was forced to issue 100-, 500-, and 1000-peso notes.

• Start and end date: January 1944 – December 1944
• Peak month and rate of inflation: January 1944, 60%^[56]

Sovet Ittifoqi

A seven-year period of uncontrollable spiralling inflation occurred in the early Sovet Ittifoqi, running from the earliest days of the Bolsheviklar inqilobi in November 1917 to the reestablishment of the oltin standart ning kiritilishi bilan chervonets qismi sifatida Yangi iqtisodiy siyosat. The inflationary crisis effectively ended in March 1924 with the introduction of the so-called "gold ruble" as the country's standard currency.

The early Soviet hyperinflationary period was marked by three successive redenominations of its currency, in which "new rubles" replaced old at the rates of 10,000:1 (1 January 1922), 100:1 (1 January 1923), and 50,000:1 (7 March 1924), respectively.

Between 1921 and 1922, inflation in the Sovet Ittifoqi reached 213%.

Venesuela

The value of one US dollar in Venezuelan bolivares on the black market through time, according to DolarToday.com. Blue and red vertical lines represent every time the currency has lost 99% of its value. This has happened almost five times since 2012, meaning that the currency is worth, as of November 2020, almost 1 billion times less than in August 2012.

Venezuela's hyperinflation began in November 2016.^[57] Inflyatsiya Venesuela "s bolivar fuerte (VEF) in 2014 reached 69%^[58] and was the highest in the world.^[59][60] In 2015, inflation was 181%, the highest in the world and the highest in the country's history at that time,^[61][62] 800% in 2016,^[63] over 4,000% in 2017,^{[64][65][66][67]} and 1,698,488% in 2018,^[68] with Venezuela spiraling into hyperinflation.^[69] While the Venezuelan government "has essentially stopped" producing official inflation estimates as of early 2018, one estimate of the rate at that time was 5,220%, according to inflation economist Stiv Xanke ning Jons Xopkins universiteti.^[70]

Venesuelalik bolívar fuerte banknotes ranging from 2 bolivares to 100,000 bolivares printed within a 10-year period. The magnitude of the currency scalars signifies the extent of the hyperinflation. The banknotes were demonetized in 2018 following the introduction of the bolívar soberano, with 5 fewer zeros.

Inflation has affected Venezuelans so much that in 2017, some people became video game oltin dehqonlar and could be seen playing games such as RuneScape to sell in-game currency or characters for real currency. In many cases, these gamers made more money than salaried workers in Venezuela even though they were earning just a few dollars per day.^[71] During the Christmas season of 2017, some shops would no longer use price tags since prices would inflate so quickly, so customers were required to ask staff at stores how much each item was.^[72]

The Xalqaro valyuta fondi estimated in 2018 that Venezuela's inflation rate would reach 1,000,000% by the end of the year.^[73] This forecast was criticized by Steve H. Hanke, professor of applied economics at The Johns Hopkins University and senior fellow at the Cato Institute. According to Hanke, the IMF had released a "bogus forecast" because "no one has ever been able to accurately forecast the course or the duration of an episode of hyperinflation. But that has not stopped the IMF from offering inflation forecasts for Venezuela that have proven to be wildly inaccurate".^[74]

In July 2018, hyperinflation in Venezuela was sitting at 33,151%, "the 23rd most severe episode of hyperinflation in history".^[74]

In April 2019, the International Monetary Fund estimated that inflation would reach 10,000,000% by the end of 2019.^[75]

2019 yil may oyida Venesuela Markaziy banki released economic data for the first time since 2015. According to this release, the inflation of Venezuela was 274% in 2016, 863% in 2017 and 130,060% in 2018.^[76] The annualised inflation rate as of April 2019 was estimated to be 282,972.8% as of April 2019, and cumulative inflation from 2016 to April 2019 was estimated at 53,798,500%.^[77]

