Ishsiz tiklanish - Jobless recovery
A ishsiz tiklanish yoki ishsiz o'sish iqtisodiy hodisadir, unda a makroiqtisodiyot tajribalar o'sish uning darajasini saqlab qolish yoki kamaytirish bilan birga ish bilan ta'minlash. Bu atama iqtisodchi Nik Perna tomonidan 1990-yillarning boshlarida kiritilgan.[1][2]
Sabablari
Iqtisodchilar hanuzgacha ishsiz tiklanishning sabablari va davolash usullari to'g'risida ikkiga bo'linmoqdalar: ba'zilari bu ko'paygan deb ta'kidlaydilar hosildorlik orqali avtomatlashtirish ruxsat berdi iqtisodiy o'sish kamaytirmasdan ishsizlik.[3] Boshqa iqtisodchilarning ta'kidlashicha, avtomatizatsiyani ayblash luddit xato[4] va ishsizlarni qayta tiklash mehnat bozoridagi tarkibiy o'zgarishlardan kelib chiqadi va ishchilar ish joylarini yoki tarmoqlarni o'zgartirganda ishsizlikka olib keladi.[5]
Sanoat konsolidatsiyasi
Ba'zilar ta'kidlashlaricha, so'nggi paytlarda Qo'shma Shtatlarda ish o'rinlari yaratilmaganligi ko'paygan sanoat konsolidatsiyasi va o'sishi monopoliya yoki oligopoliya kuch.[6] Dalil ikki xil: birinchidan, kichik biznes Amerikada ko'p ish o'rinlarini yaratadi, ikkinchidan, kichik korxonalar mavjud bo'lgan korxonalar oldida boshlash va o'sishda ko'proq qiyinchiliklarga duch kelmoqdalar (solishtiring bolalar sanoatining argumenti, alohida firmalarga emas, balki sanoat darajalarida qo'llaniladi).
Aholining o'sishi va bandlikning o'sishi
Aholining o'sishi bandlik o'sishidan tashqari, ishsizlar sog'ayib ketishini anglash masalasida ham ko'rib chiqilishi kerak. Immigrantlar va ishchi kuchiga yangi kiruvchilar ko'pincha kam ish haqini qabul qilishadi doimiy ishsizlik ilgari ish bilan ta'minlanganlar orasida.[7][8]
Ajablanarlisi shundaki, AQSh Mehnat statistikasi byurosi (BLS) mehnatga layoqatli aholi (16 yoshdan 65 yoshgacha) uchun ajratilgan ma'lumotlar to'plamlarini taklif qilmaydi.[9] BLS ma'lumot to'plamlarining ko'pchiligida pensiya yoshidagi shaxslarni o'z ichiga olgan holda, aholi sonining ko'payishi bilan bog'liq holda ish bilan ta'minlashni tahlil qilish buzilishi mumkin.[10] Bundan tashqari, BLS nashrlarini o'qiyotganda, "Ishchi kuchi" atamasi to'g'risida noto'g'ri taxminlar paydo bo'lishi mumkin, millionlab ish bilan ta'minlanganlar rasmiy ta'rifga kiritilmagan. BLS tomonidan belgilangan ishchi kuchi,[11] rasmiy ishsizlarning qat'iy ta'rifi (U-3),[12] va rasmiy ravishda ish bilan band bo'lganlar (1 soat yoki undan ko'proq).[13]
Mehnat statistikasi byurosi, Oylik mehnat sharhi, 2013 yil dekabr.[10]
Quyidagi jadvalda va kiritilgan jadvalda 65 yoshgacha bo'lganlar sonining o'sishiga nisbatan ish bilan bandlikning yillik o'sishi tasvirlangan. Bunaqa, bolalar boomeri pensiyalar ma'lumotlardan ko'rib chiqish uchun omil sifatida olib tashlanadi. Jadvalda Mehnat statistikasi byurosi, Hozirgi aholini o'rganish, uchun Fuqarolik institutsiz aholi va 1948 yildan boshlab 2013 yil oktyabrni o'z ichiga olgan tegishli bandlik darajasi, 16 yoshdan katta va 65 yoshdan katta yosh guruhlari.[9] Keyinchalik mehnatga layoqatli aholi 65 yoshdan oshganlarni fuqarolik institutidan bo'lmagan aholidan va bandlik darajasidan chiqarib tashlab aniqlanadi. An'anaviy mehnatga layoqatli kichik guruhga ajratilgan holda, bandlik darajasi va aholi sonining o'sishi o'n yilga to'g'ri keladi, ish bilan bandlik darajasi esa o'n yilga taqqoslash uchun ko'rsatiladi.