The new reports imply a contraction of more than half of the economy in five years, according to the Financial Times "one of the biggest contractions in Latin American history".^[78] According two undisclosed sources from Reuters, the release of these numbers was due to pressure from China, a Maduro ally. One of these sources claims that the disclosure of economic numbers may bring Venezuela into compliance with the IMF, making it harder to support Xuan Gaydo davomida prezidentlik inqirozi.^[79] At the time, the IMF was not able to support the validity of the data as they had not been able to contact the authorities.^[79]

• Start and end date: November 2016 – present
• Peak month and rate of inflation: April 2018, 234% (Xanke estimate);^[80] September 2018, 233% (Milliy assambleya smeta)^[81]

Yugoslaviya

A 500 billion Yugoslav dinar banknote circa 1993, the largest nominal value ever officially printed in Yugoslavia, the final result of hyperinflation.

Yugoslaviya went through a period of hyperinflation and subsequent currency reforms from 1989 to 1994. One of several regional conflicts accompanying the dissolution of Yugoslavia was the Bosnian War (1992–1995). The Belgrade government of Slobodan Milošević backed ethnic Serbian forces in the conflict, resulting in a United Nations boycott of Yugoslavia. The UN boycott collapsed an economy already weakened by regional war, with the projected monthly inflation rate accelerating to one million percent by December 1993 (prices double every 2.3 days).^[82]

The highest denomination in 1988 was 50,000 dinorlar. By 1989 it was 2,000,000 dinars. In the 1990 currency reform, 1 new dinar was exchanged for 10,000 old dinars. In the 1992 currency reform, 1 new dinar was exchanged for 10 old dinars. The highest denomination in 1992 was 50,000 dinars. By 1993, it was 10,000,000,000 dinars. In the 1993 currency reform, 1 new dinar was exchanged for 1,000,000 old dinars. Before the year was over, however, the highest denomination was 500,000,000,000 dinars. In the 1994 currency reform, 1 new dinar was exchanged for 1,000,000,000 old dinars. In another currency reform a month later, 1 novi dinar was exchanged for 13 million dinars (1 novi dinar = 1 Nemis belgisi at the time of exchange). The overall impact of hyperinflation was that 1 novi dinar was equal to 1 × 10²⁷ – 1.3 × 10²⁷ pre-1990 dinars. Yugoslaviya 's rate of inflation hit 5 × 10¹⁵% cumulative inflation over the time period 1 October 1993 and 24 January 1994.

1. First episode:
   • Start and End Date: Sept. 1989 – Dec. 1989
   • Peak month and rate of inflation: December 1989, 59.7%
2. Second episode:
   • Start and end date: April 1992 – January 1994
   • Peak month and rate of inflation: January 1994, 3.13×10⁹%^[83]

Zimbabve

The 100 trillion Zimbabve dollari banknote (10¹⁴ dollars), equal to 10²⁷ (1 oktillion ) pre-2006 dollars.

Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe was one of the few instances that resulted in the abandonment of the local currency. At independence in 1980, the Zimbabve dollari (ZWD) was worth about US$1.25. Afterwards, however, rampant inflation and the collapse of the economy severely devalued the currency. Inflation was relatively steady until the early 1990s when economic disruption caused by failed er islohoti agreements and rampant government corruption resulted in reductions in food production and the decline of foreign investment. Several multinational companies began to'plash retail goods in warehouses in Zimbabwe and just south of the border, preventing commodities from becoming available on the market.^{[84][85][86][87]} The result was that to pay its expenditures Mugabe's government and Gideon Gono "s Zaxira banki printed more and more notes with higher face values.

Hyperinflation began early in the 21st century, reaching 624% in 2004. It fell back to low triple digits before surging to a new high of 1,730% in 2006. The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe revalued on 1 August 2006 at a ratio of 1,000 ZWD to each second dollar (ZWN), but year-to-year inflation rose by June 2007 to 11,000% (versus an earlier estimate of 9,000%). Larger denominations were progressively issued in 2008:

1. 5 May: banknotes or "bearer cheques" for the value of ZWN 100 million and ZWN 250 million.^[88]
2. 15 May: new bearer cheques with a value of ZWN 500 million (then equivalent to about US$2.50).^[89]
3. 20 May: a new series of notes ("agro cheques") in denominations of $5 billion, $25 billion and $50 billion.
4. 21 July: "agro cheque" for $100 billion.^[90]

Inflation by 16 July officially surged to 2,200,000%^[91] with some analysts estimating figures surpassing 9,000,000%.^[92] As of 22 July 2008 the value of the ZWN fell to approximately 688 billion per US$1, or 688 trillion pre-August 2006 Zimbabwean dollars.^{[93][tekshirib bo'lmadi ]}

On 1 August 2008, the Zimbabwe dollar was redenominated at the ratio of 10¹⁰ ZWN to each third dollar (ZWR).^[94] On 19 August 2008, official figures announced for June estimated the inflation over 11,250,000%.^[95] Zimbabwe's annual inflation was 231,000,000% in July^[96] (prices doubling every 17.3 days). By October 2008 Zimbabwe was mired in hyperinflation with wages falling far behind inflation. In this dysfunctional economy hospitals and schools had chronic staffing problems, because many nurses and teachers could not afford bus fare to work. Most of the capital of Harare was without water because the authorities had stopped paying the bills to buy and transport the treatment chemicals. Desperate for foreign currency to keep the government functioning, Zimbabwe's central bank governor, Gideon Gono, sent runners into the streets with suitcases of Zimbabwean dollars to buy up American dollars and South African rand.^[97]

For periods after July 2008, no official inflation statistics were released. Prof. Steve H. Hanke overcame the problem by estimating inflation rates after July 2008 and publishing the Hanke Hyperinflation Index for Zimbabwe.^[98] Prof. Hanke's HHIZ measure indicated that the inflation peaked at an annual rate of 89.7 sextillion percent (89,700,000,000,000,000,000,000%, or 8.97×10²²%) in mid-November 2008. The peak monthly rate was 79.6 billion percent, which is equivalent to a 98% daily rate, or around 7×10^¹⁰⁸% yearly rate. At that rate, prices were doubling every 24.7 hours. Note that many of these figures should be considered mostly theoretical since hyperinflation did not proceed at this rate over a whole year.^[99]

At its November 2008 peak, Zimbabwe's rate of inflation approached, but failed to surpass, Hungary's July 1946 world record.^[99] On 2 February 2009, the dollar was redenominated for the third time at the ratio of 10¹² ZWR to 1 ZWL, only three weeks after the $100 trillion banknote was issued on 16 January,^[100][101] but hyperinflation waned by then as official inflation rates in USD were announced and foreign transactions were legalised,^[99] and on 12 April the Zimbabwe dollar was abandoned in favour of using only foreign currencies. The overall impact of hyperinflation was US$1 = 10²⁵ ZWD.

• Start and end date: March 2007 – mid November 2008
• Peak month and rate of inflation: mid November 2008, 7.96×10¹⁰%^[102]

Examples of high inflation

Countries have experienced periods of very high inflation, that did not reach hyperinflation, as defined as a oylik inflation rate exceeding 50% per month.

Qadimgi Xitoy

As the first user of Fiat valyutasi, China was also the first country to experience high inflation. Paper currency was introduced during the Tang sulolasi, and was generally welcomed. It maintained its value, as successive Chinese governments put in place strict controls on issuance. The convenience of paper currency for trade purposes led to strong demand for paper currency. It was only when discipline on quantity supplied broke down that inflation emerged.^[103] The Yuan sulolasi (1271–1368) was the first to print large amounts of fiat paper money to fund its wars, resulting in very high inflation.

Qadimgi Rim

Davomida Uchinchi asr inqirozi, Rome underwent high inflation caused by years of coinage devalvatsiya.^[104]

Muqaddas Rim imperiyasi

Between 1620 and 1622 the Kreuzer fell from 1 Reyxsthaler to 124 Kreuzer in end of 1619 to 1 Reichstaler to over 600 (regionally over 1000) Kreuzer in end of 1622, during the O'ttiz yillik urush. This is a monthly inflation rate of over 20.6% (regionally over 34.4%).