Ko'rib chiqilganida, 2000 yillarning birinchi o'n yilligida, o'n yilga kelib, Qo'shma Shtatlar mehnatga layoqatli yoshdagi aholi bilan taqqoslaganda 95% ishsizlarga duch keldi.
| Fuqarolik institutsiz aholi | Mehnatga layoqatli aholi | Bandlik darajasi | Mehnat yoshidagi bandlik | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yil | Yoshi: 16 yosh va undan yuqori | Yoshi: 65 yil & ustida | Yoshi: 16 dan 65 yoshgacha. | O'sish - o'n yil | Yoshi: 16 yosh va undan yuqori | Yoshi: 65 yil & ustida | Yoshi: 16 dan 65 gacha | O'sish - o'n yil | Foizli emp. |
| 1948 | 103,468,000 | 10,881,000 | 92,587,000 | 58,554,000 | 2,906,000 | 55,648,000 | |||
| 1949 | 104,524,000 | 11,191,000 | 93,333,000 | — | 57,712,000 | 2,926,000 | 54,786,000 | — | — |
| 1950 | 104,872,000 | 11,534,000 | 93,338,000 | 59,352,000 | 2,845,000 | 56,507,000 | |||
| 1951 | 104,810,000 | 11,918,000 | 92,892,000 | 60,252,000 | 2,858,000 | 57,394,000 | |||
| 1952 | 105,812,000 | 12,334,000 | 93,478,000 | 60,748,000 | 3,000,000 | 57,748,000 | |||
| 1953 | 107,623,000 | 13,257,000 | 94,366,000 | 59,796,000 | 2,882,000 | 56,914,000 | |||
| 1954 | 108,892,000 | 13,520,000 | 95,372,000 | 59,990,000 | 2,963,000 | 57,027,000 | |||
| 1955 | 110,296,000 | 13,925,000 | 96,371,000 | 63,268,000 | 3,213,000 | 60,055,000 | |||
| 1956 | 111,526,000 | 14,215,000 | 97,311,000 | 63,619,000 | 3,213,000 | 60,406,000 | |||
| 1957 | 113,013,000 | 14,516,000 | 98,497,000 | 63,598,000 | 3,089,000 | 60,509,000 | |||
| 1958 | 114,429,000 | 14,821,000 | 99,608,000 | 63,266,000 | 2,855,000 | 60,411,000 | |||
| 1959 | 116,040,000 | 15,148,000 | 100,892,000 | 7,559,000 | 64,927,000 | 3,024,000 | 61,903,000 | 7,117,000 | 94.15% |
| 1960 | 118,001,000 | 15,508,000 | 102,493,000 | 65,287,000 | 3,176,000 | 62,111,000 | |||
| 1961 | 119,214,000 | 15,861,000 | 103,353,000 | 65,531,000 | 2,885,000 | 62,646,000 | |||
| 1962 | 121,236,000 | 16,880,000 | 104,356,000 | 66,585,000 | 2,821,000 | 63,764,000 | |||
| 1963 | 123,360,000 | 17,014,000 | 106,346,000 | 67,791,000 | 2,765,000 | 65,026,000 | |||
| 1964 | 125,468,000 | 17,296,000 | 108,172,000 | 69,543,000 | 2,913,000 | 66,630,000 | |||
| 1965 | 127,294,000 | 17,580,000 | 109,714,000 | 71,819,000 | 2,926,000 | 68,893,000 | |||
| 1966 | 128,730,000 | 17,860,000 | 110,870,000 | 73,600,000 | 2,892,000 | 70,708,000 | |||
| 1967 | 130,936,000 | 18,194,000 | 112,742,000 | 75,337,000 | 3,030,000 | 72,307,000 | |||
| 1968 | 133,120,000 | 18,500,000 | 114,620,000 | 76,699,000 | 3,086,000 | 73,613,000 | |||
| 1969 | 135,489,000 | 18,825,000 | 116,664,000 | 15,772,000 | 78,789,000 | 3,069,000 | 75,720,000 | 13,817,000 | 87.60% |
| 1970 | 138,529,000 | 19,202,000 | 119,327,000 | 78,651,000 | 3,032,000 | 75,619,000 | |||
| 1971 | 141,666,000 | 19,605,000 | 122,061,000 | 80,527,000 | 3,005,000 | 77,522,000 | |||
| 1972 | 145,446,000 | 20,229,000 | 125,217,000 | 83,424,000 | 2,909,000 | 80,515,000 | |||