Iroq

Between 1987 and 1995 the Iroq dinori went from an official value of 0.306 Dinars/USD (or US$3.26 per dinar, though the black market rate is thought to have been substantially lower) to 3,000 dinars/USD due to government printing of 10s of trillions of dinars starting with a base of only tens of billions. That equates to approximately 315% inflation per year averaged over that eight-year period.^[105]

Meksika

In spite of increased oil prices in the late 1970s (Mexico is a producer and exporter), Mexico defaulted on its external debt in 1982. As a result, the country suffered a severe case of capital flight and several years of acute inflation and peso devaluation, leading to an accumulated inflation rate of almost 27,000% between December 1975 and late 1988. On 1 January 1993, Mexico created a new currency, the nuevo peso ("new peso", or MXN), which chopped three zeros off the old peso (One new peso was equal to 1,000 old MXP pesos).

Ekvador

Between 1998 and 1999, Ekvador faced a period of economic instability that resulted from a combined banking crisis, currency crisis, and sovereign debt crisis.^[106] Severe inflation and devaluation of the Ecuadorean Sucre lead to President Jamil Mahuad announcing on 9 January 2000 that the AQSh dollari would be adopted as the national currency.

Despite the government's efforts to curb inflation, the Sucre depreciated rapidly at the end of 1999, resulting in widespread informal use of U.S. dollars in the financial system. As a last resort to prevent hyperinflation, the government formally adopted the U.S. dollar in January 2000. The stability of the new currency was a necessary first step towards economic recovery, but the exchange rate was fixed at 25,000:1, which resulted in great losses of wealth.^[107]

Rim Misr

In Roman Egypt, where the best documentation on pricing has survived, the price of a measure of wheat was 200 drachmae in 276 AD, and increased to more than 2,000,000 drachmae in 334 AD, roughly 1,000,000% inflation in a span of 58 years.^[108]

Although the price increased by a factor of 10,000 over 58 years, the annual rate of inflation was only 17.2% (1.4% monthly) compounded.

Ruminiya

Romania experienced high inflation in the 1990s. The highest denomination in 1990 was 100 ley and in 1998 was 100,000 lei. By 2000 it was 500,000 lei. In early 2005 it was 1,000,000 lei. In July 2005 the lei was replaced by the new leu at 10,000 old lei = 1 new leu. Inflation in 2005 was 9%.^[109] In July 2005 the highest denomination became 500 lei (= 5,000,000 old lei).

Dnestryani

Ikkinchi Dnestryani rubli consisted solely of banknotes and suffered from high inflation, necessitating the issue of notes overstamped with higher denominations. 1 and sometimes 10 ruble become 10,000 ruble, 5 ruble become 50,000 and 10 ruble become 100,000 ruble. 2000 yilda 1 yangi rubl = 1 000 000 eski rubl kursida yangi rubl joriy etildi.

kurka

Since the end of 2017 Turkey has high inflation rates. Taxminlarga ko'ra yangi saylovlar took place frustrated because of the impending crisis to forestall.^{[110][111][112]} In October 2017, inflation was at 11.9%, the highest rate since July 2008.^[113] The Turkish lira fall from 1.503 TRY = 1 US dollar in 2010 to 5.5695 TRY = 1 US dollar in August 2018.^[114]

Qo'shma Shtatlar

Davomida Inqilobiy urush, qachon Kontinental Kongress authorized the printing of paper called continental currency, the monthly inflation rate reached a peak of 47% in November 1779 (Bernholz 2003: 48). These notes depreciated rapidly, giving rise to the expression "not worth a continental". One cause of the inflation was counterfeiting by the British, who ran a press on HMS Feniks, moored in New York Harbor. The counterfeits were advertised and sold almost for the price of the paper they were printed on.^[115]

Davomida AQSh fuqarolar urushi between January 1861 and April 1865, the Confederate States decided to finance the war by printing money. The Lerner Commodity Price Index of leading cities in the eastern Confederacy states subsequently increased from 100 to 9,200 in that time.^[116] In the final months of the Civil War, the Konfederatsiya dollari was almost worthless. Similarly, the Union government inflated its Yashillar, with the monthly rate peaking at 40% in March 1864 (Bernholz 2003: 107).^[117]

Vetnam

Vietnam went through a period of chaos and high inflation in the late 1980s, with inflation peaking at 774% in 1988, after the country's "price-wage-currency" reform package, led by then-Deputy Prime Minister Trần Phương, muvaffaqiyatsiz tugadi.^[118] High inflation also occurred in the early stages of the socialist-oriented market economic reforms commonly referred to as the Đổi Mới.