| 1973 | 148,479,000 | 20,536,000 | 127,943,000 | 86,390,000 | 2,787,000 | 83,603,000 | |||
| 1974 | 151,494,000 | 21,214,000 | 130,280,000 | 86,169,000 | 2,794,000 | 83,375,000 | |||
| 1975 | 154,589,000 | 21,803,000 | 132,786,000 | 86,689,000 | 2,680,000 | 84,009,000 | |||
| 1976 | 157,438,000 | 22,309,000 | 135,129,000 | 89,850,000 | 2,791,000 | 87,059,000 | |||
| 1977 | 160,377,000 | 22,874,000 | 137,503,000 | 94,183,000 | 2,903,000 | 91,280,000 | |||
| 1978 | 163,272,000 | 23,450,000 | 139,822,000 | 97,669,000 | 3,006,000 | 94,663,000 | |||
| 1979 | 166,300,000 | 24,067,000 | 142,233,000 | 25,569,000 | 100,013,000 | 3,002,000 | 97,011,000 | 21,291,000 | 83.27% |
| 1980 | 168,883,000 | 24,597,000 | 144,286,000 | 99,579,000 | 2,907,000 | 96,672,000 | |||
| 1981 | 171,166,000 | 25,109,000 | 146,057,000 | 99,562,000 | 2,928,000 | 96,634,000 | |||
| 1982 | 173,199,000 | 25,619,000 | 147,580,000 | 98,849,000 | 2,878,000 | 95,971,000 | |||
| 1983 | 175,121,000 | 26,160,000 | 148,961,000 | 102,803,000 | 2,878,000 | 99,925,000 | |||
| 1984 | 177,306,000 | 26,712,000 | 150,594,000 | 106,049,000 | 2,797,000 | 103,252,000 | |||
| 1985 | 179,112,000 | 27,266,000 | 151,846,000 | 108,063,000 | 2,841,000 | 105,222,000 | |||
| 1986 | 181,547,000 | 27,791,000 | 153,756,000 | 110,588,000 | 2,909,000 | 107,679,000 | |||
| 1987 | 183,620,000 | 28,362,000 | 155,258,000 | 113,679,000 | 3,126,000 | 110,553,000 | |||
| 1988 | 185,402,000 | 28,875,000 | 156,527,000 | 115,978,000 | 3,264,000 | 112,714,000 | |||
| 1989 | 187,165,000 | 29,462,000 | 157,703,000 | 15,470,000 | 117,698,000 | 3,352,000 | 114,346,000 | 17,335,000 | 112.06% |
| 1990 | 190,017,000 | 29,453,000 | 160,564,000 | 118,110,000 | 3,256,000 | 114,854,000 | |||
| 1991 | 191,798,000 | 29,893,000 | 161,905,000 | 117,395,000 | 3,193,000 | 114,202,000 | |||
| 1992 | 193,784,000 | 30,396,000 | 163,388,000 | 118,990,000 | 3,341,000 | 115,649,000 | |||
| 1993 | 195,794,000 | 30,784,000 | 165,010,000 | 121,578,000 | 3,394,000 | 118,184,000 | |||
| 1994 | 197,765,000 | 31,181,000 | 166,584,000 | 124,729,000 | 3,641,000 | 121,088,000 | |||
| 1995 | 199,508,000 | 31,629,000 | 167,879,000 | 125,136,000 | 3,676,000 | 121,460,000 | |||
| 1996 | 201,636,000 | 31,902,000 | 169,734,000 | 127,903,000 | 3,807,000 | 124,096,000 | |||
| 1997 | 204,098,000 | 32,071,000 | 172,027,000 | 130,785,000 | 3,933,000 | 126,852,000 | |||
| 1998 | 206,270,000 | 32,275,000 | 173,995,000 | 132,732,000 | 3,855,000 | 128,877,000 | |||
| 1999 | 208,832,000 | 32,538,000 | 176,294,000 | 18,591,000 | 134,696,000 | 3,984,000 | 130,712,000 | 16,366,000 | 88.03% |
| 2000 | 213,736,000 | 33,590,000 | 180,146,000 | 137,846,000 | 4,244,000 | 133,602,000 | |||
| 2001 | 216,315,000 | 33,823,000 | 182,492,000 | 136,269,000 | 4,300,000 | 131,969,000 | |||
| 2002 | 218,741,000 | 34,004,000 | 184,737,000 | 136,599,000 | 4,248,000 | 132,351,000 | |||