Ten most severe hyperinflations in world history

Ushbu bo'lim bo'lishi kerak yangilangan. Iltimos, ushbu maqolani so'nggi voqealarni yoki yangi mavjud ma'lumotlarni aks ettirish uchun yangilang. (Noyabr 2020)

Highest monthly inflation rates in history[119][120]
Mamlakat	Currency name	Oy	Tezlik	Equivalent daily inflation rate	Time required for prices to double	Highest denomination
Vengriya	Vengriya pengu	1946 yil iyul	4.19×1016 %	207.19%	14.82 hours	100 quintillion (1020)
Zimbabve	Zimbabve dollari	2008 yil noyabr	7.96×1010 %	98.01%	24.35 hours	100 trillion (1014)
Yugoslaviya	Yugoslav dinar	1994 yil yanvar	3.13×108 %	64.63%	1.39 days	500 billion (5×1011)
Srpska Respublikasi	Srpska respublikasi dinori	1994 yil yanvar	2.97×108 %	64.35%	1,40 kun	50 milliard (5×1010)
Germaniya	Nemis Papiermark	October 1923	29,500%	20.89%	3.65 kun	100 trillion (1014)
Gretsiya	Yunoncha draxma	1944 yil oktyabr	13,800%	17.88%	4.21 days	100 billion (1011)
Xitoy	Xitoy yuani	1949 yil aprel	5,070%	14.06%	5.27 days	6 mlrd
Armaniston	Arman dramasi va Rossiya rubli	1993 yil noyabr	438%	5.77%	12.36 days	50,000 (ruble)
Turkmaniston	Turkmaniston manati	1993 yil noyabr	429%	5.71%	12.48 days	500
Tayvan (Japanese rule)	Tayvan iyeni	1945 yil avgust	399%	5.50%	12.94 days	1,000

Units of inflation

Inflyatsiya darajasi is usually measured in percent per year. It can also be measured in percent per month or in price doubling time.

${displaystyle {hbox{New price }}y{hbox{ years later}}={hbox{old price}} imes left(1+{frac {hbox{inflation}}{100}}ight)^{y}}$

${displaystyle {hbox{Monthly inflation}}=100 imes left(left(1+{frac {hbox{inflation}}{100}}ight)^{frac {1}{12}}-1ight)}$

${displaystyle {hbox{Price doubling time}}={frac {1}{log _{2}left(1+{frac {hbox{inflation}}{100}}ight)}}}$

${displaystyle {hbox{Years per added zero of the price}}={frac {1}{log _{10}left(1+{frac {hbox{inflation}}{100}}ight)}}}$

Often, at redenominations, three zeroes are cut from the bills. It can be read from the table that if the (annual) inflation is for example 100%, it takes 3.32 years to produce one more zero on the price tags, or 3 × 3.32 = 9.96 years to produce three zeroes. Thus can one expect a redenomination to take place about 9.96 years after the currency was introduced.

Shuningdek qarang

• Surunkali inflyatsiya
• Valyuta inqirozi
• Qarz
• Fiat pullari
• Oltin sarmoya sifatida
• Hyperstagflation
• Inflyatsiyani hisobga olish
• Inflyatsiya
• Iqtisodiyot rejasi
• Nolinchi zarba
• Pul yig'ish (iqtisod)
• Blokada
• Salbiy foiz stavkalari

Izohlar

Adabiyotlar

Qo'shimcha o'qish

Tashqi havolalar

• Pullar uchun aravachalar: 5 martalik valyutalar qulab tushdi Commodity.com saytida