| 2003 | 222,509,000 | 34,432,000 | 188,077,000 | 138,556,000 | 4,711,000 | 133,845,000 | |||
| 2004 | 224,640,000 | 34,796,000 | 189,844,000 | 140,278,000 | 4,902,000 | 135,376,000 | |||
| 2005 | 227,425,000 | 35,208,000 | 192,217,000 | 142,918,000 | 5,263,000 | 137,655,000 | |||
| 2006 | 230,108,000 | 35,841,000 | 194,267,000 | 146,081,000 | 5,617,000 | 140,464,000 | |||
| 2007 | 233,156,000 | 36,603,000 | 196,553,000 | 146,334,000 | 5,787,000 | 140,547,000 | |||
| 2008 | 235,035,000 | 37,522,000 | 197,513,000 | 143,350,000 | 6,084,000 | 137,266,000 | |||
| 2009 | 236,924,000 | 38,362,000 | 198,562,000 | 22,268,000 | 137,953,000 | 6,193,000 | 131,760,000 | 1,048,000 | 4.71% |
| 2010 | 238,889,000 | 39,045,000 | 199,844,000 | 139,159,000 | 6,376,000 | 132,783,000 | |||
| 2011 | 240,584,000 | 40,364,000 | 200,220,000 | 140,681,000 | 6,893,000 | 133,788,000 | |||
| 2012 | 244,350,000 | 42,695,000 | 201,655,000 | 143,060,000 | 7,412,000 | 135,648,000 | |||
| 2013 | 246,745,000 | 44,155,000 | 202,590,000 | 144,423,000 | 7,748,000 | 136,675,000 | |||
| 2014 | 249,027,000 | 45,685,000 | 203,342,000 | 147,190,000 | 8,140,000 | 139,050,000 | |||
| 2015 | 251,936,000 | 47,269,000 | 204,667,000 | 149,703,000 | 8,552,000 | 141,151,000 | |||
| 2016 | 254,742,000 | 48,837,000 | 205,905,000 | 7,343,000 | 151,798,000 | 8,820,000 | 142,978,000 | 11,218,000 | 152.77% |
| 2000 yilgacha va undan keyingi taqqoslashlar (mehnat yoshi) | |||||||||
| Pop. O'sish | Bandlikning o'sishi | ||||||||
| 1900-yillar | 1950 yildan 1999 yilgacha | 82,961,000 | 75,926,000 | 91.52% | |||||
| 2000-yillar | 2000 yildan 2016 yilgacha | 29,611,000 | 12,266,000 | 41.42% | |||||
| Qalin "Ishchi yosh: o'sish o'n yilligi" hisob-kitobini ishlab chiqarish uchun foydalaniladigan ma'lumotni bildiradi O'n yillik misol = 1949 yil oxiri 1959 yil oxirigacha Manba: Mehnat statistikasi byurosi, joriy aholi so'rovi[9] | |||||||||
| Seriya identifikatori: LNU00000000 Mavsumiy tuzatilmagan seriyaning nomi: (Unadj.) Aholi darajasi Ishchi kuchi holati: Fuqarolik instituti bo'lmagan aholining yoshi: 16 yosh va undan yuqori | |||||||||
| Seriya identifikatori: LNU02000000 Mavsumiy tuzatilmagan seriyaning nomi: (Unadj.) Bandlik darajasi Ishchi kuchi holati: ish bilan ta'minlangan yoshi: 16 yosh va undan yuqori | |||||||||
| Seriya identifikatori: LNU00000097 Mavsumiy tuzatilmagan seriyaning nomi: (Unadj.) Aholi darajasi - 65 yil. & ustida Ishchi kuchi holati: Fuqarolik instituti bo'lmagan aholining yoshi: 65 yosh va undan yuqori | |||||||||
| Seriya identifikatori: LNU02000097 Mavsumiy ravishda tuzatilmagan Seriyaning nomi: (Unadj.) Bandlik darajasi - 65 yil. & ustida Ishchi kuchi holati: ish bilan ta'minlangan yoshi: 65 yosh va undan yuqori | |||||||||
Shuningdek qarang
Izohlar va ma'lumotnomalar
- ^ "SANOAT YANGI DAVLAT URUSHI UChUN SIYOSIY PLANLAR QABUL QILADI; QADIMGI TARTIB YOZILDI". Nyu-York Tayms. 1935 yil 6-dekabr. Olingan 10-noyabr 2013.
1935 yil dekabrdagi maqolalarni to'lash 7-qism - Sayt xaritasi - Nyu-York ...
- ^ Smit, Liza (2010-08-17). "Ishsiz tiklanish: 1990 yildan beri yangi normal holat | Investopedia". Olingan 2016-08-17.
- ^ Avtomatik reaktsiya, Iqtisodchi, 2010-09-09
- ^ Sharqiy, Uilyam (2001). O'sishning qiyin vazifasi: Tropikadagi iqtisodchilarning sarguzashtlari va noto'g'ri hodisalari. Kembrij, Massachusets: MIT Press. pp.53–54. ISBN 0-262-55042-3.
- ^ Erika L. Groshen; Simon Potter (2003 yil avgust). "Strukturaviy o'zgarish ishsiz tiklanishiga yordam berganmi?". Nyu-York Federal zaxira banki.
- ^ Amerikaning ish joyini kim buzdi? Nima uchun sudralib boruvchi konsolidatsiya Amerika tirikchiligini buzmoqda., Barri C. Lin va Fillip Longman tomonidan, Vashington oylik
- ^ Kamerota doktori, Stiven A. (2004 yil oktyabr). "Ishsiz tiklanish ?: muhojirlarning daromadlari va mahalliy yo'qotishlar". Immigratsiyani o'rganish markazi. Olingan 2 mart 2014.
2000 yil va 2004 yil mart oyi o'rtasida ishsiz voyaga etgan mahalliy aholi soni 2,3 millionga, ish bilan ta'minlangan kattalar immigrantlari soni esa 2,3 millionga ko'paygan.
- ^ Peri, Jovanni. "Immigratsiya, mehnat bozori va samaradorlik" (PDF). Cato Journal, Vol. 32, № 1 (2012 yil qish). Arxivlandi asl nusxasi (PDF) 2012 yil 9 oktyabrda. Olingan 2 mart 2014.
Bunday holda firmalar immigrantlarga ularning mahsuldorligidan kamroq haq to'laydilar va firmalar daromadlarini oshirdilar. Immigrantlarning bunday tejamkorligi firmalar uchun mahsuldorlikni oshirish vazifasini bajaradi.
- ^ a b v "Mehnat statistikasi byurosi". Hozirgi aholini o'rganish. Mehnat statistikasi byurosi. Olingan 9-noyabr 2013.
- ^ a b Toossi, Mitra (2013 yil 1-dekabr). "Ishchi kuchining 2022 yilgacha prognozlari: ishchi kuchining ishtirok etish darajasi pasayishda davom etmoqda" (PDF). Mehnat statistikasi byurosi. Olingan 1 mart 2014.
- ^ "Lug'at". Ish kuchi. Mehnat statistikasi byurosi. Olingan 2 mart 2014.
Ishchi kuchi (joriy aholi so'rovi) ishchi kuchi ushbu lug'atdagi ta'riflarga muvofiq ish bilan band yoki ishsiz deb tasniflangan barcha odamlarni o'z ichiga oladi.
- ^ "Iqtisodiy yangiliklar". Uy-ro'zg'or ma'lumotlari Jadval A-15. Mehnatni to'liq ishlatmaslikning alternativ choralari. Mehnat statistikasi byurosi. Olingan 2 mart 2014.
- ^ "BLS haqida ma'lumot". Tez-tez so'raladigan savollar (tez-tez so'raladigan savollar). Mehnat statistikasi byurosi. Olingan 2 mart 2014.
Shablonlarga qarang